Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (40.5) – NEW ENGLAND (+3) vs Cincinnati

1-Star Best Bet – *New England Team Total Over (19.5)

· The Bengals total closed at 46.5 last week versus the Buccaneers. It is 6 points lower this week against the Patriots and it shouldn’t have dropped much at all because the Pats and Bucs have the same profile.

· Tampa Bay’s offense is averaging -0.027 EPA/play (22nd) while New England’s offense is gaining -0.047 EPA/play (24th).

· The Patriots are allowing 4.9 yppl (4th) and the Buccaneers are conceding 5.1 yppl (8th).

· Foxboro will have similar wind speeds as Tampa Bay did last Sunday afternoon and Cincinnati’s offense will benefit from switching from grass to turf, historically worth a point and a half to scoring.

· The Bengals will be without edge rusher Sam Hubbard but Trey Hendricksen has decided to play with a cast on his wrist.

· It is tumultuous for Mac Jones when he is pressured but he’s always been a good passer when kept clean, averaging 7.6 yppp this season and 7.7 yppp his rookie year. So, the absence of Hubbard should certainly help the Patriots’ aerial attack.

· New England’s defense has a 9.2% sack rate (3rd) but I think Joe Burrow will mostly be unphased behind his improved offensive line.

· Cincinnati’s offense has four new starters on the line from last year and were shaky in the first month this season before developing chemistry. The Bengals rank 7th in pass blocking efficiency since the start of October.

· The model favors New England by 1.1 points and projects a total of 47.8 points, and the Bengals apply to a 76-150-10 ATS late season road game situation.

The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 42 points or less and the New England Team Total Over 20 or less is a 1-Star Best Bet. You can play the Patriots at +3 as an alternate play if you don’t have Team Totals.