Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Over (46) – Cleveland (-7) vs HOUSTON

· Deshaun Watson served his 11-game suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy and will make his first start of the season against his former team on Sunday.

· Watson is averaging a career 0.190 EPA/play and Jacoby Brissett was averaging 0.116 EPA/play this year. Watson will be at least 3 points better than Brissett according to our metrics.

· Cleveland’s offense has a supporting cast of similar caliber or better than Watson’s Houston offenses. Tight end David Njoku has a 60% success rate (5th) while wide receiver Amari Cooper is averaging 0.40 EPA/target (15th).

· The Browns also have a 45.3% rush success rate (5th).

· I expect Cleveland’s offense to come out with fireworks this week in a dome versus a Texans defense surrendering 5.9 yards per play after compensating for strength of schedule (27th). That defense allowed Tua Tagovailoa 278 passing yards in the first half last game before the Dolphins were able to rest him.

· There are two great edge rushers in this game, but both will be contained. Houston edge defender Jerry Hughes has 42 pressures (15th) but he will line up across from RT Jack Conklin, who ranks 9th in pass blocking efficiency. Myles Garrett has 10.0 sacks (5th) but Texans LT Laremy Tunsil ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency.

· Houston TE Jordan Akins had a season-high 5 targets and a touchdown in Kyle Allen’s first start last week. Allen will deliver to Atkins again versus a Browns defense allowing 7.7 yards per target to tight ends (24th).

· Texans’ rookie RB Dameon Pierce should reign on the ground as Cleveland’s rush defense is allowing a league-high 0.115 EPA/rush.

· Houston’s offense has been terrible lately, but teams that have scored 17 points or fewer in 4 or more consecutive games are 55.1% ATS on 662 games going back many years in the NFL and the Texans apply to a 122-56-4 ATS subset of that situation today – so I expect their offense to play better than it has been.

· Our model favors the Browns by 8.8 points, with a predicted total of 50.4 points.

The Over is a 2-Star Best Bet at 46.5 points or less and a 1-Star up to 47 points.