Game Analysis

Cleveland (-2.5) vs PITTSBURGH

· New Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz held Joe Burrow’s Bengals to a league-low 2.6 yards per play in week 1. Schwartz’s defense was a far cry from the conservative approach of previous DC Joe Woods as the Browns had a 41% blitz rate in week 1 (4th-highest) and a 28% man coverage rate (8th-highest).

· Steelers WR Diontae Johnson is out for about 4 weeks with a strained hamstring and his absence will make it more difficult for Kenny Pickett against Cleveland’s aggressive man defense. Johnson graded 25th by PFF against man coverage last season and he’s worth 0.4 points according to our numbers.

· Pittsburgh’s defense also suffered an impactful loss in interior defender Cameron Heyward, who ranked 4th in pass-rushing efficiency last year. The Steelers have allowed a half-yard per rush more with Heyward off the field since the start of 2021 and the effect is particularly noticeable on inside runs where the Browns excel behind Pro Bowl guards Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller.

· Pittsburgh’s offensive line surrendered a 46% pressure rate in week 1 (4th-worst) now RT Chukwuma Okorafor is banged up. Okorafor ranked 19th in pass-blocking efficiency on true pass-blocking sets last season but it is a difficult matchup for him not to be at full strength. Cleveland’s edge defenders Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith combined for 12 pressures last game.

· Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth gritting through a chest injury and his 52% success rate when targeted last season was the highest among Pittsburgh’s receivers.

· The Browns had a loss of their own with former All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin going down. Conklin ranked 4th in pass-blocking efficiency last year. Backup tackle Dawand Jones had an impressive preseason and did not allow a single pressure filling in for Conklin last week but the rookie will have an entirely new challenge on Monday night against TJ Watt, who had 2 quarterback hits and 3 sacks in week 1.

· Deshaun Watson averaged only 3.5 yards per pass play in the first half last week but gained 6.9 yppp in the second half when the rain let up a little. Watson has faced precipitation in every home start as a Brown thus far, but conditions look decent in Pittsburgh on Monday night.

· Our model makes Cleveland a 2.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 40.5.