Cleveland Browns @

Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Sep 12
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 471
Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -6, Total: 54.5

Game Analysis

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KANSAS CITY (-6) vs Cleveland

These teams met in the playoffs last year and the spread was Chiefs -8 with a total of 56.5. The home field shouldn’t be too much different with the extra fans (no longer limited capacity) making up for the non-playoff environment (when home advantage goes up). The scoring conditions will be about a point better than they were on January 17th in Kansas City. The market is currently suggesting the Browns have made up 2 points of ground on the Chiefs and the total should be 2-3 points lower.

Cleveland’s defense added safety John Johnson, edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney, cornerback Troy Hill, and linebacker Anthony Walker. Those four players are worth about 2 points compared to replacement level according to our metrics. CB Greedy Williams conceded less than 1 yard per cover snap as a rookie in 2019 but missed the entirety of last season.

All 11 offensive starters return for the Browns after averaging 26.3 points per game (13th) last year, but it’s easy to forget they had three consecutive rain games in the middle of season with average winds of 23 mph. Our metrics show Cleveland played in conditions more than 2 points worse than average in 2020 and now they get three-time Pro Bowl WR Odell Beckham back healthy. We expect Baker Mayfield and the Browns to rank inside the top 10 of scoring.

Should be same old, same old for Kansas City this season. Our model has the offense rated 2 points better than anyone else after addressing issues along the line. The defense will be propelled by playing with leads generated by the offense and will likely finish around 10th in points allowed again.

Our model favors the Chiefs by 6.7 with a predicted total of 53.3. I think there’s a chance the market and our model might be regressing these offenses down too much and the total should probably be at least 55.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Browns
  • Chiefs


  • Pass Plays 0.0 0.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • NYPP 0.0 0.0


  • Rush Plays 0.0 0.0
  • RB YPR 0.0 0.0
  • Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 0.0 0.0


  • All Snaps 0.0 0.0
  • Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 0.0 0.0
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 0.0 0.0
  • Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control 0.0 0.0
  • Points 0.0 0.0
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