Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – LA CHARGERS (-2.5) over Cleveland
Note: With Browns players DE Clowney and LT Wills now out there is now enough value to make LA Chargers a Strong Opinion at -2.5 at -115 odds or better.
The Chargers haven’t been using Justin Herbert’s ability to attack defenses vertically, as the QB has just a 7.3 yard average depth of target (25th). However, we might see Herbert look downfield more often in this matchup. Austin Ekeler ranks 4th among running backs with 18 receptions but he will be contained by rookie LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who leads all linebackers with four pass breakups. Meanwhile, Browns nickelback Troy Hill conceded just two receptions from 6 targets last week and he will limit Keenan Allen in the slot.
Los Angeles backup RT Storm Norton is surrendering 5.7 pressures per game since taking over for Bryan Bulaga and he has no chance of staying in front of edge defender Jadeveon Clowney (7th in pass rushing efficiency). LT Rashawn Slater ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency and the rookie will battle against edge rusher Myles Garrett, who leads the league with 6 sacks.
Baker Mayfield is averaging 6.8 yppp (16th) even after missing some open throws and being held to 145 passing yards last week. Mayfield will look to right the ship, but the Chargers are conceding just 5.3 yards per target to opposing running backs and will take away the screen game to Kareem Hunt.
Our model favors the Chargers by 4.7 points, with a predicted total of 48.2 points, and the match up favors LAC. The LA Chargers are a Strong Opinion at -2.5 at -115 odds or better.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
31.3
34.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
53.6%
39.8%
-
Sack Rate
9.4%
11.2%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
1.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
26.5%
15.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
34.3%
34.7%
-
NYPP
7.8
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
34.8
21.8
-
RB YPR
5.2
2.9
-
Stuff Rate
16.6%
29.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
54.1%
42.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
49.4%
26.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.2
3.1
Game
-
All Snaps
66.0
56.0
-
Early Down Succ
56.2%
41.5%
-
Succ Rate
53.1%
40.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.5%
34.6%
-
Yards Per Play
6.4
4.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.5
27.4
-
Run Ratio
52.6%
38.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
3.5
-3.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
43.0
33.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.2%
49.6%
-
Sack Rate
4.0%
6.6%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
2.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.6%
14.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
30.8%
27.6%
-
NYPP
6.8
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.0
26.3
-
RB YPR
4.2
4.8
-
Stuff Rate
26.1%
14.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.2%
60.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.7%
35.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
69.0
60.0
-
Early Down Succ
52.7%
58.2%
-
Succ Rate
51.4%
54.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
33.1%
31.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.3%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.1
27.8
-
Run Ratio
37.3%
44.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
3.1
-3.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@KC |
29 – 33 L |
5.3 |
60.0% /
60.5% |
6.7% /
5.3% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
10.7 /
8.9 |
76.0% /
56.5% |
8.0% /
21.7% |
6.1 /
3.2 |
55 /
61 |
72.7% /
57.4% |
67.3% /
59.0% |
48.3% /
36.3% |
8.6 /
6.7 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
45.5% /
37.7% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 2 |
HST |
31 – 21 W |
2.9 |
73.9% /
50.0% |
8.7% /
3.3% |
4.8% /
3.4% |
9.3 /
7.6 |
50.0% /
39.3% |
26.5% /
35.7% |
4.6 /
2.9 |
57 /
58 |
63.8% /
41.9% |
59.6% /
44.8% |
39.6% /
40.8% |
6.5 /
5.3 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
59.6% /
48.3% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 3 |
CHI |
26 – 6 W |
5.8 |
47.2% /
13.8% |
13.9% /
31.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
2.3 |
42.9% /
38.5% |
21.4% /
23.1% |
5.1 /
3.5 |
78 /
42 |
45.6% /
29.6% |
44.9% /
21.4% |
43.8% /
14.0% |
5.9 /
2.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.8% /
31.0% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 4 |
@MIN |
14 – 7 W |
-0.1 |
33.3% /
35.0% |
8.3% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
4.3 /
5.1 |
47.4% /
34.8% |
10.5% /
39.1% |
4.8 /
2.8 |
74 /
63 |
42.6% /
37.2% |
40.5% /
34.9% |
34.2% /
47.4% |
4.6 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.4% /
36.5% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@WAS |
20 – 16 W |
2.0 |
55.1% /
40.9% |
4.1% /
4.5% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
6.1 |
41.4% /
70.4% |
37.9% /
18.5% |
3.1 /
4.7 |
78 /
49 |
43.9% /
63.2% |
50.0% /
57.1% |
24.1% /
23.4% |
5.5 /
5.3 |
1.3% /
2.0% |
37.2% /
55.1% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 2 |
DAL |
17 – 20 L |
-2.9 |
53.5% /
69.0% |
4.7% /
6.9% |
4.9% /
3.7% |
7.9 /
8.2 |
52.6% /
64.5% |
15.8% /
6.5% |
5.0 /
6.4 |
62 /
60 |
56.3% /
69.4% |
53.2% /
66.7% |
40.9% /
40.7% |
7.0 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.6% /
51.7% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 3 |
@KC |
30 – 24 W |
3.9 |
53.8% /
54.3% |
2.6% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
7.2 /
5.7 |
40.9% /
69.0% |
27.3% /
3.4% |
3.5 /
6.0 |
61 /
75 |
52.1% /
60.9% |
49.2% /
60.0% |
32.1% /
29.7% |
5.9 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
2.7% |
36.1% /
38.7% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 4 |
LV |
28 – 14 W |
9.6 |
46.3% /
34.2% |
4.9% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
5.4 /
5.2 |
61.8% /
38.9% |
23.5% /
27.8% |
4.9 /
2.7 |
75 /
56 |
58.6% /
39.5% |
53.3% /
35.7% |
35.1% /
33.6% |
5.2 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.3% /
32.1% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
Cleveland Browns
@ 
Los Angeles Chargers