Cleveland Browns @

Cincinnati Bengals

Sun, Oct 25
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 451
Odds: Cincinnati Bengals +3.5, Total: 50.5

Game Analysis

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Note: Line has moved to -3.5 so just a lean on Cleveland now.

Strong Opinion – Cleveland (-3) over CINCINNATI

Baker Mayfield played through a rib injury last Sunday but was unable to finish the game as backup QB Case Keenum took over in the second half. Pittsburgh’s defense pressured Mayfield on over 47% of his dropbacks and he had more sacks (4) than completed passes (3) on those plays. Mayfield will likely be back under center this week and he will need to improve his downfield passing to take advantage of Cincinnati’s defense. The Bengals allowed the Colts offense to create seven plays of 20+ yards last week, but Mayfield’s yards per attempt on 10+ yard passes has dropped from 9.6 in his rookie season to 8.2 last year and now it’s all the way down to 7.3.

Austin Hooper led the team in targets last Sunday and now has a 24% target share over the past three weeks. It looks like Kevin Stafanski is trying to get the TE more involved, which I expect to continue against a Bengals defense that has surrendered more than 400 yards to opposing tight ends.

Joe Burrow threw an accurate pass on 71% of his attempts in the intermediate range against the Colts, the 3rd-best rate of the week. There are signs Cincinnati’s offensive line is improving, as Burrow experienced pressure on only 9 of his 42 dropbacks last week. However, RT Bobby Hart still ranks 54th out of 59 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency and he will be exposed again on Sunday by Browns’ edge defender Myles Garrett, who ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency and had nine pressures the last time these teams met in week 2. Tyler Boyd leads the Bengals in targets and receiving yards but Kevin Johnson has been solid since taking over as the Browns starting nickelback in week 4, allowing only 0.75 yards per slot cover snap, and he should limit Boyd on the inside.

The Browns and Ravens are the only two teams to have more runs than passes this year and Cleveland’s ground game will play a major role on Sunday. Cincinnati’s defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has shown no ability to stop the run as the Bengals rush defense ranks 27th in our metrics after finishing 29th in 2019. Furthermore, the loss of DT DJ Reader, whose 10% run stop rate ranked 11th among interior defenders before picking up a quad injury in week 5, makes the Bengals’ rush defense even worse.
The Browns dominated the game when these teams faced off in week 2 out-gaining Cincinnati by 3.5 yppl (second largest margin we’ve seen all season), but Cleveland ultimately only won by 5 due to a garbage time 75-yard touchdown drive by the Bengals.

Our model makes Cleveland a 3.7-point favorite with a predicted total of 50.1 points. However, Cincinnati applies to a 30-81-3 ATS bad team at home off 2 road losses situation and the Browns match-up extremely well against the Bengals. Cleveland is a Strong Opinion at -3 at -115 odds or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Browns
  • Bengals
CLE
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 29.7 44.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.8% 48.5%
  • Sack Rate 4.3% 6.4%
  • Int Rate 2.3% 2.7%
  • Deep Pass Rate 20.3% 17.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 27.4% 32.2%
  • NYPP 6.4 6.4



Rush


  • Rush Plays 33.0 25.3
  • RB YPR 5.2 3.5
  • Stuff Rate 19.0% 21.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 50.5% 50.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 60.1% 28.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.2 3.7




Game

  • All Snaps 62.7 69.3
  • Early Down Succ 51.9% 47.1%
  • Succ Rate 48.2% 48.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 43.9% 31.4%
  • Yards Per Play 5.6 5.2
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 2.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.8 26.5
  • Run Ratio 53.2% 38.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 33.2 32.0
  • Game Control -2.2 2.2
 
  • Points 25.0 29.3
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