Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Over (43) – PITTSBURGH (-2.5 -120) vs Cincinnati

Joe Burrow has been sacked on almost half of his pressured dropbacks this season and his pocket movement might be affected by his torn ACL last November. Zac Taylor has also been taking the ball out of Burrow’s hands an unusual amount which could be another sign he isn’t fully healthy. The Bengals have just a 55% pass rate (24th) after Burrow led the league in dropbacks prior to being injured last year.

Burrow will catch a break on Sunday with edge rusher TJ Watt out with a groin injury. Watt was 2nd in pass rushing efficiency in 2020 and is worth slightly more than a point by our numbers. Cameron Heyward’s 14 pressures are the most among all interior defenders, but he could be limited by LG Quinton Spain, who leads the NFL in pass blocking efficiency.

Each side will be without a starting WR with Tee Higgins (shoulder) and Dionte Johnson (knee) sidelined. However, both these offenses have solid receiver depth and shouldn’t be affected too much by the injuries.

Ben Roethlisberger is already feuding with new offensive coordinator Matt Canada as the Steelers are averaging only 5.3 yards per play (20th). I expect Pittsburgh’s offense to use more no huddle in this matchup.

Our model favors the Steelers by 2.5 points with a predicted total of 45.1 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bengals
Steelers

CIN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.0 40.0
Succ Pass Plays 44.0% 34.7%
Sack Rate 13.7% 8.4%
Int Rate 5.0% 2.1%
Deep Pass Rate 12.7% 13.4%
Big Pass Yards 36.5% 27.0%
NYPP 7.1 5.6

Rush

Rush Plays 28.0 28.0
RB YPR 3.8 2.8
Stuff Rate 20.0% 38.9%
Succ Rush Plays 46.4% 38.8%
Big Rush Yards 25.4% 41.1%
Yards Per Rush 3.8 3.3

Game

All Snaps 61.0 68.0
Early Down Succ 51.3% 38.0%
Succ Rate 45.4% 37.9%
Big Yards Rate 33.4% 32.7%
Yards Per Play 5.6 4.8
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.1 29.6
Run Ratio 45.0% 42.5%
Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
Game Control -1.6 1.6

Points 23.5 20.5

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	MIN	27 – 24 W	3.4	46.9% / 43.4%	15.6% / 5.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.2 / 6.8	52.8% / 36.4%	25.0% / 45.5%	4.1 / 3.0	68 / 75	60.4% / 41.1%	50.0% / 41.3%	40.0% / 37.3%	6.0 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.3%	52.9% / 29.3%	0.0 / 0.0
2	@CHI	20 – 17 W	-6.6	41.2% / 25.9%	11.8% / 11.1%	10.0% / 4.2%	6.1 / 4.3	40.0% / 41.2%	15.0% / 32.4%	3.5 / 3.6	54 / 61	42.1% / 34.9%	40.7% / 34.4%	26.8% / 28.0%	5.1 / 3.9	1.9% / 0.0%	37.0% / 55.7%	0.0 / 0.0

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@BUF	23 – 16 W	-2.1	44.1% / 44.4%	5.9% / 5.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.5 / 5.0	33.3% / 48.0%	42.9% / 16.0%	3.6 / 4.7	55 / 79	42.9% / 47.4%	40.0% / 45.6%	43.0% / 22.7%	4.8 / 4.9	0.0% / 1.3%	38.2% / 31.6%	0.0 / 0.0
2	LV	17 – 26 L	-3.6	47.6% / 59.0%	4.8% / 5.1%	2.5% / 0.0%	7.0 / 9.8	35.7% / 40.0%	35.7% / 32.0%	2.8 / 2.1	56 / 64	48.8% / 56.3%	44.6% / 51.6%	43.7% / 43.3%	6.0 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	25.0% / 39.1%	0.0 / 0.0

Cincinnati Bengals @

Pittsburgh Steelers

Sun, Sep 26

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis