Cincinnati Bengals @

Washington Football Club

Sun, Nov 22
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 463
Odds: Washington Football Club -1.5, Total: 46.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Cincinnati (+1.5) over WASHINGTON

Alex Smith is the league’s only quarterback with a check-down rate above 10% this season. Running back JD McKissic has 29 targets in the last two weeks, but Smith will need to look elsewhere on Sunday. The biggest strength of Cincinnati’s defense thus far has been limiting receivers out of the backfield, as the Bengals are conceding less than 5 yards per target to opposing running backs. Smith attempted 11 passes with 10+ air yards in the second half last week for 148 yards and he will need to continue looking downfield in this matchup when he has time to do so. However, Washington could be down to their third-string left tackle this week and Bengals edge defender Carl Lawson ranks 13th in pass rushing efficiency.

Joe Burrow faced pressure on 41% of his dropbacks last week with Pittsburgh’s defense overpowering his offensive line. Burrow was 0-for-13 with four sacks when pressured. Washington’s defense ranks 9th in pressure rate and has allowed 300 or fewer passing yards in every game this season. Jimmy Moreland is conceding just 0.94 yards per slot cover snap (5th) and the nickelback should limit Tyler Boyd on the inside. Tee Higgins has caught 32 first downs/touchdowns this year, tied for the second-most among rookie WRs, and Burrow will rely on Higgins this week with Boyd facing a tough matchup.

Our model makes Washington a 1.4-point favorite, with a predicted total of 47.2 points. There’s really no line value but Cincinnati applies to a 64-13-1 ATS subset of a 208-110-8 ATS bounce-back situation so I’ll lean with the Bengals.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bengals
  • Football Club
CIN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 44.8 37.4
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.7% 49.1%
  • Sack Rate 7.9% 3.0%
  • Int Rate 1.5% 2.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.3% 21.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 25.5% 40.1%
  • NYPP 5.7 7.3



Rush


  • Rush Plays 26.4 26.7
  • RB YPR 3.8 4.8
  • Stuff Rate 20.3% 19.4%
  • Succ Rush Plays 49.4% 48.5%
  • Big Rush Yards 29.8% 53.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.0 4.8




Game

  • All Snaps 71.2 64.1
  • Early Down Succ 49.1% 50.7%
  • Succ Rate 47.5% 49.9%
  • Big Yards Rate 28.0% 45.2%
  • Yards Per Play 5.0 6.4
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 0.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.9 26.5
  • Run Ratio 37.4% 41.6%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.0 28.6
  • Game Control -1.7 1.7
 
  • Points 22.7 27.8
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