Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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KANSAS CITY (-9.5) vs Cleveland

Patrick Mahomes has been under pressure on 34% of his dropbacks this season (17th) compared to 28% in 2019 (2nd). RG Andrew Wylie allowed more pressures per game than anyone on Kansas City’s offensive line and he could have some trouble staying in front of interior defender Sheldon Richardson. Despite that, I expect Mahomes to have more time than usual in the pocket on Sunday. RT Mike Remmers only played 64% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps this season and the rest of those snaps were taken by a revolving door of backups. Remmers ranked 11th in pass blocking efficiency and the Chiefs conceded only four sacks in the 11 games he played more than half the snaps compared to six sacks during the other five games. Browns’ edge defender Olivier Vernon was averaging 3.6 pressures per game before tearing his Achilles tendon in week 17 and is worth 0.7 points. All-Pro DE Myles Garrett did not manage a sack last week facing double teams without the threat of Vernon on the other side and he’ll likely get the same treatment from Kansas City’s offensive line. Cornerbacks Kevin Johnson and Denzel Ward will be back on the field for this game and the pair has combined to concede 1.01 yards per cover snap, compared to Cleveland’s other cornerbacks allowing 1.33 yards per cover snap. The Browns are surrendering 10.1 yards per target to opposing tight ends and I expect All-Pro TE Travis Kelce to be featured even more than normal this week. KC RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been sidelined with a high-ankle sprain but his status will not make much of a difference to Kansas City’s offense. Edwards-Helaire is averaging 0.22 avoided tackles per touch compared to Le’Veon Bell’s 0.18 missed tackles per touch.

Cleveland’s offensive line should be back at full strength, after playing musical chairs last week, if RT Jack Conklin (day-to-day) is able to soldier through a hamstring/knee injury. LG Joel Bitonio ranked 7th in pass blocking efficiency and he should return after missing the game against the Steelers due to covid. The Browns’ interior offensive line conceded just 2 pressures a game with Bitonio, center JC Tretter, and right guard Wyatt Teller in the starting lineup this season and I’m expecting Chiefs’ DT Chris Jones (3rd in pass rushing efficiency) to be frustrated in this matchup. The Chiefs have surrendered the most receiving yards to opposing running backs for two seasons in a row and Baker Mayfield will likely be looking often for Kareem Hunt out of the backfield.

Our model makes Kansas City a 10.8-point favorite with a predicted total of 55.1 points. The matchup favors Cleveland a bit and I think 10 is fair line.

Team Stats
Game Log

Browns
Chiefs

CLE

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.0 41.1
Succ Pass Plays 48.9% 47.2%
Sack Rate 4.8% 6.2%
Int Rate 1.6% 2.1%
Deep Pass Rate 17.9% 18.9%
Big Pass Yards 33.6% 36.2%
NYPP 6.8 6.4

Rush

Rush Plays 31.0 25.4
RB YPR 4.7 3.9
Stuff Rate 21.9% 17.7%
Succ Rush Plays 48.3% 55.0%
Big Rush Yards 52.6% 30.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.7 4.2

Game

All Snaps 64.0 66.6
Early Down Succ 51.3% 51.9%
Succ Rate 48.5% 50.8%
Big Yards Rate 43.4% 35.6%
Yards Per Play 5.8 5.6
Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.7 26.9
Run Ratio 48.8% 39.2%
Starting Field Pos 28.9 29.9
Game Control 2.0 -2.0

Points 27.3 28.1

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@BAL	6 – 38 L	-16.2	36.6% / 57.1%	4.9% / 7.1%	2.6% / 0.0%	4.1 / 9.6	48.1% / 40.0%	18.5% / 26.7%	5.1 / 3.6	68 / 58	48.1% / 47.8%	41.2% / 48.3%	49.3% / 50.4%	4.5 / 6.5	2.9% / 1.7%	39.7% / 51.7%	21.3 / 43.8
2	CIN	35 – 30 W	7.1	47.8% / 48.4%	0.0% / 4.7%	4.3% / 0.0%	9.5 / 4.5	60.0% / 62.5%	11.4% / 25.0%	6.1 / 2.8	58 / 88	56.5% / 51.6%	55.2% / 52.3%	54.6% / 6.5%	7.5 / 4.0	0.0% / 1.1%	60.3% / 27.3%	38.3 / 25.3
3	WAS	34 – 20 W	2.4	56.0% / 40.0%	8.0% / 7.5%	0.0% / 8.1%	5.7 / 5.2	43.2% / 50.0%	27.0% / 13.6%	4.3 / 4.7	62 / 62	51.1% / 42.0%	48.4% / 43.5%	27.7% / 37.2%	4.8 / 5.0	0.0% / 3.2%	59.7% / 35.5%	40.0 / 26.8
4	@DAL	49 – 38 W	12.0	48.5% / 60.7%	6.1% / 4.9%	0.0% / 1.7%	6.1 / 7.9	72.5% / 55.6%	10.0% / 16.7%	7.7 / 4.7	73 / 79	67.8% / 60.6%	61.6% / 59.5%	46.9% / 26.3%	7.0 / 7.2	0.0% / 2.5%	54.8% / 22.8%	31.8 / 22.8
5	IND	32 – 23 W	5.2	48.7% / 47.1%	2.6% / 2.9%	5.3% / 6.1%	6.7 / 7.1	42.4% / 50.0%	21.2% / 11.1%	3.8 / 3.8	72 / 52	40.7% / 51.3%	45.8% / 48.1%	36.9% / 26.0%	5.3 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	45.8% / 34.6%	28.6 / 25.0
6	@PIT	7 – 38 L	-17.7	37.5% / 36.0%	12.5% / 8.0%	7.1% / 0.0%	4.5 / 5.9	36.4% / 54.1%	31.8% / 10.8%	3.4 / 3.5	54 / 62	48.7% / 51.2%	37.0% / 46.8%	40.5% / 55.2%	4.1 / 4.5	0.0% / 0.0%	40.7% / 59.7%	25.6 / 37.8
7	@CIN	37 – 34 W	-2.4	72.4% / 63.5%	0.0% / 7.7%	3.4% / 2.1%	10.9 / 7.4	36.4% / 57.1%	22.7% / 14.3%	3.7 / 3.9	51 / 73	57.1% / 60.3%	56.9% / 61.6%	57.3% / 32.5%	7.8 / 6.4	0.0% / 1.4%	43.1% / 28.8%	26.9 / 31.7
8	LV	6 – 16 L	-2.0	36.0% / 42.3%	0.0% / 7.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.9 / 3.9	54.5% / 68.9%	27.3% / 11.1%	4.6 / 4.6	47 / 71	45.7% / 60.4%	44.7% / 59.2%	34.5% / 22.7%	4.7 / 4.4	2.1% / 0.0%	46.8% / 63.4%	26.5 / 27.1
10	HOU	10 – 7 W	3.8	42.9% / 43.8%	4.8% / 6.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.0 / 4.8	48.8% / 45.5%	17.1% / 27.3%	5.6 / 4.1	62 / 54	48.9% / 43.6%	46.8% / 44.4%	44.7% / 26.7%	5.7 / 4.5	0.0% / 0.0%	66.1% / 40.7%	16.8 / 28.4
11	PHI	22 – 17 W	4.5	40.0% / 40.0%	12.0% / 12.5%	0.0% / 5.7%	7.5 / 5.2	25.0% / 60.0%	37.5% / 28.0%	3.4 / 4.2	65 / 65	34.0% / 52.9%	30.8% / 47.7%	55.9% / 36.8%	5.0 / 4.8	1.5% / 1.5%	61.5% / 38.5%	27.1 / 29.4
12	@JAC	27 – 25 W	2.3	54.8% / 48.6%	6.5% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.1 / 6.7	69.7% / 64.0%	12.1% / 4.0%	6.3 / 5.6	64 / 60	69.4% / 60.0%	62.5% / 55.0%	40.5% / 40.5%	7.2 / 6.3	1.6% / 0.0%	51.6% / 41.7%	21.3 / 31.7
13	@TEN	41 – 35 W	17.0	67.6% / 50.0%	0.0% / 6.3%	0.0% / 2.2%	10.0 / 7.7	38.9% / 55.6%	30.6% / 27.8%	3.3 / 3.4	70 / 66	50.0% / 55.8%	52.9% / 51.5%	43.7% / 31.8%	6.5 / 6.5	1.4% / 3.0%	51.4% / 27.3%	35.6 / 30.5
14	BAL	42 – 47 L	-3.9	52.1% / 44.0%	0.0% / 16.0%	2.1% / 0.0%	7.4 / 6.2	57.1% / 59.4%	7.1% / 15.6%	4.9 / 7.2	76 / 57	54.8% / 52.3%	53.9% / 52.6%	41.4% / 62.6%	6.5 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	36.8% / 56.1%	25.6 / 33.2
16	@NYJ	16 – 23 L	-6.9	40.4% / 40.0%	7.0% / 5.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.5 / 5.8	50.0% / 50.0%	33.3% / 11.8%	2.5 / 3.9	75 / 69	45.6% / 49.0%	42.7% / 44.9%	30.1% / 36.9%	4.0 / 4.8	2.7% / 0.0%	24.0% / 49.3%	24.8 / 34.7
17	PIT	24 – 22 W	6.7	48.4% / 35.6%	12.9% / 2.2%	0.0% / 2.3%	5.4 / 6.9	51.6% / 45.0%	12.9% / 20.0%	6.2 / 4.3	62 / 65	53.2% / 32.6%	50.0% / 38.5%	42.7% / 49.7%	5.8 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 30.8%	31.5 / 23.9
18	@PIT	48 – 37 W	19.8	52.9% / 58.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 5.9%	7.7 / 7.4	38.7% / 62.5%	29.0% / 18.8%	4.1 / 3.3	65 / 84	49.0% / 59.1%	46.2% / 59.5%	47.7% / 27.5%	6.0 / 6.6	0.0% / 1.2%	47.7% / 19.0%	40.4 / 26.4

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	HOU	34 – 20 W	8.0	66.7% / 55.6%	3.0% / 11.1%	0.0% / 3.1%	6.2 / 6.7	47.1% / 59.1%	20.6% / 9.1%	4.9 / 5.4	67 / 58	56.6% / 59.6%	56.7% / 56.9%	19.0% / 33.3%	5.5 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	50.7% / 37.9%	37.2 / 22.3
2	@LAC	23 – 20 W	-5.4	41.7% / 51.4%	2.1% / 5.7%	0.0% / 3.0%	6.0 / 8.5	54.5% / 63.6%	9.1% / 13.6%	5.7 / 4.2	70 / 79	44.4% / 61.9%	45.7% / 58.2%	41.8% / 32.6%	5.9 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	31.4% / 55.7%	22.3 / 21.7
3	@BAL	34 – 20 W	8.9	69.0% / 34.4%	0.0% / 12.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.2 / 2.2	48.4% / 66.7%	25.8% / 0.0%	4.3 / 7.5	73 / 53	58.6% / 52.4%	60.3% / 47.2%	41.6% / 41.2%	7.1 / 4.3	1.4% / 1.9%	42.5% / 39.6%	27.5 / 29.4
4	NE	26 – 10 W	5.5	53.3% / 38.5%	3.3% / 5.1%	0.0% / 8.1%	7.6 / 4.4	36.0% / 48.6%	12.0% / 8.6%	3.8 / 5.3	55 / 74	50.0% / 42.9%	45.5% / 43.2%	47.7% / 37.5%	5.9 / 4.8	1.8% / 1.4%	45.5% / 47.3%	26.4 / 23.9
5	LV	32 – 40 L	-0.7	39.1% / 50.0%	6.5% / 3.1%	2.3% / 3.2%	7.2 / 10.8	55.0% / 62.9%	25.0% / 11.4%	4.0 / 4.1	66 / 67	44.0% / 59.2%	43.9% / 56.7%	50.4% / 62.9%	6.3 / 7.3	0.0% / 0.0%	30.3% / 52.2%	25.8 / 29.8
6	@BUF	26 – 17 W	3.6	59.3% / 44.4%	3.7% / 0.0%	0.0% / 3.7%	8.2 / 4.5	67.4% / 56.5%	17.4% / 17.4%	5.3 / 3.7	73 / 50	65.5% / 51.2%	64.4% / 50.0%	44.8% / 21.8%	6.4 / 4.1	1.4% / 0.0%	63.0% / 46.0%	21.8 / 27.4
7	@DEN	43 – 16 W	13.9	51.7% / 37.2%	13.8% / 7.0%	0.0% / 5.0%	6.4 / 5.4	36.4% / 66.7%	18.2% / 15.2%	4.6 / 5.4	51 / 76	56.1% / 55.0%	45.1% / 50.0%	50.0% / 38.0%	5.6 / 5.4	2.0% / 2.6%	43.1% / 43.4%	43.1 / 25.1
8	NYJ	35 – 9 W	13.1	63.8% / 35.5%	0.0% / 3.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.5 / 4.1	40.0% / 52.0%	30.0% / 12.0%	2.5 / 3.7	67 / 56	58.8% / 48.8%	56.7% / 42.9%	38.7% / 12.2%	7.4 / 3.9	0.0% / 1.8%	29.9% / 44.6%	28.8 / 25.5
9	CAR	33 – 31 W	-1.0	54.3% / 48.1%	2.2% / 3.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.0 / 6.4	50.0% / 54.2%	33.3% / 16.7%	2.5 / 4.3	58 / 76	52.2% / 50.0%	53.4% / 50.0%	52.9% / 37.5%	6.8 / 5.7	1.7% / 0.0%	20.7% / 31.6%	36.2 / 24.9
11	@LV	35 – 31 W	-1.6	67.4% / 67.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	2.2% / 3.2%	7.7 / 8.9	63.0% / 42.3%	14.8% / 15.4%	4.0 / 3.4	73 / 57	68.3% / 55.3%	65.8% / 56.1%	19.3% / 36.3%	6.3 / 6.4	0.0% / 0.0%	37.0% / 45.6%	22.4 / 25.8
12	@TB	27 – 24 W	11.5	53.8% / 54.8%	3.8% / 2.4%	0.0% / 4.9%	8.8 / 8.1	55.0% / 46.2%	20.0% / 0.0%	4.4 / 5.8	72 / 55	55.9% / 56.8%	54.2% / 52.7%	50.5% / 56.1%	7.5 / 7.6	1.4% / 0.0%	27.8% / 23.6%	22.7 / 24.3
13	DEN	22 – 16 W	0.0	53.7% / 42.9%	2.4% / 0.0%	0.0% / 7.1%	7.6 / 5.4	59.1% / 45.5%	13.6% / 21.2%	6.1 / 5.4	63 / 61	61.5% / 42.6%	55.6% / 44.3%	46.1% / 41.2%	7.1 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	34.9% / 54.1%	27.0 / 22.2
14	@MIA	33 – 27 W	6.5	56.8% / 47.2%	8.1% / 7.5%	8.8% / 2.0%	9.6 / 5.4	41.7% / 50.0%	41.7% / 16.7%	3.9 / 3.3	61 / 77	52.1% / 49.2%	50.8% / 48.1%	65.4% / 20.2%	7.3 / 4.8	1.6% / 0.0%	39.3% / 31.2%	27.4 / 28.1
15	@NO	32 – 29 W	6.3	41.2% / 40.0%	7.8% / 2.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	4.5 / 6.4	63.4% / 47.1%	7.3% / 11.8%	4.4 / 3.5	92 / 52	52.8% / 50.0%	51.1% / 42.3%	31.6% / 53.7%	4.5 / 5.5	1.1% / 0.0%	44.6% / 32.7%	30.5 / 25.9
16	ATL	17 – 14 W	0.1	46.7% / 56.4%	0.0% / 10.3%	4.4% / 0.0%	6.2 / 7.1	57.1% / 65.2%	9.5% / 13.0%	5.6 / 3.9	66 / 62	54.0% / 61.2%	50.0% / 59.7%	47.3% / 58.9%	6.0 / 5.9	0.0% / 1.6%	31.8% / 37.1%	26.0 / 20.4
17	LAC	21 – 38 L	-5.2	51.5% / 61.8%	3.0% / 8.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 8.3	47.1% / 51.4%	29.4% / 8.6%	3.0 / 3.9	50 / 69	47.5% / 61.0%	50.0% / 56.5%	29.1% / 46.6%	5.4 / 6.0	2.0% / 0.0%	34.0% / 50.7%	24.0 / 35.1

Cleveland Browns @

Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Jan 17

12:05 PM Pacific

Game Analysis