Game Analysis

Note: This Best Bet was released to clients when the line was -3.5 but the Bengals are still a play at -4.

1-Star Best Bet – *Cincinnati (-3.5 Even) over NY GIANTS

• Joe Burrow’s 0.54 EPA/dropback last week was the 4th-best of his career but the Bengals lost to the Ravens because the defense couldn’t get off the field.
• Cincinnati’s defense is allowing only 5.6 yppl (23rd) but are surrendering 29.0 points per game (31st) because they force punts at a league-low 24% rate.
• The Bengals had a 43% pressure rate on Lamar Jackson last week but only turned it into 1 sack. Cincinnati’s defense should get sacks and force more punts going forward.
• Bengals’ nickelback Mike Hilton was out against the Ravens but he is conceding just 0.79 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th) and should suit up this week, which would limit the quick game for Daniel Jones.
• Cincinnati’s defense lost CB Dax Hill, but they have a capable backup in DJ Turner and the defensive line could get a boost with Sheldon Rankins likely back on the field. Rankins ranked 17th in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders last season but went down with a hamstring injury in week 2 and his loss has been notable with backup Zach Carter having only a 2.6% pressure rate.
• Joe Burrow’s 8.3-yard average depth of target last week was his highest of the season and he should continue going bombs away on Sunday night. The Giants will be without edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, who underwent wrist surgery and is going to miss this game, so Burrow should have time to throw.
• New York cornerback Deonte Banks is allowing 1.48 yards per cover snap (9th-worst) and he will struggle across from Ja’Marr Chase, who is averaging 0.78 EPA/target (3rd).
• The Bengals are targeting tight ends on 24.7% of passes (8th-most) and they have a favorable matchup as the Giants defense is surrendering a 68% success rate to opposing tight ends (31st).
• Our model makes Cincinnati a 8.2-point favorite with a predicted total of 44.4 points.

Cincinnati is a 1-Star Best Bet at -4 or less.