Cincinnati Bengals @

Tennessee Titans

Sat, Jan 22
1:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 301
Odds: Tennessee Titans -3.5, Total: 47.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – TENNESSEE (-3.5) over Cincinnati

Strong Opinion – J Mixon (Cin) Under 60.5 Rushing yards (-115) at 58 or more

Tennessee’s offense averaged only 5.1 yards per play for the season(24th) but they were 0.6 yards per play better in the games with running back Derrick Henry and wide receiver AJ Brown both in the starting lineup. I think the Titans are a borderline top 10 offense at full strength because of the respect opposing defenses give to Henry as Tennessee faces a league-high average of 7.3 defenders in the box on early downs in one-score games (i.e. in competitive situations). The Titans ground game was about a half point better when Henry broke his foot in week 8 than they finished the season. Henry should be able to run all over a Bengals rush defense ranked 28th.

The threat of Henry and extra defenders in the box set up Ryan Tannehill to pick apart opposing defenses with play-action. Tannehill averaged 9.7 yards per attempt on play action in 2020 (3rd) and 10.2 ypa on play action before Henry went out this season. I expect Tannehill to find Brown and WR Julio Jones in the middle of the field on play action passes if his offensive line can hold off Cincinnati’s pass rush. Pro Bowl edge defender Trey Hendrickson has been cleared for action which is a huge boost for the Bengals as their pressure rate is 36% with him on the field compared to 18% without. Tennessee left tackle Taylor Lewan is solid, surrendering a 4.6% pressure rate, and could contain Hendrickson. On the other side, Bengals’ edge rusher Sam Hubbard had 5 pressures last week and he will line up across from RT David Quessenberry, who ranked 45th in pass blocking efficiency out of 54 qualifying tackles.

The Titans rush defense ranks 6th but Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor has been less reliant on the ground game down the stretch. The Bengals did not have a neutral pass rate above 60% until week 16 and now have decided to put the game in Joe Burrow’s hands with neutral game pass rates of 67%, 65%, and 67% the last three games the starting QB has been under center.

Cincinnati backup right tackle Isaiah Prince has now allowed 4 more pressures (25) and the same number of sacks (4) as starter Riley Reiff in 162 fewer pass blocking snaps. Prince will not be able to stay in front of Titans edge defender Denico Autry (17th in pass rushing efficiency). Tennessee interior defender Jeffery Simmons ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency and will provide pressure up the middle versus Trey Hopkins, who surrendered 4 sacks – the 3rd-most among centers.

Our model favors Tennessee by 4.7 points, with a predicted total of 48.6 points, and the Titans apply to a 51-12-2 ATS playoff home team situation while Cincy applies to a 4-25-1 ATS playoff situation and a 5-30-1 ATS situation.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bengals
  • Titans
CIN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 35.83 40.28
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.7% 45.9%
  • Sack Rate 8.7% 6.2%
  • Int Rate 2.4% 1.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.1% 17.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 43.6% 38.8%
  • NYPP 7.18 6.21



Rush


  • Rush Plays 25.50 23.39
  • RB YPR 4.01 4.23
  • Stuff Rate 23.5% 23.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 47.7% 50.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 35.5% 45.6%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.97 4.38




Game

  • All Snaps 61.33 63.67
  • Early Down Succ 50.3% 50.8%
  • Succ Rate 47.1% 47.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 41.5% 40.7%
  • Yards Per Play 5.84 5.54
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.76 28.43
  • Run Ratio 41.6% 36.7%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.73 28.83
  • Game Control 1.29 -1.29
 
  • Points 27.17 21.78
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