Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Cleveland (-1) over LAS VEGAS

1-Star Best Bet – *Cleveland Team Total Over 19.5 (-105) at -120 or better

• The Browns are net -0.20 EPA/play this season as they’ve been without both starting tackles and tight end David Njoku. Cleveland starting guard Wyatt Teller went down this week but I’m going to make the argument he’s not worth as much as the All-Pros for the Raiders, who are net -0.21 EPA/play this year.
• Las Vegas edge rusher Maxx Crosby had 94 pressures last season, and he is worth 1.4 points by our metrics. The loss of Crosby is compounded by the fact the Raiders also have been missing other starting edge defender Malcolm Koonce, who ranked 11th in pass rushing efficiency last season. It will be Janarius Robinson replacing Crosby. Robinson has only 4 pressures since being drafted in 2021.
• Raiders’ star WR Davante Adams will not be on the field this week and he is worth 0.9 points according to our numbers. Adams is averaging over a yard per route run more than backup wide receiver DJ Turner. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy could be hesitant to go to 12 personnel to compensate for the loss of Adams because last year’s second round pick TE Michael Mayer is sidelined as well.
• Las Vegas has a yards per attempt against man just 52% of their yards per attempt versus zone coverage (31st) and Gardner Minshew will struggle as Cleveland’s defense has a 39.6% man-coverage rate (4th-highest).
• Raiders starting RT Thayer Munford is out as well and his backup DJ Glaze is surrendering an 11% pressure rate.
• Las Vegas starting safety Marcus Epps tore his ACL last week, which ended his season. Epps is worth 0.3 points over backup S Isaiah Pola-Mao.
• The Raiders defense is already the worst in the NFL with a 20.0% pressure rate and they’ll be even worse without Crosby. Deshaun Watson has been pressured on a league-high 21 dropbacks per game which I expect to dramatically decrease versus this Las Vegas defense without Crosby.
• Our model favors the Browns by 5.0 points with a predicted total of 45.0 points and the Browns apply to a 99-33-2 ATS situation.

Cleveland is a 1-Star Best Bet at -2.5 or less and the Cleveland Team Total Over 19.5 is a 1-Star Best Bet at -120 odds or better.