Cleveland Browns @ Arizona Cardinals Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Note: The Over on this game was released as a 2-Star Best Bet to subscribers on Monday morning but has since moved out of Best Bet range. I still lean over 49 points.

Best Bet – **Over (46.5) – Cleveland (-2.5) vs ARIZONA

Arizona’s defense is surrendering 7.4 yards per pass play (30th) and Sunday will be just the 5th time all season Baker Mayfield has faced a below average pass defense. Mayfield should have time in the pocket as left guard Joel Bitonio, who ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency, will neutralize interior defender Corey Peters, who has a 13% pass rush win rate (10th). Cardinals’ former Pro-Bowl CB Patrick Peterson has clearly lost a step, as he’s conceding 1.51 yards per cover snap, which provides an excellent opportunity for Odell Beckham in this game (Beckham has faced the toughest opposing cornerbacks of any receiver in the league). Jarvis Landry is gaining 2.10 yards per route run in the slot (3rd) and he will exploit the Cardinals, who recently released starting nickelback Tramaine Brock (he was immediately picked up by the Titans). Kareem Hunt is getting 5.6 targets per game since joining the team in week 10 and the running back should be a pass-catching force in this matchup. Arizona’s linebackers Jordan Hicks and Haason Reddick are combining to allow more than 1.50 yards per cover snap. Nick Chubb is averaging 0.22 avoided tackles per rush (5th) and mainly running inside the tackles, which should be effective in this game as Cardinals interior defender Rodney Gunter has just a 4.7% run stop rate (7th-worst).

Kyler Murray’s poor performance the last two weeks is providing value on Arizona’s offense. The Cardinals are still gaining a decent 5.4 yards per play (21st) and they should move the ball versus a Browns defense ranked 28th by our numbers with a suspended Myles Garrett, whose 26% pass rush win rate ranks 4th among edge defenders. Murray will likely have time in the pocket against Cleveland’s depleted pass rush to find Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk. The Browns rush defense ranks 29th and I expect Arizona’s ground game to be effective when called upon.

Cleveland’s offense has taken heat for under-performing this season but the truth is much of the drop in production can be attributed to a difficult schedule. The Browns aren’t the same on defense without Myles Garrett but haven’t really been fully exposed the last two weeks against the Steelers and Bengals, who scored just two touchdowns from a combined 8 trips to the Redzone. Our model favors Cleveland by 1.5 points, with a predicted total of 51.2 points, and the Over is a 2-Star Best Bet 47 points or less and 1-Star at 47.5 points. Fortunately, we beat the market to this over for subscribers but unfortunately the over no longer applies as a Best Bet.

Team Stats
Game Log

Browns
Cardinals

CLE

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.1 35.8
Succ Pass Plays 41.1% 43.9%
Sack Rate 7.0% 8.2%
Int Rate 3.9% 2.5%
Deep Pass Rate 21.0% 18.8%
Big Pass Yards 50.9% 43.5%
NYPP 6.2 6.3

Rush

Rush Plays 25.5 26.8
RB YPR 4.9 4.4
Stuff Rate 21.4% 21.5%
Succ Rush Plays 45.5% 45.5%
Big Rush Yards 48.7% 44.9%
Yards Per Rush 5.0 4.7

Game

All Snaps 61.5 62.7
Early Down Succ 45.4% 48.9%
Succ Rate 42.9% 44.5%
Big Yards Rate 50.9% 45.5%
Yards Per Play 5.6 5.5
Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.5 28.6
Run Ratio 41.4% 42.9%
Starting Field Pos 29.8 28.0
Game Control 0.6 -0.6

Points 21.0 22.4

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	TEN	13 – 43 L	-7.1	39.5% / 35.7%	11.6% / 14.3%	7.9% / 0.0%	5.7 / 7.7	45.0% / 50.0%	5.0% / 21.4%	5.1 / 4.4	63 / 56	49.0% / 50.0%	41.3% / 42.9%	47.4% / 67.8%	5.5 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	31.7% / 50.0%	22.6 / 34.4
2	@NYJ	23 – 3 W	12.5	34.2% / 25.7%	7.9% / 11.4%	2.9% / 0.0%	8.0 / 4.8	28.6% / 41.7%	38.1% / 37.5%	3.3 / 3.9	59 / 59	33.3% / 39.5%	32.2% / 32.2%	74.4% / 42.4%	6.4 / 4.4	0.0% / 1.7%	35.6% / 40.7%	33.6 / 18.0
3	LA	13 – 20 L	-1.5	38.5% / 47.5%	7.7% / 5.0%	2.8% / 5.3%	4.5 / 6.4	37.5% / 50.0%	25.0% / 16.7%	4.0 / 3.8	63 / 64	40.0% / 51.0%	38.1% / 48.4%	44.1% / 24.1%	4.3 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.6%	38.1% / 37.5%	33.1 / 26.4
4	@BAL	40 – 25 W	7.4	50.0% / 52.6%	3.1% / 10.5%	3.2% / 5.9%	10.5 / 5.8	51.7% / 58.6%	24.1% / 13.8%	6.7 / 6.0	61 / 67	52.2% / 59.3%	50.8% / 55.2%	55.3% / 39.7%	8.7 / 5.9	0.0% / 1.5%	47.5% / 43.3%	26.2 / 27.8
5	@SF	3 – 31 L	-18.3	25.0% / 41.9%	14.3% / 6.5%	8.3% / 0.0%	2.8 / 5.5	33.3% / 37.5%	22.2% / 20.0%	5.7 / 6.9	46 / 71	34.3% / 40.4%	28.3% / 39.4%	71.1% / 52.0%	3.9 / 6.3	4.3% / 0.0%	39.1% / 56.3%	26.1 / 34.0
6	SEA	28 – 32 L	3.3	45.9% / 61.1%	0.0% / 8.3%	8.1% / 0.0%	6.7 / 7.9	50.0% / 52.6%	20.8% / 15.8%	6.5 / 4.5	61 / 74	48.0% / 61.0%	47.5% / 56.8%	48.5% / 46.9%	6.7 / 6.1	1.6% / 1.4%	39.3% / 51.4%	36.0 / 31.8
8	@NE	13 – 27 L	-12.1	38.9% / 43.6%	13.9% / 7.7%	3.2% / 0.0%	4.2 / 6.1	59.1% / 33.3%	22.7% / 40.7%	7.2 / 2.9	58 / 66	53.3% / 39.6%	46.6% / 39.4%	59.7% / 52.8%	5.3 / 4.8	3.4% / 0.0%	37.9% / 40.9%	25.2 / 36.2
9	@DEN	19 – 24 L	-6.2	45.5% / 39.1%	4.5% / 13.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.9 / 7.6	37.9% / 45.0%	20.7% / 15.0%	3.1 / 6.4	73 / 43	44.6% / 46.9%	42.5% / 41.9%	38.2% / 71.9%	4.8 / 7.0	0.0% / 2.3%	39.7% / 46.5%	34.2 / 23.4
10	BUF	19 – 16 W	2.5	47.5% / 42.9%	5.0% / 2.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.5 / 6.2	53.8% / 40.0%	30.8% / 15.0%	5.7 / 4.2	66 / 62	53.8% / 46.8%	50.0% / 41.9%	32.1% / 42.4%	5.6 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	39.4% / 32.3%	24.8 / 24.5
11	PIT	21 – 7 W	9.7	30.3% / 41.7%	3.0% / 8.3%	0.0% / 9.1%	5.7 / 3.7	37.1% / 37.5%	31.4% / 37.5%	3.0 / 3.6	68 / 64	33.3% / 48.0%	33.8% / 40.6%	54.6% / 28.8%	4.3 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	51.5% / 25.0%	41.5 / 21.8
12	MIA	41 – 24 W	16.5	60.0% / 37.2%	2.9% / 9.3%	2.9% / 5.1%	9.1 / 4.5	59.4% / 40.0%	6.3% / 15.0%	4.6 / 4.6	67 / 63	62.1% / 38.3%	59.7% / 38.1%	35.3% / 25.7%	7.0 / 4.5	0.0% / 0.0%	47.8% / 31.7%	32.2 / 28.5
13	@PIT	13 – 20 L	-1.7	38.5% / 50.0%	12.8% / 4.5%	2.9% / 4.8%	4.4 / 9.0	50.0% / 46.9%	12.5% / 18.8%	4.4 / 3.9	63 / 54	44.9% / 52.4%	42.9% / 48.1%	39.1% / 54.2%	4.4 / 6.0	1.6% / 0.0%	38.1% / 59.3%	26.4 / 30.8
14	CIN	27 – 19 W	3.3	40.0% / 51.2%	4.0% / 4.9%	8.3% / 2.6%	7.5 / 6.6	48.1% / 58.1%	18.5% / 12.9%	5.4 / 5.8	52 / 72	41.0% / 62.5%	44.2% / 54.2%	61.6% / 42.6%	6.4 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	51.9% / 43.1%	26.2 / 26.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	DET	27 – 27 T	-9.4	35.6% / 47.9%	8.5% / 6.3%	1.9% / 0.0%	4.7 / 7.5	56.5% / 53.1%	13.0% / 25.0%	4.9 / 3.6	82 / 80	41.7% / 57.6%	41.5% / 50.0%	39.5% / 45.5%	4.7 / 6.0	0.0% / 2.5%	28.0% / 40.0%	28.4 / 26.5
2	@BAL	17 – 23 L	-6.7	44.2% / 46.2%	7.0% / 5.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.7 / 6.6	36.4% / 45.5%	36.4% / 15.2%	1.8 / 5.5	54 / 72	48.8% / 47.3%	42.6% / 45.8%	65.9% / 62.3%	6.5 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	20.4% / 45.8%	20.0 / 28.7
3	CAR	20 – 38 L	-4.1	35.3% / 60.7%	15.7% / 7.1%	4.7% / 0.0%	2.5 / 8.6	68.2% / 38.7%	18.2% / 16.1%	5.5 / 5.6	73 / 59	41.8% / 53.2%	45.2% / 49.2%	35.1% / 46.7%	3.4 / 7.0	0.0% / 1.7%	30.1% / 52.5%	22.5 / 36.2
4	SEA	10 – 27 L	-11.8	44.4% / 56.3%	11.1% / 12.5%	3.1% / 0.0%	5.7 / 7.0	56.5% / 63.0%	13.0% / 25.9%	5.0 / 4.3	59 / 59	53.1% / 63.3%	49.2% / 59.3%	37.1% / 27.4%	5.4 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	39.0% / 45.8%	21.9 / 27.6
5	@CIN	26 – 23 W	4.5	45.5% / 53.8%	3.0% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.5 / 6.7	57.9% / 65.2%	13.2% / 30.4%	7.0 / 4.7	71 / 62	53.6% / 63.3%	52.1% / 58.1%	53.5% / 31.6%	7.2 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	53.5% / 37.1%	27.6 / 25.0
6	ATL	34 – 33 W	4.9	62.2% / 68.4%	0.0% / 5.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.2 / 9.0	34.5% / 52.0%	24.1% / 20.0%	3.5 / 4.1	66 / 63	51.0% / 63.5%	50.0% / 61.9%	55.4% / 37.6%	6.7 / 7.0	0.0% / 0.0%	43.9% / 39.7%	27.3 / 22.4
7	@NYG	27 – 21 W	6.5	43.5% / 41.9%	8.7% / 18.6%	0.0% / 2.9%	3.9 / 3.6	26.3% / 45.5%	21.1% / 22.7%	4.1 / 4.9	61 / 65	28.6% / 46.0%	32.8% / 43.1%	43.7% / 41.8%	4.0 / 4.0	0.0% / 3.1%	62.3% / 33.8%	40.1 / 24.5
8	@NO	9 – 31 L	-6.3	36.8% / 60.5%	10.5% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.3%	5.2 / 8.7	36.4% / 44.8%	45.5% / 17.2%	3.6 / 4.7	49 / 72	45.7% / 54.2%	36.7% / 54.2%	37.1% / 45.7%	4.8 / 7.1	0.0% / 0.0%	22.4% / 40.3%	26.1 / 31.2
9	SF	25 – 28 L	-5.3	48.1% / 55.3%	11.1% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.6 / 8.2	60.9% / 32.3%	17.4% / 35.5%	6.7 / 3.3	50 / 69	59.5% / 38.8%	54.0% / 44.9%	58.3% / 50.9%	7.1 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	46.0% / 44.9%	18.3 / 27.6
10	@TB	27 – 30 L	-1.0	42.6% / 40.4%	4.3% / 7.7%	2.2% / 4.2%	7.3 / 6.5	38.9% / 34.6%	38.9% / 30.8%	4.2 / 4.5	65 / 78	47.1% / 36.5%	41.5% / 38.5%	63.8% / 43.3%	6.4 / 5.9	1.5% / 1.3%	27.7% / 33.3%	28.4 / 23.8
11	@SF	26 – 30 L	3.6	43.2% / 57.4%	10.8% / 4.3%	0.0% / 4.4%	3.5 / 8.7	56.0% / 15.8%	20.0% / 42.1%	5.4 / 1.8	62 / 66	51.0% / 47.1%	48.4% / 45.5%	33.5% / 47.7%	4.3 / 6.7	3.2% / 0.0%	40.3% / 28.8%	29.0 / 29.8
13	LA	7 – 34 L	-18.7	37.5% / 54.3%	15.0% / 2.2%	2.9% / 0.0%	3.1 / 9.1	28.6% / 43.3%	19.0% / 23.3%	3.5 / 4.4	61 / 76	38.6% / 50.8%	34.4% / 50.0%	19.2% / 57.9%	3.2 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	34.4% / 39.5%	26.4 / 23.3
14	PIT	17 – 23 L	-5.2	48.6% / 45.5%	14.3% / 13.6%	10.0% / 0.0%	4.7 / 6.1	54.5% / 51.4%	31.8% / 20.0%	3.2 / 4.0	57 / 57	55.8% / 54.5%	50.9% / 49.1%	27.5% / 30.2%	4.1 / 4.8	0.0% / 3.5%	38.6% / 61.4%	33.2 / 26.1

Cleveland Browns @

Arizona Cardinals

Sun, Dec 15

1:05 PM Pacific

Game Analysis