Game Analysis
BALTIMORE (-5.5) vs Cleveland
The Ravens will take the AFC North with a win or Steelers loss, but it won’t be easy versus an upstart Browns team. Our metrics suggest Cleveland’s offense is about 4 points better than their year-to-date numbers with Freddie Kitchens calling the plays. The Browns are led by two rookies who both might be the best in the class at their respective positions. Baker Mayfield is throwing for 8.1 yards per pass play in 7 games under Kitchens, which would top the league if he had done it for the full season. Carlos Hyde was the starting running back at the beginning of the year, but Nick Chubb is certainly playing at or above the level of Saquon Barkley since taking over the job. Chubb has a 39% rush success rate averaging 4.60 yards per rush after contact compared to Barkley’s 37% rush success rate and 3.19 yards per rush after contact. Although, Barkley is more dangerous catching passes out of the backfield, gaining 1.58 yards per route run to Chubb’s 1.14 yards per route run. The Ravens have the league’s second-best defense and will provide a tough test for Cleveland’s rookies in the season finale.
Baltimore has a great rookie of their own with Lamar Jackson now 5-1 as a starter and transforming the Ravens offense with his running ability. However, Jackson has faced defenses that struggle to stop the run thus far and the Browns 18th-ranked rush defense will be the best he’s seen. Still, Jackson will have time when dropping back to pass as Ronnie Stanley, ranked 2nd in pass blocking efficiency, should hold Myles Garrett in check.
Our model favors the Ravens by only 4.2 points in this game but Baltimore applies to a 40-9 ATS week 17 situation while Cleveland applies to a 17-75-3 ATS road letdown situation.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.5
40.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.2%
51.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.6%
6.1%
-
Int Rate
2.6%
2.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
25.3%
16.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
44.1%
34.8%
-
NYPP
7.0
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.3
28.1
-
RB YPR
4.3
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
27.0%
26.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.7%
48.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
54.0%
54.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
63.8
68.4
-
Early Down Succ
48.3%
53.3%
-
Succ Rate
45.5%
50.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
48.5%
41.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.7
28.7
-
Run Ratio
42.8%
41.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.2
28.9
-
Game Control
-1.2
1.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.4
37.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.4%
42.2%
-
Sack Rate
6.0%
8.7%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
1.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.5%
18.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.5%
35.0%
-
NYPP
6.4
5.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
34.7
23.2
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
20.9%
24.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.4%
40.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.8%
38.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
70.1
60.5
-
Early Down Succ
50.1%
44.0%
-
Succ Rate
49.3%
41.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.7%
36.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
4.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.8
28.7
-
Run Ratio
48.8%
38.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.8
28.7
-
Game Control
2.4
-2.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
PIT |
21 – 21 T |
-6.0 |
21.7% /
40.0% |
15.2% /
8.9% |
2.6% /
7.3% |
3.3 /
7.0 |
39.5% /
44.4% |
34.2% /
19.4% |
4.7 /
4.4 |
84 /
81 |
30.8% /
42.2% |
29.8% /
42.0% |
64.5% /
48.4% |
3.9 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
3.7% |
45.2% /
44.4% |
34.4 /
23.9 |
| 2 |
@NO |
18 – 21 L |
2.8 |
48.5% /
63.2% |
9.1% /
7.9% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
5.6 |
33.3% /
37.5% |
14.8% /
25.0% |
3.4 /
2.6 |
60 /
62 |
43.5% /
60.4% |
41.7% /
53.2% |
43.4% /
30.8% |
5.5 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
45.0% /
38.7% |
28.4 /
35.0 |
| 3 |
NYJ |
21 – 17 W |
-5.4 |
36.6% /
36.4% |
9.8% /
6.1% |
0.0% /
6.5% |
4.6 /
4.9 |
42.9% /
50.0% |
31.4% /
43.3% |
3.9 /
3.6 |
76 /
63 |
42.6% /
42.6% |
39.5% /
42.9% |
32.3% /
22.4% |
4.3 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
46.1% /
47.6% |
33.3 /
23.2 |
| 4 |
@OAK |
42 – 45 L |
2.1 |
37.2% /
53.3% |
4.7% /
5.0% |
4.9% /
3.5% |
6.5 /
7.1 |
43.8% /
33.3% |
21.9% /
36.7% |
6.5 /
4.7 |
75 /
90 |
42.1% /
52.1% |
40.0% /
46.7% |
57.8% /
44.2% |
6.5 /
6.3 |
2.7% /
0.0% |
42.7% /
33.3% |
26.1 /
34.9 |
| 5 |
BAL |
12 – 9 W |
0.7 |
62.1% /
80.6% |
17.2% /
6.5% |
4.2% /
3.4% |
10.5 /
9.5 |
46.4% /
48.0% |
35.7% /
32.0% |
4.0 /
4.6 |
57 /
56 |
45.5% /
47.8% |
54.4% /
66.1% |
57.7% /
35.1% |
7.3 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
49.1% /
44.6% |
19.7 /
31.4 |
| 6 |
LAC |
14 – 38 L |
-14.7 |
39.2% /
45.5% |
9.8% /
4.5% |
4.3% /
4.8% |
4.2 /
9.2 |
42.9% /
63.2% |
33.3% /
13.2% |
4.9 /
6.5 |
72 /
60 |
41.5% /
68.8% |
40.3% /
56.7% |
50.2% /
69.2% |
4.4 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
29.2% /
63.3% |
34.2 /
30.5 |
| 7 |
@TB |
23 – 26 L |
-6.5 |
38.5% /
51.8% |
12.8% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
4.8 /
6.1 |
39.1% /
42.4% |
30.4% /
30.3% |
5.2 /
3.5 |
62 /
89 |
45.7% /
49.3% |
38.7% /
48.3% |
41.0% /
35.4% |
4.9 /
5.1 |
1.6% /
2.2% |
37.1% /
37.1% |
37.6 /
21.3 |
| 8 |
@PIT |
18 – 33 L |
-5.4 |
36.8% /
51.4% |
5.3% /
2.7% |
2.8% /
2.8% |
4.3 /
6.8 |
38.1% /
59.4% |
38.1% /
12.5% |
3.5 /
5.3 |
59 /
69 |
40.0% /
58.5% |
37.3% /
55.1% |
55.3% /
39.8% |
4.0 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
35.6% /
46.4% |
30.2 /
27.8 |
| 9 |
KC |
21 – 37 L |
-10.7 |
46.7% /
63.6% |
4.4% /
6.1% |
2.3% /
3.2% |
6.4 /
10.9 |
56.0% /
58.3% |
24.0% /
29.2% |
4.1 /
5.8 |
70 /
57 |
51.9% /
61.7% |
50.0% /
61.4% |
26.0% /
62.1% |
5.5 /
8.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.7% /
42.1% |
21.8 /
33.3 |
| 10 |
ATL |
28 – 16 W |
8.8 |
71.4% /
54.7% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
10.3 /
5.9 |
45.2% /
47.4% |
19.4% /
36.8% |
6.9 /
3.7 |
52 /
72 |
62.5% /
57.4% |
55.8% /
52.8% |
45.7% /
36.1% |
8.3 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
2.8% |
59.6% /
26.4% |
23.6 /
27.3 |
| 12 |
@CIN |
35 – 20 W |
17.6 |
69.2% /
48.9% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
9.9 /
5.2 |
47.2% /
55.0% |
27.8% /
25.0% |
2.4 /
6.5 |
62 /
67 |
60.4% /
54.9% |
56.5% /
50.7% |
51.2% /
40.1% |
5.5 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
58.1% /
29.9% |
33.8 /
27.0 |
| 13 |
@HOU |
13 – 29 L |
-14.2 |
58.5% /
45.7% |
0.0% /
11.4% |
7.3% /
0.0% |
9.7 /
5.6 |
55.6% /
47.5% |
33.3% /
7.5% |
3.4 /
4.7 |
50 /
75 |
63.4% /
47.4% |
58.0% /
46.7% |
52.6% /
37.1% |
8.6 /
5.1 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
18.0% /
53.3% |
19.9 /
29.5 |
| 14 |
CAR |
26 – 20 W |
-0.4 |
37.5% /
40.9% |
4.2% /
2.3% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
9.7 /
6.8 |
34.8% /
56.0% |
30.4% /
24.0% |
5.1 /
3.8 |
47 /
69 |
38.2% /
48.1% |
36.2% /
46.4% |
68.0% /
45.3% |
7.4 /
5.7 |
4.3% /
0.0% |
48.9% /
36.2% |
25.2 /
37.3 |
| 15 |
@DEN |
17 – 16 W |
1.2 |
48.5% /
49.0% |
6.1% /
4.1% |
3.2% /
4.3% |
5.3 /
4.9 |
48.3% /
40.0% |
17.2% /
40.0% |
4.7 /
1.7 |
62 /
69 |
52.2% /
50.0% |
48.4% /
46.4% |
38.1% /
12.9% |
5.0 /
3.9 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
46.8% /
29.0% |
34.8 /
20.2 |
| 16 |
CIN |
26 – 18 W |
11.4 |
55.3% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
13.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.1 /
4.9 |
58.1% /
48.0% |
12.9% /
24.0% |
4.8 /
4.1 |
69 /
47 |
64.7% /
58.3% |
56.5% /
48.9% |
43.8% /
57.6% |
7.2 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.9% /
53.2% |
20.6 /
31.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
BUF |
47 – 3 W |
25.9 |
42.5% /
20.5% |
5.0% /
15.4% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
6.3 /
1.8 |
44.1% /
22.7% |
29.4% /
31.8% |
3.4 /
3.8 |
74 /
61 |
43.3% /
24.4% |
43.2% /
21.3% |
43.1% /
39.9% |
5.0 /
2.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
45.9% /
36.1% |
41.3 /
30.5 |
| 2 |
@CIN |
23 – 34 L |
-11.8 |
49.1% /
45.2% |
7.0% /
0.0% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
6.3 |
50.0% /
42.9% |
18.2% /
28.6% |
3.0 /
3.9 |
79 /
70 |
50.0% /
45.6% |
49.4% /
44.3% |
35.5% /
43.7% |
5.4 /
5.3 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
27.8% /
40.0% |
22.6 /
36.3 |
| 3 |
DEN |
27 – 14 W |
4.7 |
48.8% /
45.9% |
4.9% /
8.1% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
6.5 /
4.7 |
32.3% /
45.8% |
19.4% /
33.3% |
2.6 /
5.0 |
72 /
61 |
43.1% /
47.8% |
41.7% /
45.9% |
33.9% /
39.9% |
4.8 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
39.3% |
27.2 /
33.4 |
| 4 |
@PIT |
26 – 14 W |
6.3 |
47.7% /
47.9% |
4.5% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
8.1 /
5.5 |
48.5% /
16.7% |
9.1% /
25.0% |
3.0 /
1.7 |
77 /
60 |
51.9% /
50.0% |
48.1% /
41.7% |
32.7% /
42.1% |
5.9 /
4.8 |
1.3% /
1.7% |
42.9% /
20.0% |
36.8 /
21.2 |
| 5 |
@CLE |
9 – 12 L |
-0.7 |
80.6% /
62.1% |
6.5% /
17.2% |
3.4% /
4.2% |
9.5 /
10.5 |
48.0% /
46.4% |
32.0% /
35.7% |
4.6 /
4.0 |
56 /
57 |
47.8% /
45.5% |
66.1% /
54.4% |
35.1% /
57.7% |
7.3 /
7.3 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
44.6% /
49.1% |
31.4 /
19.7 |
| 6 |
@TEN |
21 – 0 W |
13.2 |
45.9% /
26.9% |
0.0% /
42.3% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
2.0 |
44.4% /
28.6% |
27.8% /
35.7% |
3.4 /
3.9 |
73 /
40 |
37.7% /
33.3% |
45.2% /
27.5% |
44.5% /
42.5% |
5.0 /
2.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
35.0% |
29.9 /
21.9 |
| 7 |
NO |
23 – 24 L |
1.7 |
46.3% /
45.2% |
2.4% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.6 |
52.2% /
50.0% |
30.4% /
12.5% |
3.3 /
3.4 |
64 /
71 |
50.0% /
48.0% |
48.4% /
47.9% |
19.7% /
31.2% |
5.5 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
35.9% /
56.3% |
21.8 /
27.6 |
| 8 |
@CAR |
21 – 36 L |
-10.2 |
45.7% /
60.0% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
7.7 |
77.8% /
31.4% |
16.7% /
20.0% |
5.6 /
4.5 |
64 /
65 |
56.0% /
47.9% |
54.7% /
44.6% |
26.2% /
26.3% |
5.1 /
6.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
28.1% /
53.8% |
23.0 /
37.5 |
| 9 |
PIT |
16 – 23 L |
-6.1 |
37.5% /
51.0% |
5.0% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
5.8 |
50.0% /
48.1% |
37.5% /
14.8% |
3.8 /
4.2 |
56 /
76 |
44.2% /
45.8% |
41.1% /
50.0% |
47.8% /
27.8% |
4.8 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.6% /
35.5% |
26.0 /
23.8 |
| 11 |
CIN |
24 – 21 W |
1.3 |
52.4% /
39.5% |
9.5% /
2.6% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
5.4 |
47.4% /
37.5% |
15.8% /
31.3% |
4.7 /
3.0 |
78 /
54 |
53.6% /
38.5% |
48.7% /
38.9% |
33.7% /
56.5% |
5.2 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
73.1% /
29.6% |
31.6 /
31.5 |
| 12 |
OAK |
34 – 17 W |
3.9 |
42.3% /
29.7% |
3.8% /
8.1% |
8.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
4.9 |
68.9% /
47.6% |
11.1% /
19.0% |
5.4 /
3.3 |
71 /
58 |
63.0% /
42.5% |
59.2% /
36.2% |
60.8% /
44.2% |
5.9 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
63.4% /
36.2% |
24.8 /
25.5 |
| 13 |
@ATL |
26 – 16 W |
2.5 |
50.0% /
36.7% |
7.1% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
3.2 |
61.5% /
37.5% |
11.5% /
31.3% |
4.0 /
2.2 |
80 /
46 |
63.8% /
44.1% |
57.5% /
37.0% |
29.3% /
8.3% |
4.6 /
2.9 |
1.3% /
2.2% |
65.0% /
34.8% |
25.9 /
25.6 |
| 14 |
@KC |
24 – 27 L |
-1.6 |
41.4% /
53.6% |
10.3% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
1.9% |
4.2 /
6.2 |
56.4% /
55.6% |
10.3% /
25.9% |
5.1 /
3.5 |
68 /
83 |
52.8% /
55.6% |
50.0% /
54.2% |
25.5% /
28.3% |
4.7 /
5.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
57.4% /
32.5% |
29.8 /
30.2 |
| 15 |
TB |
20 – 12 W |
2.3 |
36.0% /
26.9% |
8.0% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
4.0% |
5.1 /
6.0 |
53.8% /
54.5% |
11.5% /
9.1% |
4.7 /
3.9 |
77 /
48 |
49.1% /
45.7% |
48.1% /
39.6% |
39.7% /
59.1% |
4.8 /
5.0 |
2.6% /
0.0% |
67.5% /
45.8% |
32.3 /
34.8 |
| 16 |
@LAC |
22 – 10 W |
4.2 |
44.0% /
41.5% |
12.0% /
9.8% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
8.1 /
3.6 |
35.1% /
43.8% |
32.4% /
6.3% |
4.4 /
3.2 |
62 /
57 |
45.2% /
45.5% |
38.7% /
42.1% |
57.3% /
6.6% |
5.9 /
3.5 |
1.6% /
1.8% |
59.7% /
28.1% |
28.2 /
30.8 |
Cleveland Browns
@ 
Baltimore Ravens