Game Analysis
KANSAS CITY (-9.5) vs Cleveland
Patrick Mahomes has been under pressure on 34% of his dropbacks this season (17th) compared to 28% in 2019 (2nd). RG Andrew Wylie allowed more pressures per game than anyone on Kansas City’s offensive line and he could have some trouble staying in front of interior defender Sheldon Richardson. Despite that, I expect Mahomes to have more time than usual in the pocket on Sunday. RT Mike Remmers only played 64% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps this season and the rest of those snaps were taken by a revolving door of backups. Remmers ranked 11th in pass blocking efficiency and the Chiefs conceded only four sacks in the 11 games he played more than half the snaps compared to six sacks during the other five games. Browns’ edge defender Olivier Vernon was averaging 3.6 pressures per game before tearing his Achilles tendon in week 17 and is worth 0.7 points. All-Pro DE Myles Garrett did not manage a sack last week facing double teams without the threat of Vernon on the other side and he’ll likely get the same treatment from Kansas City’s offensive line. Cornerbacks Kevin Johnson and Denzel Ward will be back on the field for this game and the pair has combined to concede 1.01 yards per cover snap, compared to Cleveland’s other cornerbacks allowing 1.33 yards per cover snap. The Browns are surrendering 10.1 yards per target to opposing tight ends and I expect All-Pro TE Travis Kelce to be featured even more than normal this week. KC RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been sidelined with a high-ankle sprain but his status will not make much of a difference to Kansas City’s offense. Edwards-Helaire is averaging 0.22 avoided tackles per touch compared to Le’Veon Bell’s 0.18 missed tackles per touch.
Cleveland’s offensive line should be back at full strength, after playing musical chairs last week, if RT Jack Conklin (day-to-day) is able to soldier through a hamstring/knee injury. LG Joel Bitonio ranked 7th in pass blocking efficiency and he should return after missing the game against the Steelers due to covid. The Browns’ interior offensive line conceded just 2 pressures a game with Bitonio, center JC Tretter, and right guard Wyatt Teller in the starting lineup this season and I’m expecting Chiefs’ DT Chris Jones (3rd in pass rushing efficiency) to be frustrated in this matchup. The Chiefs have surrendered the most receiving yards to opposing running backs for two seasons in a row and Baker Mayfield will likely be looking often for Kareem Hunt out of the backfield.
Our model makes Kansas City a 10.8-point favorite with a predicted total of 55.1 points. The matchup favors Cleveland a bit and I think 10 is fair line.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.0
41.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.9%
47.2%
-
Sack Rate
4.8%
6.2%
-
Int Rate
1.6%
2.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.9%
18.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.6%
36.2%
-
NYPP
6.8
6.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.0
25.4
-
RB YPR
4.7
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
21.9%
17.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.3%
55.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
52.6%
30.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
64.0
66.6
-
Early Down Succ
51.3%
51.9%
-
Succ Rate
48.5%
50.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.4%
35.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.7
26.9
-
Run Ratio
48.8%
39.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.9
29.9
-
Game Control
2.0
-2.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.8
36.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
54.4%
47.9%
-
Sack Rate
3.7%
5.2%
-
Int Rate
1.1%
2.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.9%
20.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.1%
39.2%
-
NYPP
7.4
6.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.3
27.1
-
RB YPR
4.1
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
20.5%
11.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.3%
54.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.9%
33.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
66.1
63.9
-
Early Down Succ
54.9%
53.6%
-
Succ Rate
53.1%
50.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.3%
39.4%
-
Yards Per Play
6.3
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.8
28.1
-
Run Ratio
37.9%
42.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.1
25.7
-
Game Control
4.0
-4.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@BAL |
6 – 38 L |
-16.2 |
36.6% /
57.1% |
4.9% /
7.1% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
9.6 |
48.1% /
40.0% |
18.5% /
26.7% |
5.1 /
3.6 |
68 /
58 |
48.1% /
47.8% |
41.2% /
48.3% |
49.3% /
50.4% |
4.5 /
6.5 |
2.9% /
1.7% |
39.7% /
51.7% |
21.3 /
43.8 |
| 2 |
CIN |
35 – 30 W |
7.1 |
47.8% /
48.4% |
0.0% /
4.7% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
9.5 /
4.5 |
60.0% /
62.5% |
11.4% /
25.0% |
6.1 /
2.8 |
58 /
88 |
56.5% /
51.6% |
55.2% /
52.3% |
54.6% /
6.5% |
7.5 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
1.1% |
60.3% /
27.3% |
38.3 /
25.3 |
| 3 |
WAS |
34 – 20 W |
2.4 |
56.0% /
40.0% |
8.0% /
7.5% |
0.0% /
8.1% |
5.7 /
5.2 |
43.2% /
50.0% |
27.0% /
13.6% |
4.3 /
4.7 |
62 /
62 |
51.1% /
42.0% |
48.4% /
43.5% |
27.7% /
37.2% |
4.8 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
59.7% /
35.5% |
40.0 /
26.8 |
| 4 |
@DAL |
49 – 38 W |
12.0 |
48.5% /
60.7% |
6.1% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
1.7% |
6.1 /
7.9 |
72.5% /
55.6% |
10.0% /
16.7% |
7.7 /
4.7 |
73 /
79 |
67.8% /
60.6% |
61.6% /
59.5% |
46.9% /
26.3% |
7.0 /
7.2 |
0.0% /
2.5% |
54.8% /
22.8% |
31.8 /
22.8 |
| 5 |
IND |
32 – 23 W |
5.2 |
48.7% /
47.1% |
2.6% /
2.9% |
5.3% /
6.1% |
6.7 /
7.1 |
42.4% /
50.0% |
21.2% /
11.1% |
3.8 /
3.8 |
72 /
52 |
40.7% /
51.3% |
45.8% /
48.1% |
36.9% /
26.0% |
5.3 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.8% /
34.6% |
28.6 /
25.0 |
| 6 |
@PIT |
7 – 38 L |
-17.7 |
37.5% /
36.0% |
12.5% /
8.0% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
4.5 /
5.9 |
36.4% /
54.1% |
31.8% /
10.8% |
3.4 /
3.5 |
54 /
62 |
48.7% /
51.2% |
37.0% /
46.8% |
40.5% /
55.2% |
4.1 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.7% /
59.7% |
25.6 /
37.8 |
| 7 |
@CIN |
37 – 34 W |
-2.4 |
72.4% /
63.5% |
0.0% /
7.7% |
3.4% /
2.1% |
10.9 /
7.4 |
36.4% /
57.1% |
22.7% /
14.3% |
3.7 /
3.9 |
51 /
73 |
57.1% /
60.3% |
56.9% /
61.6% |
57.3% /
32.5% |
7.8 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
43.1% /
28.8% |
26.9 /
31.7 |
| 8 |
LV |
6 – 16 L |
-2.0 |
36.0% /
42.3% |
0.0% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
3.9 |
54.5% /
68.9% |
27.3% /
11.1% |
4.6 /
4.6 |
47 /
71 |
45.7% /
60.4% |
44.7% /
59.2% |
34.5% /
22.7% |
4.7 /
4.4 |
2.1% /
0.0% |
46.8% /
63.4% |
26.5 /
27.1 |
| 10 |
HOU |
10 – 7 W |
3.8 |
42.9% /
43.8% |
4.8% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
4.8 |
48.8% /
45.5% |
17.1% /
27.3% |
5.6 /
4.1 |
62 /
54 |
48.9% /
43.6% |
46.8% /
44.4% |
44.7% /
26.7% |
5.7 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
66.1% /
40.7% |
16.8 /
28.4 |
| 11 |
PHI |
22 – 17 W |
4.5 |
40.0% /
40.0% |
12.0% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
5.7% |
7.5 /
5.2 |
25.0% /
60.0% |
37.5% /
28.0% |
3.4 /
4.2 |
65 /
65 |
34.0% /
52.9% |
30.8% /
47.7% |
55.9% /
36.8% |
5.0 /
4.8 |
1.5% /
1.5% |
61.5% /
38.5% |
27.1 /
29.4 |
| 12 |
@JAC |
27 – 25 W |
2.3 |
54.8% /
48.6% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.1 /
6.7 |
69.7% /
64.0% |
12.1% /
4.0% |
6.3 /
5.6 |
64 /
60 |
69.4% /
60.0% |
62.5% /
55.0% |
40.5% /
40.5% |
7.2 /
6.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
51.6% /
41.7% |
21.3 /
31.7 |
| 13 |
@TEN |
41 – 35 W |
17.0 |
67.6% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
10.0 /
7.7 |
38.9% /
55.6% |
30.6% /
27.8% |
3.3 /
3.4 |
70 /
66 |
50.0% /
55.8% |
52.9% /
51.5% |
43.7% /
31.8% |
6.5 /
6.5 |
1.4% /
3.0% |
51.4% /
27.3% |
35.6 /
30.5 |
| 14 |
BAL |
42 – 47 L |
-3.9 |
52.1% /
44.0% |
0.0% /
16.0% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
6.2 |
57.1% /
59.4% |
7.1% /
15.6% |
4.9 /
7.2 |
76 /
57 |
54.8% /
52.3% |
53.9% /
52.6% |
41.4% /
62.6% |
6.5 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.8% /
56.1% |
25.6 /
33.2 |
| 16 |
@NYJ |
16 – 23 L |
-6.9 |
40.4% /
40.0% |
7.0% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.5 /
5.8 |
50.0% /
50.0% |
33.3% /
11.8% |
2.5 /
3.9 |
75 /
69 |
45.6% /
49.0% |
42.7% /
44.9% |
30.1% /
36.9% |
4.0 /
4.8 |
2.7% /
0.0% |
24.0% /
49.3% |
24.8 /
34.7 |
| 17 |
PIT |
24 – 22 W |
6.7 |
48.4% /
35.6% |
12.9% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
5.4 /
6.9 |
51.6% /
45.0% |
12.9% /
20.0% |
6.2 /
4.3 |
62 /
65 |
53.2% /
32.6% |
50.0% /
38.5% |
42.7% /
49.7% |
5.8 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
30.8% |
31.5 /
23.9 |
| 18 |
@PIT |
48 – 37 W |
19.8 |
52.9% /
58.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
7.7 /
7.4 |
38.7% /
62.5% |
29.0% /
18.8% |
4.1 /
3.3 |
65 /
84 |
49.0% /
59.1% |
46.2% /
59.5% |
47.7% /
27.5% |
6.0 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
1.2% |
47.7% /
19.0% |
40.4 /
26.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
HOU |
34 – 20 W |
8.0 |
66.7% /
55.6% |
3.0% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
6.2 /
6.7 |
47.1% /
59.1% |
20.6% /
9.1% |
4.9 /
5.4 |
67 /
58 |
56.6% /
59.6% |
56.7% /
56.9% |
19.0% /
33.3% |
5.5 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.7% /
37.9% |
37.2 /
22.3 |
| 2 |
@LAC |
23 – 20 W |
-5.4 |
41.7% /
51.4% |
2.1% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
6.0 /
8.5 |
54.5% /
63.6% |
9.1% /
13.6% |
5.7 /
4.2 |
70 /
79 |
44.4% /
61.9% |
45.7% /
58.2% |
41.8% /
32.6% |
5.9 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.4% /
55.7% |
22.3 /
21.7 |
| 3 |
@BAL |
34 – 20 W |
8.9 |
69.0% /
34.4% |
0.0% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.2 /
2.2 |
48.4% /
66.7% |
25.8% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
7.5 |
73 /
53 |
58.6% /
52.4% |
60.3% /
47.2% |
41.6% /
41.2% |
7.1 /
4.3 |
1.4% /
1.9% |
42.5% /
39.6% |
27.5 /
29.4 |
| 4 |
NE |
26 – 10 W |
5.5 |
53.3% /
38.5% |
3.3% /
5.1% |
0.0% /
8.1% |
7.6 /
4.4 |
36.0% /
48.6% |
12.0% /
8.6% |
3.8 /
5.3 |
55 /
74 |
50.0% /
42.9% |
45.5% /
43.2% |
47.7% /
37.5% |
5.9 /
4.8 |
1.8% /
1.4% |
45.5% /
47.3% |
26.4 /
23.9 |
| 5 |
LV |
32 – 40 L |
-0.7 |
39.1% /
50.0% |
6.5% /
3.1% |
2.3% /
3.2% |
7.2 /
10.8 |
55.0% /
62.9% |
25.0% /
11.4% |
4.0 /
4.1 |
66 /
67 |
44.0% /
59.2% |
43.9% /
56.7% |
50.4% /
62.9% |
6.3 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.3% /
52.2% |
25.8 /
29.8 |
| 6 |
@BUF |
26 – 17 W |
3.6 |
59.3% /
44.4% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
8.2 /
4.5 |
67.4% /
56.5% |
17.4% /
17.4% |
5.3 /
3.7 |
73 /
50 |
65.5% /
51.2% |
64.4% /
50.0% |
44.8% /
21.8% |
6.4 /
4.1 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
63.0% /
46.0% |
21.8 /
27.4 |
| 7 |
@DEN |
43 – 16 W |
13.9 |
51.7% /
37.2% |
13.8% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
6.4 /
5.4 |
36.4% /
66.7% |
18.2% /
15.2% |
4.6 /
5.4 |
51 /
76 |
56.1% /
55.0% |
45.1% /
50.0% |
50.0% /
38.0% |
5.6 /
5.4 |
2.0% /
2.6% |
43.1% /
43.4% |
43.1 /
25.1 |
| 8 |
NYJ |
35 – 9 W |
13.1 |
63.8% /
35.5% |
0.0% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.5 /
4.1 |
40.0% /
52.0% |
30.0% /
12.0% |
2.5 /
3.7 |
67 /
56 |
58.8% /
48.8% |
56.7% /
42.9% |
38.7% /
12.2% |
7.4 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
29.9% /
44.6% |
28.8 /
25.5 |
| 9 |
CAR |
33 – 31 W |
-1.0 |
54.3% /
48.1% |
2.2% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
6.4 |
50.0% /
54.2% |
33.3% /
16.7% |
2.5 /
4.3 |
58 /
76 |
52.2% /
50.0% |
53.4% /
50.0% |
52.9% /
37.5% |
6.8 /
5.7 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
20.7% /
31.6% |
36.2 /
24.9 |
| 11 |
@LV |
35 – 31 W |
-1.6 |
67.4% /
67.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
2.2% /
3.2% |
7.7 /
8.9 |
63.0% /
42.3% |
14.8% /
15.4% |
4.0 /
3.4 |
73 /
57 |
68.3% /
55.3% |
65.8% /
56.1% |
19.3% /
36.3% |
6.3 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.0% /
45.6% |
22.4 /
25.8 |
| 12 |
@TB |
27 – 24 W |
11.5 |
53.8% /
54.8% |
3.8% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
4.9% |
8.8 /
8.1 |
55.0% /
46.2% |
20.0% /
0.0% |
4.4 /
5.8 |
72 /
55 |
55.9% /
56.8% |
54.2% /
52.7% |
50.5% /
56.1% |
7.5 /
7.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
27.8% /
23.6% |
22.7 /
24.3 |
| 13 |
DEN |
22 – 16 W |
0.0 |
53.7% /
42.9% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
7.1% |
7.6 /
5.4 |
59.1% /
45.5% |
13.6% /
21.2% |
6.1 /
5.4 |
63 /
61 |
61.5% /
42.6% |
55.6% /
44.3% |
46.1% /
41.2% |
7.1 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.9% /
54.1% |
27.0 /
22.2 |
| 14 |
@MIA |
33 – 27 W |
6.5 |
56.8% /
47.2% |
8.1% /
7.5% |
8.8% /
2.0% |
9.6 /
5.4 |
41.7% /
50.0% |
41.7% /
16.7% |
3.9 /
3.3 |
61 /
77 |
52.1% /
49.2% |
50.8% /
48.1% |
65.4% /
20.2% |
7.3 /
4.8 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
39.3% /
31.2% |
27.4 /
28.1 |
| 15 |
@NO |
32 – 29 W |
6.3 |
41.2% /
40.0% |
7.8% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
4.5 /
6.4 |
63.4% /
47.1% |
7.3% /
11.8% |
4.4 /
3.5 |
92 /
52 |
52.8% /
50.0% |
51.1% /
42.3% |
31.6% /
53.7% |
4.5 /
5.5 |
1.1% /
0.0% |
44.6% /
32.7% |
30.5 /
25.9 |
| 16 |
ATL |
17 – 14 W |
0.1 |
46.7% /
56.4% |
0.0% /
10.3% |
4.4% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
7.1 |
57.1% /
65.2% |
9.5% /
13.0% |
5.6 /
3.9 |
66 /
62 |
54.0% /
61.2% |
50.0% /
59.7% |
47.3% /
58.9% |
6.0 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
31.8% /
37.1% |
26.0 /
20.4 |
| 17 |
LAC |
21 – 38 L |
-5.2 |
51.5% /
61.8% |
3.0% /
8.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
8.3 |
47.1% /
51.4% |
29.4% /
8.6% |
3.0 /
3.9 |
50 /
69 |
47.5% /
61.0% |
50.0% /
56.5% |
29.1% /
46.6% |
5.4 /
6.0 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
34.0% /
50.7% |
24.0 /
35.1 |
Cleveland Browns
@ 
Kansas City Chiefs