Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Over (40 -115) – Cleveland (-2.5) vs INDIANAPOLIS

· This total opened 39 and we didn’t bet it initially because there was a possibility it could’ve dropped down to 38 if PJ Walker was announced as the starter for the second straight week in place of Deshaun Watson, who is dealing with a rotator cuff bruise.

· On Wednesday, Watson was scheduled to address the media. Usually, the starting quarterback will be the one to have a press conference midweek. The point spread vaulted up from Browns -2 to -3 on the news. It takes a notable amount of money for an NFL spread to move a point onto 3 as it is the most common margin of victory.

· This indicated to me there was a decent shot Watson would suit up and I wanted to lock in the over as it would’ve likely closed in the 42.5 range. However, Watson did not confirm anything with the media and then did not practice. I think Walker will be under center this week.

· To be clear, I like this over up to 41 with Walker starting. I just wanted to explain the reason for the price we took.

· Onto the game. Walker is a downgrade from Watson, but he is not a downgrade on Cleveland’s offense this season. Walker has averaged 5.4 yards per pass play in his career, mostly with Carolina. The Browns are averaging just 4.5 yppp this season.

· Cleveland’s season numbers on offense are being dragged down by one start from Dorian Thompson-Robinson in which he averaged -0.51 EPA/dropback. Furthermore, the Brown versus Bengals in week 1 “was probably the biggest rain game I’ve been a part of in 10 years,” Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor said. Cleveland’s offense does not have worse play calling, worse receivers, or a worse offensive line than the 2020-22 Panthers and I expect Walker to be around his career average as long as he has this starting job.

· Browns All-Pro LG Joel Bitonio will be back on the field this week to shut down DT DeForest Buckner, whose 13 pressures rank 2nd on the Indianapolis defense.

· Colts’ interior defender Grover Stewart has been suspended six games for violating the NFL’s PED policy. Stewart has 12 run stops (8th) and he is worth 0.4 points according to our numbers.

· Gardner Minshew will surprise some this week against Cleveland’s aggressive defense. The Browns have a 36.1% man cover rate (2nd-highest) but Shane Steichen’s offense is averaging 19% more yards per attempt versus man than zone coverage this season (8th-largest gap).

· Cleveland’s defense has a 42.2% pressure rate (2nd), but the Colts rank 6th in pass-blocking efficiency as Steichen does a great job scheming protection.

· Our model favors the Browns by 4.2 points, with a predicted total of 44.8 points (assuming Watson is out). Cleveland applies to a 29-88-3 ATS letdown situation that is based on last week’s upset win over the Niners and I’m using the Colts in my spread pool.

The Over is a 2-Star over 40 (-115 or better) and 1-Star up to 41 points.