Game Analysis

Lean – Cleveland (+2.5) over PITTSBURGH

· Pittsburgh is alive for the playoffs but Cleveland also has plenty to play for as they get reps with the new franchise quarterback. Deshaun Watson struggled in negative scoring conditions in his first 5 games but he averaged 6.7 yards per pass play last week playing in normal weather conditions and I believe he has a chance to improve versus the Steelers.

· Watson has a first down rate versus the blitz 17 percentage points higher than his first down rate against a standard pass rush. That difference ranks 3rd-highest in the league and Pittsburgh’s defense blitzes on 31% of dropbacks, ranking 7th in the NFL.

· Steelers interior defender Cameron Heyward has 53 pressures (4th) but he will be shut down by LG Joel Bitonio, who ranks 11th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Pittsburgh’s defense is conceding just a 37% success rate on the ground since TJ Watt came back into the lineup in week 10 (7th) and they will be tested by a Browns offense ranked 5th in EPA/rush this year.

· The market has gotten a little too hot on Kenny Pickett after the rookie has won his last four starts in which he’s taken all the snaps. Pickett is averaging just 5.3 yppp this season (31st) so the winning has very little to do with his performance.

· Steelers WR George Pickens has 14 deep receptions in 2022 (4th) but the rookie will be contained downfield by CB Martin Emerson, who ranks 16th in coverage grade by PFF. Furthermore, Cleveland S Grant Delpit will take away Pickens over the top. Delpit was targeted four times in coverage last week and came away with two interceptions while not conceding a reception.

· I’m currently doing this projection with the Browns missing right tackle Jack Conklin and cornerback Denzel Ward, but head coach Kevin Stefanski said he was not ready to rule either player out.

· Our model favors the Steelers by just 0.3 points, with a predicted total of 42.0 points.