Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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MIAMI (pk) vs Cincinnati

I think both of these offenses are underrated due to some horrible quarterback play by Ryan Finley and Josh Rosen affecting the overall season numbers. Furthermore, Andy Dalton and Ryan Fitzpatrick have faced two of the most difficult schedules of opposing pass defenses thus far. However, high winds and rain in the forecast on Sunday means quarterback play will be significantly less relevant. Both of these teams have poor rushing attacks but I expect the ground game to be a major factor given the weather. Cincinnati’s rush defense ranks 31st while Miami’s 10th-rated rush defense will be without injured Raekwon McMillan, whose 10.4% run stop rate ranks 6th among linebackers.

There are some talented wide receivers with favorable matchups in this game but I’m not sure we’ll see much success given the conditions and with the offensive lines likely to struggle. Bengals’ WR Tyler Boyd is gaining 1.65 yards per slot route run (9th) and he will line up across from nickelback Jomal Wiltz, who is surrendering 1.56 yards per cover snap in the slot. John Ross has only played in 6 games but he is averaging more than 2 yards per route run in limited action. Miami’s DeVante Parker is gaining 2.40 yards per route run since week 10 (10th) when Preston Williams went down. Interior defender Geno Atkins ranks 8th in pass rushing efficiency and he will wreak havoc across from Dolphins LG Michael Deiter, whose 6 sacks allowed are 3rd-most among qualifying guards. Bengals two-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Carlos Dunlap has come on strong lately with a sack, two hits, a hurry, a forced fumble, and four run stops last week. Right guard John Miller might be out with a concussion forcing Cincinnati to play rookie Michael Jordan, who conceded 6 sacks in 7 starts earlier this year.

The weather will play a major role in this battle between two of the league’s worst teams. Our model favors the Bengals by 0.4 points with a predicted total of 44.6 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bengals
Dolphins

CIN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 41.1 31.6
Succ Pass Plays 39.6% 47.6%
Sack Rate 7.3% 5.2%
Int Rate 3.0% 1.9%
Deep Pass Rate 13.6% 18.9%
Big Pass Yards 37.8% 52.9%
NYPP 5.3 7.7

Rush

Rush Plays 22.9 32.1
RB YPR 3.7 4.4
Stuff Rate 27.2% 21.7%
Succ Rush Plays 43.0% 49.5%
Big Rush Yards 42.5% 47.4%
Yards Per Rush 3.8 4.7

Game

All Snaps 64.0 63.8
Early Down Succ 44.1% 51.5%
Succ Rate 41.7% 48.8%
Big Yards Rate 41.2% 51.8%
Yards Per Play 4.9 6.2
Fumble Lost Rate 1.5% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.1 29.3
Run Ratio 35.8% 50.2%
Starting Field Pos 27.7 28.0
Game Control -6.0 6.0

Points 15.1 25.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@SEA	20 – 21 L	0.8	46.4% / 37.5%	8.9% / 16.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.1 / 6.7	21.4% / 36.0%	35.7% / 28.0%	2.4 / 2.9	70 / 49	42.6% / 40.0%	41.4% / 36.7%	49.9% / 61.4%	6.1 / 4.8	4.3% / 2.0%	20.0% / 51.0%	27.8 / 31.0
2	SF	17 – 41 L	-16.7	37.0% / 65.4%	8.7% / 0.0%	2.4% / 3.8%	6.3 / 12.0	31.6% / 64.3%	52.6% / 9.5%	1.3 / 6.2	65 / 68	30.4% / 68.4%	35.4% / 64.7%	53.2% / 63.1%	4.9 / 8.4	0.0% / 0.0%	29.2% / 61.8%	25.6 / 29.6
3	@BUF	17 – 21 L	-6.7	44.7% / 45.9%	5.3% / 2.7%	5.6% / 2.8%	6.3 / 6.5	36.8% / 55.6%	31.6% / 19.4%	3.5 / 4.9	57 / 73	46.7% / 55.2%	42.1% / 50.7%	52.9% / 40.6%	5.4 / 5.7	3.5% / 1.4%	33.3% / 49.3%	30.5 / 29.6
4	@PIT	3 – 27 L	-10.4	24.4% / 71.0%	17.8% / 0.0%	2.7% / 0.0%	2.3 / 8.4	57.9% / 36.0%	21.1% / 40.0%	3.8 / 2.6	64 / 56	36.2% / 63.6%	34.4% / 55.4%	21.7% / 39.9%	2.7 / 5.8	1.6% / 1.8%	29.7% / 44.6%	30.3 / 32.9
5	ARI	23 – 26 L	-4.5	53.8% / 45.5%	2.6% / 3.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.7 / 7.5	65.2% / 57.9%	30.4% / 13.2%	4.7 / 7.0	62 / 71	63.3% / 53.6%	58.1% / 52.1%	31.6% / 53.5%	6.0 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	37.1% / 53.5%	25.0 / 27.6
6	@BAL	17 – 23 L	-7.4	43.9% / 55.9%	4.9% / 2.9%	2.6% / 0.0%	5.3 / 6.7	21.4% / 58.1%	42.9% / 18.6%	2.4 / 6.3	55 / 77	36.4% / 59.3%	38.2% / 57.1%	44.8% / 45.1%	4.5 / 6.5	0.0% / 1.3%	25.5% / 55.8%	27.3 / 25.5
7	JAC	17 – 27 L	-2.4	37.8% / 38.2%	4.4% / 5.9%	7.0% / 0.0%	5.7 / 7.2	30.0% / 52.3%	50.0% / 25.0%	1.7 / 4.9	65 / 78	34.0% / 53.4%	35.4% / 46.2%	53.6% / 66.7%	4.5 / 5.9	1.5% / 0.0%	30.8% / 56.4%	29.1 / 28.6
8	@LA	10 – 24 L	-8.5	38.6% / 51.6%	8.8% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.2 / 12.0	36.4% / 38.5%	9.1% / 42.3%	4.7 / 3.8	79 / 57	38.5% / 43.2%	38.0% / 45.6%	47.1% / 70.6%	5.1 / 8.2	0.0% / 0.0%	27.8% / 45.6%	21.8 / 15.6
10	BAL	13 – 49 L	-22.7	40.6% / 69.6%	6.3% / 4.3%	3.3% / 4.5%	4.7 / 10.6	62.5% / 65.2%	30.0% / 17.4%	3.9 / 5.9	72 / 46	56.6% / 70.3%	52.8% / 67.4%	29.6% / 46.4%	4.3 / 8.2	2.8% / 0.0%	55.6% / 50.0%	31.4 / 31.1
11	@OAK	10 – 17 L	-1.9	22.2% / 50.0%	13.9% / 9.4%	3.2% / 3.4%	2.0 / 8.5	59.1% / 41.2%	9.1% / 23.5%	7.9 / 3.3	58 / 66	39.5% / 46.8%	36.2% / 45.5%	58.5% / 56.7%	4.2 / 5.8	1.7% / 1.5%	37.9% / 51.5%	26.4 / 30.7
12	PIT	10 – 16 L	-0.7	26.7% / 30.0%	13.3% / 10.0%	0.0% / 3.7%	5.3 / 6.0	38.1% / 36.8%	19.0% / 21.1%	4.1 / 4.2	51 / 68	35.9% / 36.7%	31.4% / 33.8%	50.8% / 57.5%	4.8 / 5.0	3.9% / 0.0%	41.2% / 55.9%	23.8 / 30.4
13	NYJ	22 – 6 W	7.8	44.7% / 36.5%	2.6% / 7.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.1 / 4.0	36.0% / 41.2%	24.0% / 11.8%	1.8 / 3.6	63 / 69	45.7% / 38.8%	41.3% / 37.7%	0.0% / 14.8%	4.4 / 3.9	0.0% / 0.0%	39.7% / 24.6%	36.1 / 17.8
14	@CLE	19 – 27 L	-3.3	51.2% / 40.0%	4.9% / 4.0%	2.6% / 8.3%	6.6 / 7.5	58.1% / 48.1%	12.9% / 18.5%	5.8 / 5.4	72 / 52	62.5% / 41.0%	54.2% / 44.2%	42.6% / 61.6%	6.3 / 6.4	0.0% / 0.0%	43.1% / 51.9%	26.0 / 26.2
15	NE	13 – 34 L	-7.6	41.9% / 29.0%	0.0% / 6.5%	12.9% / 0.0%	4.9 / 3.7	46.9% / 62.5%	12.5% / 15.6%	5.1 / 5.5	63 / 63	48.9% / 50.0%	44.4% / 46.0%	40.6% / 47.1%	5.0 / 4.6	1.6% / 0.0%	50.8% / 50.8%	26.8 / 35.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	BAL	10 – 59 L	-32.5	37.1% / 74.1%	8.6% / 3.7%	6.3% / 0.0%	5.1 / 14.0	33.3% / 58.7%	50.0% / 13.0%	1.8 / 5.8	47 / 73	37.8% / 65.5%	36.2% / 64.4%	48.5% / 66.7%	4.3 / 8.8	2.1% / 0.0%	25.5% / 63.0%	22.6 / 31.6
2	NE	0 – 43 L	-16.0	28.3% / 60.0%	15.2% / 6.7%	10.3% / 0.0%	3.1 / 8.5	33.3% / 60.0%	33.3% / 14.3%	2.8 / 3.6	61 / 65	33.3% / 62.3%	29.5% / 60.0%	13.0% / 28.6%	3.0 / 5.9	0.0% / 1.5%	24.6% / 53.8%	27.9 / 33.5
3	@DAL	6 – 31 L	-11.1	40.9% / 48.5%	6.8% / 3.0%	0.0% / 3.1%	4.8 / 7.3	37.5% / 67.6%	29.2% / 2.9%	3.0 / 6.9	68 / 67	46.0% / 60.7%	39.7% / 58.2%	31.4% / 56.9%	4.2 / 7.1	1.5% / 0.0%	35.3% / 50.7%	28.7 / 26.1
4	LAC	10 – 30 L	-6.4	48.3% / 71.9%	17.2% / 3.1%	4.2% / 0.0%	5.6 / 9.7	55.6% / 39.4%	22.2% / 21.2%	4.0 / 2.4	47 / 65	52.8% / 57.1%	51.1% / 55.4%	34.3% / 23.1%	5.0 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	38.3% / 50.8%	25.0 / 31.8
6	WAS	16 – 17 L	-6.1	33.3% / 40.0%	10.4% / 0.0%	4.7% / 0.0%	3.9 / 6.6	52.4% / 45.5%	19.0% / 18.2%	4.0 / 4.4	69 / 58	42.3% / 50.0%	39.1% / 43.1%	28.0% / 42.8%	3.9 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	30.4% / 56.9%	28.3 / 27.3
7	@BUF	21 – 31 L	-0.6	55.6% / 50.0%	2.8% / 7.1%	2.9% / 0.0%	7.6 / 6.7	50.0% / 52.2%	33.3% / 13.0%	3.6 / 5.1	66 / 51	52.0% / 55.0%	53.0% / 51.0%	45.9% / 61.3%	5.8 / 6.0	1.5% / 0.0%	45.5% / 45.1%	25.5 / 30.2
8	@PIT	14 – 27 L	3.2	39.5% / 36.8%	10.5% / 5.3%	5.9% / 2.8%	4.5 / 6.2	36.8% / 48.3%	10.5% / 24.1%	3.2 / 5.4	57 / 67	41.3% / 41.5%	38.6% / 41.8%	0.0% / 51.8%	4.0 / 5.9	3.5% / 0.0%	33.3% / 43.3%	33.5 / 31.3
9	NYJ	26 – 18 W	4.5	50.0% / 50.0%	10.0% / 7.1%	0.0% / 2.6%	6.7 / 5.7	33.3% / 42.9%	37.5% / 23.8%	2.1 / 4.0	64 / 63	44.0% / 50.0%	43.8% / 47.6%	23.4% / 26.8%	4.9 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	37.5% / 33.3%	31.2 / 30.7
10	@IND	16 – 12 W	4.1	36.1% / 37.5%	8.3% / 2.5%	3.0% / 7.7%	4.4 / 4.8	26.9% / 41.4%	38.5% / 31.0%	2.7 / 3.8	62 / 69	30.2% / 41.5%	32.3% / 39.1%	22.7% / 55.0%	3.7 / 4.3	1.6% / 0.0%	41.9% / 42.0%	33.4 / 32.5
11	BUF	20 – 37 L	-10.6	36.5% / 51.5%	13.5% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.4 / 7.8	30.8% / 38.2%	46.2% / 20.6%	1.8 / 4.9	65 / 67	38.3% / 47.1%	35.4% / 44.8%	38.0% / 41.5%	4.7 / 6.3	1.5% / 0.0%	20.0% / 50.7%	28.2 / 29.2
12	@CLE	24 – 41 L	-16.5	37.2% / 60.0%	9.3% / 2.9%	5.1% / 2.9%	4.5 / 9.1	40.0% / 59.4%	15.0% / 6.3%	4.6 / 4.6	63 / 67	38.3% / 62.1%	38.1% / 59.7%	25.7% / 35.3%	4.5 / 7.0	0.0% / 0.0%	31.7% / 47.8%	28.5 / 32.2
13	PHI	37 – 31 W	-3.8	55.8% / 47.9%	7.0% / 4.2%	2.5% / 2.2%	8.2 / 6.1	25.0% / 52.6%	50.0% / 0.0%	2.9 / 4.8	63 / 67	44.7% / 49.1%	46.0% / 49.3%	48.9% / 28.0%	6.5 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	31.7% / 28.4%	24.7 / 35.6
14	@NYJ	21 – 22 L	-2.4	48.7% / 45.9%	5.1% / 2.7%	2.7% / 2.8%	6.2 / 7.1	42.3% / 37.5%	19.2% / 21.9%	4.7 / 3.5	65 / 69	50.0% / 45.3%	46.2% / 42.0%	36.2% / 30.2%	5.6 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	40.0% / 46.4%	27.7 / 30.0
15	@NYG	20 – 36 L	-5.5	43.2% / 56.7%	6.8% / 3.3%	0.0% / 10.3%	6.0 / 9.1	44.0% / 51.5%	24.0% / 15.2%	4.9 / 4.2	69 / 63	49.1% / 55.8%	43.5% / 54.0%	51.8% / 60.0%	5.6 / 6.5	1.4% / 0.0%	36.2% / 52.4%	28.4 / 32.5

Cincinnati Bengals @

Miami Dolphins

Sun, Dec 22

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis