Cleveland Browns @

New York Jets

Sun, Dec 27
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 455
Odds: New York Jets +6.5, Total: 43.5

Game Analysis

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Note: This play was released earlier in the week when the total was 48 points – before news of Cleveland’s wide receiver shortage due to Covid.

Strong Opinion – Under (48) – Cleveland (-9.5) vs NY Jets

Baker Mayfield completed 12 of his 14 pass attempts 10+ yards downfield last Sunday night and is now averaging 8.4 yards per pass play over the last month. There’s no reason to think Mayfield will cool off in this game as New York’s pass defense ranks 30th by our numbers and they will be without interior defender Quinnen Williams, who has 7 sacks but is now out for the year with a neck injury.  Cleveland’s offensive line has conceded the lowest pressure rate in the NFL but third string rookie RG Nick Harris will struggle versus the Jets’ other interior defender John Franklin-Myers (3rd in pass rushing efficiency). Cleveland will now be missing some receivers due to Covid and the projected total has dropped a point.

New York’s tackles Mekhi Becton and George Fant have no chance to contain edge defender Myles Garrett, who has 11 sacks (6th in the NFL despite missing two games). Sam Darnold will be under pressure and likely won’t have his safety valve underneath. Jamison Crowder is averaging 7.8 targets per game with Darnold as the starting QB but no slot receiver has gained more than 35 yards against the Browns in their previous five games.

Our model makes Cleveland a 7.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 43.5 and the Under is a Strong Opinion at 47 points or higher.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Browns
  • Jets
CLE
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 31.2 39.2
  • Succ Pass Plays 49.3% 47.8%
  • Sack Rate 4.4% 7.0%
  • Int Rate 1.9% 2.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.0% 18.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 34.2% 34.1%
  • NYPP 7.0 6.3



Rush


  • Rush Plays 32.0 25.9
  • RB YPR 4.8 4.0
  • Stuff Rate 21.1% 17.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 48.7% 55.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 52.3% 33.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.8 4.3




Game

  • All Snaps 63.2 65.2
  • Early Down Succ 51.8% 53.1%
  • Succ Rate 49.0% 51.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 44.1% 35.0%
  • Yards Per Play 5.9 5.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.1%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.3 27.2
  • Run Ratio 50.7% 40.6%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.1 30.3
  • Game Control 0.9 -0.9
 
  • Points 26.8 28.3
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