Cleveland Browns @

New York Giants

Sun, Dec 20
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 361
Odds: New York Giants +6.5, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

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Note: This game is a Strong Opinion on Cleveland at the current line of -6.5 points.

1-Star Best Bet – *Cleveland (-5) over NY GIANTS

New York’s win against the Seahawks has people believing that Colt McCoy is a competent backup quarterback, but McCoy is averaging just 3.5 yards per pass play this season and the Giants’ offense will likely struggle to move the ball in his second start. LT Andrew Thomas has been the worst pass blocking tackle in the NFL this season and the rookie has no chance of staying in front of Myles Garrett (10.5 sacks). Cleveland’s defense will also get their top cornerback Denzel Ward back on the field after he missed the past three games with a calf injury. Ward is allowing only 0.85 yards per cover snap (15th) and is worth nearly a point by our numbers.

Baker Mayfield is averaging 8.4 yppp during the past three games and he should take advantage of a Giants secondary dealing with injury issues. CB James Bradberry is New York’s best defender but he will miss this game due to covid. Bradberry is conceding just 0.82 yards per cover snap while the other Giants CBs are allowing 1.34 yards per cover snap. Also, starting nickelback Darnay Holmes will miss his second straight game with a knee injury so Jarvis Landry (13th in yards per route run) will spend most of this game lining up across from backups.

Our model favors the Browns by 9.5 points, with a predicted total of 46.0 points. Cleveland is 1-Star Best Bet at -5.5 points or less and a Strong Opinion up to -6.5 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Browns
  • Giants
CLE
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 29.8 40.4
  • Succ Pass Plays 49.1% 48.1%
  • Sack Rate 4.8% 6.3%
  • Int Rate 1.9% 2.2%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.5% 18.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 33.4% 32.4%
  • NYPP 7.0 6.3



Rush


  • Rush Plays 32.3 25.4
  • RB YPR 4.8 3.9
  • Stuff Rate 22.3% 18.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 48.0% 55.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 53.8% 30.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.8 4.1




Game

  • All Snaps 62.2 65.8
  • Early Down Succ 51.5% 53.1%
  • Succ Rate 48.6% 51.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 44.4% 32.7%
  • Yards Per Play 5.8 5.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 1.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.7 27.0
  • Run Ratio 51.8% 39.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.3 30.0
  • Game Control 1.3 -1.3
 
  • Points 25.5 26.8
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