Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – BALTIMORE (-6) over Cleveland

· Deshaun Watson returned to the field last week and Browns WR Amari Cooper’s 128 yards against zone coverage were the most in the NFL. However, I expect Cooper and Cleveland’s passing game to be shut down in this game.

· Baltimore’s defense has the 10th-highest man coverage rate, and they can have cornerback Marlon Humphrey line up across from Cooper. Humphrey is conceding just 0.49 yards per cover snap (3rd) and he’ll likely neutralize the Browns’ best receiver.

· The Browns are targeting tight ends on 24.2% of passes (7th-most), but David Njoku has only a 44% success rate (3rd-worst) and the Ravens are allowing -0.01 EPA/target to tight ends (6th).

· Cleveland’s starting left tackle Jedrick Wills will miss at least four weeks and starting right tackle Jack Conklin is out for the year. The Browns will be down to their fourth-string tackle James Hudson against Baltimore’s defense with a 38.0% pressure rate (9th-highest).

· Cleveland’s ground game ranks 5th by our metrics but they won’t be able to pound the rock against a Ravens defense allowing only a 35.8% rush success rate (7th).

· The Browns’ defense is overrated again after conceding only 59 net yards last week in a bridge start for fifth-round rookie Clayton Tune after they traded Joshua Dobbs and before Kyler Murray was ready to make his comeback. The market has Cleveland as the league’s best defense, but Baltimore’s defense is better according to our numbers.

· The Ravens offense had a 46.4% success rate versus the Browns in their first meeting and Lamar Jackson averaged 7.5 yppp in that game.

· Baltimore LT Ronnie Stanley has not been up to his usual standard, as he’s surrendered a 10.2% pressure rate, and he will struggle against edge defender Myles Garrett, who ranks 3rd in pass-rushing efficiency.

· The Ravens are leading the NFL averaging 0.06 EPA/rush as the threat of Lamar Jackson as a runner makes it nearly impossible for defenses to cover every gap. Jackson leads all quarterbacks with 428 rushing yards. The Browns are conceding a 32.4% rush success rate (2nd) but they surrendered 131 yards to Baltimore’s ground game in week 4.

· Our model favors the Ravens by 8.3 points, with a predicted total of 39.6 points.

Baltimore is a Strong Opinion at -6.5 or less.