Game Analysis
Lean – Cleveland (+3) over CINCINNATI
Cleveland’s offense has been much improved under new play-caller Freddie Kitchens, as the Browns have averaged 6.9 yards per play the last two games, compared to just 4.9 yards per play before the firing of Hue Jackson and Todd Haley. The running backs coach is getting Duke Johnson more involved with 13 targets in the last two games and Johnson is averaging 3.21 yards per route run, second among all running back in that stretch. Another Browns running back Nick Chubb is getting 19.5 carries per game since Carlos Hyde was traded, after only seeing 2.7 carries per game through the first 6 weeks of the season. Chubb is best among qualifying running backs in yards per rush after contact (5.28) and forced missed tackles per attempt (0.28). The Bengals have struggled to keep their linebackers on the field all season and Cleveland may have the right personnel and play calling to exploit this matchup.
Cincinnati’s offense averaged 6.1 yards per play in the opening 4 weeks of the season, but then Tyler Eifert was injured and they haven’t been the same since gaining just 5.5 yards per play. A.J. Green is questionable to return this week and Andy Dalton has really struggled without his top 2 pass catchers. Green’s status will be worth monitoring on Sunday as he’s worth 0.8 points.
Our model favors the Cincinnati by just 1.7 points so I’ll lean slightly with Cleveland at +3 points or more.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.6
40.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.9%
54.0%
-
Sack Rate
8.8%
5.9%
-
Int Rate
2.9%
3.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
23.4%
17.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.9%
36.5%
-
NYPP
6.2
7.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.1
29.1
-
RB YPR
4.4
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
28.3%
27.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.7%
48.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
55.5%
56.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
66.7
69.9
-
Early Down Succ
44.6%
54.1%
-
Succ Rate
42.7%
52.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
47.4%
42.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.2
28.7
-
Run Ratio
42.5%
42.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.9
28.9
-
Game Control
-3.4
3.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.4
39.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.9%
55.9%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
6.1%
-
Int Rate
3.2%
3.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.1%
18.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
45.5%
36.8%
-
NYPP
6.8
7.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
20.3
31.7
-
RB YPR
4.2
4.7
-
Stuff Rate
22.9%
15.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.4%
49.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
52.0%
40.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.8
Game
-
All Snaps
56.7
70.9
-
Early Down Succ
51.3%
51.7%
-
Succ Rate
49.4%
53.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.7%
40.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
6.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.2%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.2
29.0
-
Run Ratio
36.1%
45.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.6
28.3
-
Game Control
-3.2
3.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
PIT |
21 – 21 T |
-6.0 |
21.7% /
40.0% |
15.2% /
8.9% |
2.6% /
7.3% |
3.3 /
7.0 |
39.5% /
44.4% |
34.2% /
19.4% |
4.7 /
4.4 |
84 /
81 |
30.8% /
42.2% |
29.8% /
42.0% |
64.5% /
48.4% |
3.9 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
3.7% |
45.2% /
44.4% |
34.4 /
23.9 |
| 2 |
@NO |
18 – 21 L |
2.8 |
48.5% /
63.2% |
9.1% /
7.9% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
5.6 |
33.3% /
37.5% |
14.8% /
25.0% |
3.4 /
2.6 |
60 /
62 |
43.5% /
60.4% |
41.7% /
53.2% |
43.4% /
30.8% |
5.5 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
45.0% /
38.7% |
28.4 /
35.0 |
| 3 |
NYJ |
21 – 17 W |
-5.4 |
36.6% /
36.4% |
9.8% /
6.1% |
0.0% /
6.5% |
4.6 /
4.9 |
42.9% /
50.0% |
31.4% /
43.3% |
3.9 /
3.6 |
76 /
63 |
42.6% /
42.6% |
39.5% /
42.9% |
32.3% /
22.4% |
4.3 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
46.1% /
47.6% |
33.3 /
23.2 |
| 4 |
@OAK |
42 – 45 L |
2.1 |
37.2% /
53.3% |
4.7% /
5.0% |
4.9% /
3.5% |
6.5 /
7.1 |
43.8% /
33.3% |
21.9% /
36.7% |
6.5 /
4.7 |
75 /
90 |
42.1% /
52.1% |
40.0% /
46.7% |
57.8% /
44.2% |
6.5 /
6.3 |
2.7% /
0.0% |
42.7% /
33.3% |
26.1 /
34.9 |
| 5 |
BAL |
12 – 9 W |
0.7 |
62.1% /
80.6% |
17.2% /
6.5% |
4.2% /
3.4% |
10.5 /
9.5 |
46.4% /
48.0% |
35.7% /
32.0% |
4.0 /
4.6 |
57 /
56 |
45.5% /
47.8% |
54.4% /
66.1% |
57.7% /
35.1% |
7.3 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
49.1% /
44.6% |
19.7 /
31.4 |
| 6 |
LAC |
14 – 38 L |
-14.7 |
39.2% /
45.5% |
9.8% /
4.5% |
4.3% /
4.8% |
4.2 /
9.2 |
42.9% /
63.2% |
33.3% /
13.2% |
4.9 /
6.5 |
72 /
60 |
41.5% /
68.8% |
40.3% /
56.7% |
50.2% /
69.2% |
4.4 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
29.2% /
63.3% |
34.2 /
30.5 |
| 7 |
@TB |
23 – 26 L |
-6.5 |
38.5% /
51.8% |
12.8% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
4.8 /
6.1 |
39.1% /
42.4% |
30.4% /
30.3% |
5.2 /
3.5 |
62 /
89 |
45.7% /
49.3% |
38.7% /
48.3% |
41.0% /
35.4% |
4.9 /
5.1 |
1.6% /
2.2% |
37.1% /
37.1% |
37.6 /
21.3 |
| 8 |
@PIT |
18 – 33 L |
-5.4 |
36.8% /
51.4% |
5.3% /
2.7% |
2.8% /
2.8% |
4.3 /
6.8 |
38.1% /
59.4% |
38.1% /
12.5% |
3.5 /
5.3 |
59 /
69 |
40.0% /
58.5% |
37.3% /
55.1% |
55.3% /
39.8% |
4.0 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
35.6% /
46.4% |
30.2 /
27.8 |
| 9 |
KC |
21 – 37 L |
-10.7 |
46.7% /
63.6% |
4.4% /
6.1% |
2.3% /
3.2% |
6.4 /
10.9 |
56.0% /
58.3% |
24.0% /
29.2% |
4.1 /
5.8 |
70 /
57 |
51.9% /
61.7% |
50.0% /
61.4% |
26.0% /
62.1% |
5.5 /
8.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.7% /
42.1% |
21.8 /
33.3 |
| 10 |
ATL |
28 – 16 W |
8.8 |
71.4% /
54.7% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
10.3 /
5.9 |
45.2% /
47.4% |
19.4% /
36.8% |
6.9 /
3.7 |
52 /
72 |
62.5% /
57.4% |
55.8% /
52.8% |
45.7% /
36.1% |
8.3 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
2.8% |
59.6% /
26.4% |
23.6 /
27.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@IND |
34 – 23 W |
-3.1 |
60.0% /
56.4% |
6.7% /
3.6% |
3.6% /
1.9% |
7.6 /
5.5 |
65.0% /
54.5% |
20.0% /
22.7% |
5.1 /
3.4 |
50 /
77 |
64.3% /
53.3% |
62.0% /
55.8% |
38.8% /
10.0% |
6.6 /
4.9 |
2.0% /
1.3% |
40.0% /
28.6% |
26.2 /
33.4 |
| 2 |
BAL |
34 – 23 W |
11.8 |
45.2% /
49.1% |
0.0% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
6.3 /
6.3 |
42.9% /
50.0% |
28.6% /
18.2% |
3.9 /
3.0 |
70 /
79 |
45.6% /
50.0% |
44.3% /
49.4% |
43.7% /
35.5% |
5.3 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
40.0% /
27.8% |
36.3 /
22.6 |
| 3 |
@CAR |
21 – 31 L |
-4.5 |
53.2% /
40.0% |
4.3% /
4.0% |
8.9% /
0.0% |
7.0 /
5.9 |
53.8% /
47.6% |
23.1% /
21.4% |
5.1 /
5.5 |
60 /
67 |
56.0% /
46.2% |
53.3% /
44.8% |
58.1% /
54.8% |
6.6 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
21.7% /
62.7% |
23.5 /
30.5 |
| 4 |
@ATL |
37 – 36 W |
0.5 |
52.3% /
61.9% |
6.8% /
7.1% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
7.0 /
9.6 |
56.5% /
45.8% |
8.7% /
12.5% |
4.3 /
3.8 |
67 /
66 |
50.9% /
52.0% |
53.7% /
56.1% |
33.4% /
37.2% |
6.1 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.3% /
36.4% |
33.0 /
32.4 |
| 5 |
MIA |
27 – 17 W |
-4.6 |
68.2% /
77.3% |
9.1% /
13.6% |
5.0% /
10.5% |
10.4 /
7.7 |
29.6% /
45.5% |
25.9% /
13.6% |
3.9 /
5.8 |
49 /
44 |
45.7% /
48.9% |
46.9% /
61.4% |
52.9% /
25.3% |
6.8 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
2.3% |
55.1% /
50.0% |
22.9 /
25.5 |
| 6 |
PIT |
21 – 28 L |
-0.7 |
53.3% /
50.0% |
6.7% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
8.0 |
46.2% /
40.9% |
30.8% /
22.7% |
4.8 /
5.1 |
58 /
68 |
52.2% /
46.2% |
51.7% /
47.1% |
25.1% /
60.2% |
4.7 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
22.4% /
32.4% |
30.7 /
19.8 |
| 7 |
@KC |
10 – 45 L |
-19.4 |
42.9% /
61.0% |
5.7% /
4.9% |
3.0% /
2.6% |
5.0 /
8.6 |
47.4% /
51.7% |
26.3% /
10.3% |
3.4 /
6.8 |
54 /
70 |
47.6% /
54.4% |
44.4% /
57.1% |
42.3% /
52.5% |
4.4 /
7.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.2% /
41.4% |
26.6 /
24.0 |
| 8 |
TB |
37 – 34 W |
10.5 |
48.6% /
41.1% |
5.7% /
10.7% |
0.0% /
8.0% |
7.5 /
8.0 |
42.9% /
51.9% |
28.6% /
11.1% |
5.0 /
4.7 |
63 /
83 |
50.0% /
39.7% |
46.0% /
44.6% |
54.6% /
49.0% |
6.4 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.4% /
32.5% |
29.5 /
24.5 |
| 10 |
NO |
14 – 51 L |
-21.4 |
46.2% /
70.4% |
15.4% /
0.0% |
9.1% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
9.8 |
62.5% /
64.0% |
6.3% /
10.0% |
6.9 /
4.9 |
42 /
77 |
61.8% /
72.9% |
52.4% /
66.2% |
61.3% /
45.3% |
6.8 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.1% /
64.9% |
25.9 /
38.8 |
| 11 |
@BAL |
21 – 24 L |
-1.3 |
39.5% /
52.4% |
2.6% /
9.5% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
5.4 /
6.6 |
37.5% /
47.4% |
31.3% /
15.8% |
3.0 /
4.7 |
54 /
78 |
38.5% /
53.6% |
38.9% /
48.7% |
56.5% /
33.7% |
4.7 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
29.6% /
73.1% |
31.5 /
31.6 |
Cleveland Browns
@ 
Cincinnati Bengals