Cleveland Browns @

Los Angeles Chargers

Sun, Oct 10
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 471
Odds: Los Angeles Chargers -2.5, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – LA CHARGERS (-2.5) over Cleveland

Note: With Browns players DE Clowney and LT Wills now out there is now enough value to make LA Chargers a Strong Opinion at -2.5 at -115 odds or better.

The Chargers haven’t been using Justin Herbert’s ability to attack defenses vertically, as the QB has just a 7.3 yard average depth of target (25th). However, we might see Herbert look downfield more often in this matchup. Austin Ekeler ranks 4th among running backs with 18 receptions but he will be contained by rookie LB┬áJeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who leads all linebackers with four pass breakups. Meanwhile, Browns nickelback Troy Hill conceded just two receptions from 6 targets last week and he will limit Keenan Allen in the slot.

Los Angeles backup RT Storm Norton is surrendering 5.7 pressures per game since taking over for Bryan Bulaga and he has no chance of staying in front of edge defender Jadeveon Clowney (7th in pass rushing efficiency). LT Rashawn Slater ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency and the rookie will battle against edge rusher Myles Garrett, who leads the league with 6 sacks.

Baker Mayfield is averaging 6.8 yppp (16th) even after missing some open throws and being held to 145 passing yards last week. Mayfield will look to right the ship, but the Chargers are conceding just 5.3 yards per target to opposing running backs and will take away the screen game to Kareem Hunt.

Our model favors the Chargers by 4.7 points, with a predicted total of 48.2 points, and the match up favors LAC. The LA Chargers are a Strong Opinion at -2.5 at -115 odds or better.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Browns
  • Chargers
CLE
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 31.3 34.3
  • Succ Pass Plays 53.6% 39.8%
  • Sack Rate 9.4% 11.2%
  • Int Rate 2.1% 1.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 26.5% 15.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 34.3% 34.7%
  • NYPP 7.8 6.0



Rush


  • Rush Plays 34.8 21.8
  • RB YPR 5.2 2.9
  • Stuff Rate 16.6% 29.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 54.1% 42.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 49.4% 26.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.2 3.1




Game

  • All Snaps 66.0 56.0
  • Early Down Succ 56.2% 41.5%
  • Succ Rate 53.1% 40.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 41.5% 34.6%
  • Yards Per Play 6.4 4.8
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 31.5 27.4
  • Run Ratio 52.6% 38.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control 3.5 -3.5
 
  • Points 25.0 16.8
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