• The Browns led the league in neutral pass rate last week which is exactly the formula for beating Jacksonville’s defense down two starters in the secondary.
• Jaguars starting nickelback Darnell Savage allowed 0.22 yards per cover snap in the slot last week before being sidelined and his backup Jarrian Jones surrendered 1.67 yards per cover snap in the slot.
• Jacksonville CB Tyson Campbell will be out with a hamstring injury suffered in loss to Dolphins. Backup cornerback Montaric Brown surrendered 0.7 more yards per cover snap last season than Tyson Campbell, who is worth 0.7 points according to our metrics.
• Cleveland Amari Cooper had only 16 yards last week from 170 air yards. Cooper averaged 2.31 yards per route run last season (13th) and he will have a favorable matchup to rebound on Sunday across from Brown.
• The Browns will be without TE David Njoku and tackle Jack Conklin again but Deshaun Watson will not have a 43% pressure rate like he did in week 1. The problem against the Cowboys was the interior trio uncharacteristically combining to surrender 12 pressures. Joel Bitonio, Wyatt Teller, and Wyatt Teller have made seven All-Pro teams between them and Cleveland’s interior offensive line allowed only 5.1 pressures per game in 2023.
• Trevor Lawrence’s top two wide receivers will be blanketed on Sunday. Cleveland Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward will contain WR Brian Thomas, whose 0.30 EPA per route run was the highest of any rookie in week 1 since 2013.
• Jacksonville WR Christian Kirk 2.18 yards per route run in the slot last season (6th) but he will be shut down by nickelback Greg Newsome, who allowed only 0.15 yards per cover snap in the slot last week (6th).
• Our model favors the Jaguars by 1.6 points, with a predicted total of 45.5 points, and the Browns apply to a 50-19-1 ATS week 2 blowout bounce-back situation. With value on the Browns and the Over I like the Browns Team Total Over.

The Cleveland Team Total Over (19.5 -115) is a Strong Opinion at 20 or less.