Game Analysis

Lean – Under (49) – PITTSBURGH (-5.5) vs Cincinnati

• Initially, the model and technical analysis for this game pointed towards the Bengals side and the under. You would need to value Cincinnati edge rusher Trey Hendrickson at around 3-4 points for this market to make sense, making him the most valuable non-quarterback in the league.
• Digging in, the Bengals defense is allowing 5.7 yppl and 0.06 EPA/play with Hendrickson on the field compared to 7.0 yppl and 0.34 EPA/play with Hendrickson off the field.
• Those splits imply Hendrickson has been worth 16.7 points per game by EPA and 5.7 points per game by yards per play.
• It’s plausible Hendrickson is, in fact, worth 3-4 points.
• Pittsburgh’s offense also has a favorable matchup in this game.  Aaron Rodgers is targeting his running backs on 23.8% of passes (3rd-most), and Cincinnati’s defense is surrendering a league-high 0.39 EPA/target to opposing running backs.
• Rodgers is averaging 16% more yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush compared to a blitz, and the Bengals have a 76% standard pass rush rate (4th). Cincinnati’s defense will not be able to disrupt Rodgers without blitzing and without Hendrickson.
• Our model favors the Steelers by 6.3 points, with a predicted total of 48.1 points and this game applies to a 583-430-16 Under situation.