Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – ATLANTA (+1) over Cleveland

· I had been waiting all week for confirmation on Cleveland’s linebackers and it looks like they will be without three edge defenders as well as middle LB Anthony Walker, who is out for the season with a torn quad tendon.

· Myles Garrett has 15 pressures (6th) but will be sidelined from a single car accident requiring a trip to the hospital on Monday. Browns edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney missed the Steelers game with an ankle injury and is also unlikely to suit up. DE Chase Winovich (hamstring) will be out at least a month.

· Furthermore, Cleveland DT Taven Bryan left the Steelers game with a hamstring and will not be in uniform on Sunday. Bryant has eight pressures which is more than double any other Browns interior defender.

· Our numbers have Cleveland’s defense 2.4 points worse with the absence of all of those defenders against the Falcons.

· Arthur Smith’s offensive scheme this season is using the play action to set up the run. Marcus Mariota leads the NFL with a 47% play action rate and the Falcons rush offense ranks 4th according to our metrics. The Browns have the 31st-rated rush defense.

· Kyle Pitts leads the Falcons with seven slot targets but Pitts should be neutralized by nickelback Greg Newsome, who is allowing only 0.63 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd).

· Atlanta WR Drake London is gaining 2.74 yards per route run (4th) but the rookie will be contained by Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward.

· The Falcons have great cornerbacks but have not defended tight ends well allowing 9.2 yards per target (29th) and Cleveland’s TEs have a 28.4% target share (4th).

· Browns guards Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller have allowed just five pressures and they will protect QB Jacoby Brissett from Atlanta interior defender Grady Jarrett, who ranks 8th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Atlanta and Cleveland are two of the three teams to have had all three games go over the total to start the year, but we think the market has adjusted correctly at this point.

· Our model has the Falcons by 2.3 points with a predicted total of 47.1 points. Some of the matchups do favor Cleveland but Atlanta applies to a 95-38-2 ATS situation and the line value is with the Falcons.

Atlanta is a Strong Opinion at pick or better.