Game Analysis

Cincinnati (-5) vs NY JETS

· Joe Burrow had 28 completions on passes with at least 20 air yards last year (11th) but only has one such completion through the first two weeks. Cincinnati’s offense has faced Cover 2 on 41% of snaps, the most in the NFL. The Bengals went against Cover 2 on just 14% of snaps in the first two games last season. 

· Defenses are playing Burrow differently and he has yet to adjust. The result is Cincinnati’s offense only averaging 4.3 yppl.

· Jets’ CB DJ Reed has conceded a completion on just 30% of targets into his coverage (4th) with zero receptions of more than 15 yards. Reed will line up across from Pro Bowl wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase on Sunday.

· Joe Flacco was quiet to start the game before leading the Jets all the way back to beat the Browns last Sunday. Through two weeks, 276 of Flacco’s 616 passing yards (45%) have come in the 4th quarter. Additionally, three of his five TDs this season have come in the final quarter against Baltimore and Cleveland.

· Flacco will likely face some interior pressure this week. DT DJ Reader ranks 5th in pass blocking efficiency and LG Laken Tomlinson’s 10 pressures allowed are 2nd-most among guards.

· Our model has the Bengals by only 2.5 points, with a predicted total of 44.6 points, but the Bengals apply to a 63-24-3 ATS bounce-back situation that plays on teams coming off an upset loss as a big road favorite and the matchups favor Cincy. I’ll pass.