Bengals WR Tee Higgins and OT Orlando Brown participated in walkthrough on Wednesday. Brown ranks 8th in pass blocking efficiency and he is out tonight, but Higgins, averaging 0.52 yards per route run more than backup rookie WR Jermaine Burton, is expected to play.

Joe Burrow has a yards per attempt against a standard pass rush 89% of his yards per attempt against the blitz but the Chargers’ pass rush took a blow last week when edge rusher Khalil Mack left after just four defensive snaps and Lose Angeles may be forced to blitz more often with Mack sidelined tonight.

Cincinnati’s offense is averaging 47% more yppp versus Cover 4 than other coverages (3rd) and the Chargers have the 4th-highest Cover 4 rate.

Furthermore, Los Angeles will be without starting cornerback Asante Samuel. Backup rookie fifth-round cornerback Cam Hart will struggle across from Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase, who had 17 targets for 264 yards last week.

The Chargers’ tight ends have a 27% target share (8th-most) and Justin Herbert will feature them as Cincinnati’s defense is allowing a 63% success rate to opposing tight ends (27th). Los Angeles WR Ladd McConkey is averaging 0.52 EPA/target (10th) but he will be shut down on the inside against nickelback Mike Hilton, who is conceding just 0.95 yards per cover snap in the slot (7th).

Our model favors the Bengals by 2.5 points, with a predicted total of 46.3 points, and the Bengals apply to an 83-32-3 ATS bounce-back situation tonight.

Cincinnati is a Strong Opinion at pick or better