Game Analysis
Lean – Under (58) – KANSAS CITY (-6) vs Cincinnati
Kansas City has covered the spread in every game this season versus the closing line (the line in their 4 point win at Denver was -4.5 for much of the week before closing at -3.5). The Chiefs have had that remarkable success despite their 29th-ranked defense that’s allowed 2,042 passing yards, the most through the first 6 games of a season since 1940. The Chiefs are confident Eric Berry will play at some point this season but he likely won’t be in uniform this week. Still, the Bengals don’t have the personnel to exploit Berry’s absence without TE Tyler Eifert. Chris Jones, whose 19 pressures rank 12th among interior defensive linemen, should cause havoc across from right guard Alex Redmond, who leads all offensive linemen with 12 pressures allowed within 2.5 seconds of the snap (2.5 is the NFL average time to throw).
Kansas City’s offense ranks 2nd only behind the Rams in our ratings, but their interior offensive line may be in trouble as well without right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif and potentially center Mitch Morse (concussion). Geno Atkins, who ranks 2nd in pass rush efficiency among interior defensive linemen, should have a field day up the middle against the weakened interior of the Chiefs’ line.
Cincy WR Tyler Boyd has hauled in all 37 of his catchable targets this season and has certainly earned the trust of Andy Dalton with 21 targets on late downs. Boyd is gaining 1.8 yards per route run in the slot this season and should battle all night with Kendall Fuller, who came over from Washington in the Alex Smith trade this offseason.
The Chiefs will play on Sunday night for the second straight week because the 49ers/C.J. Beathard were flexed out. Our model favors Kansas City by 6 points and I have no opinion on the side of this game – although I will lean with the Under (our model projects 55 points).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.3
41.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
55.4%
55.8%
-
Sack Rate
5.6%
5.9%
-
Int Rate
3.3%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.5%
19.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.2%
34.2%
-
NYPP
7.2
7.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
20.7
25.7
-
RB YPR
4.5
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
22.8%
18.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.0%
47.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
56.1%
38.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
59.0
66.8
-
Early Down Succ
52.4%
49.4%
-
Succ Rate
52.0%
52.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.0%
37.1%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
6.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.3%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
29.2
-
Run Ratio
35.6%
39.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.8
27.4
-
Game Control
-0.1
0.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.7
43.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
59.6%
50.9%
-
Sack Rate
3.1%
7.5%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
2.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
25.1%
23.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
53.1%
43.7%
-
NYPP
9.5
7.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.7
23.7
-
RB YPR
4.3
5.2
-
Stuff Rate
19.1%
17.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.6%
59.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.8%
44.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
5.3
Game
-
All Snaps
60.3
66.8
-
Early Down Succ
55.9%
54.1%
-
Succ Rate
54.5%
55.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
50.6%
46.3%
-
Yards Per Play
7.1
7.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.3%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.2
27.7
-
Run Ratio
44.6%
35.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.7
24.6
-
Game Control
6.7
-6.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@IND |
34 – 23 W |
-3.1 |
60.0% /
56.4% |
6.7% /
3.6% |
3.6% /
1.9% |
7.6 /
5.5 |
65.0% /
54.5% |
20.0% /
22.7% |
5.1 /
3.4 |
50 /
77 |
64.3% /
53.3% |
62.0% /
55.8% |
38.8% /
10.0% |
6.6 /
4.9 |
2.0% /
1.3% |
40.0% /
28.6% |
26.2 /
33.4 |
| 2 |
BAL |
34 – 23 W |
11.8 |
45.2% /
49.1% |
0.0% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
6.3 /
6.3 |
42.9% /
50.0% |
28.6% /
18.2% |
3.9 /
3.0 |
70 /
79 |
45.6% /
50.0% |
44.3% /
49.4% |
43.7% /
35.5% |
5.3 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
40.0% /
27.8% |
36.3 /
22.6 |
| 3 |
@CAR |
21 – 31 L |
-4.5 |
53.2% /
40.0% |
4.3% /
4.0% |
8.9% /
0.0% |
7.0 /
5.9 |
53.8% /
47.6% |
23.1% /
21.4% |
5.1 /
5.5 |
60 /
67 |
56.0% /
46.2% |
53.3% /
44.8% |
58.1% /
54.8% |
6.6 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
21.7% /
62.7% |
23.5 /
30.5 |
| 4 |
@ATL |
37 – 36 W |
0.5 |
52.3% /
61.9% |
6.8% /
7.1% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
7.0 /
9.6 |
56.5% /
45.8% |
8.7% /
12.5% |
4.3 /
3.8 |
67 /
66 |
50.9% /
52.0% |
53.7% /
56.1% |
33.4% /
37.2% |
6.1 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.3% /
36.4% |
33.0 /
32.4 |
| 5 |
MIA |
27 – 17 W |
-4.6 |
68.2% /
77.3% |
9.1% /
13.6% |
5.0% /
10.5% |
10.4 /
7.7 |
29.6% /
45.5% |
25.9% /
13.6% |
3.9 /
5.8 |
49 /
44 |
45.7% /
48.9% |
46.9% /
61.4% |
52.9% /
25.3% |
6.8 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
2.3% |
55.1% /
50.0% |
22.9 /
25.5 |
| 6 |
PIT |
21 – 28 L |
-0.7 |
53.3% /
50.0% |
6.7% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
8.0 |
46.2% /
40.9% |
30.8% /
22.7% |
4.8 /
5.1 |
58 /
68 |
52.2% /
46.2% |
51.7% /
47.1% |
25.1% /
60.2% |
4.7 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
22.4% /
32.4% |
30.7 /
19.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@LAC |
38 – 28 W |
9.6 |
46.4% /
55.8% |
3.6% /
1.9% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
9.1 /
8.0 |
59.3% /
59.1% |
25.9% /
18.2% |
3.9 /
5.6 |
55 /
74 |
55.6% /
61.3% |
52.7% /
56.8% |
66.0% /
45.1% |
6.6 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
49.1% /
29.7% |
29.1 /
20.1 |
| 2 |
@PIT |
42 – 37 W |
9.7 |
69.0% /
50.8% |
3.4% /
1.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
11.1 /
7.2 |
44.4% /
38.5% |
14.8% /
23.1% |
4.8 /
2.5 |
56 /
74 |
63.8% /
51.7% |
57.1% /
48.6% |
56.1% /
35.2% |
8.1 /
6.4 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
48.2% /
17.6% |
30.3 /
21.8 |
| 3 |
SF |
38 – 27 W |
13.8 |
55.0% /
44.1% |
5.0% /
11.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
6.7 |
46.7% /
51.7% |
16.7% /
24.1% |
2.6 /
6.1 |
70 /
63 |
51.9% /
50.0% |
51.4% /
47.6% |
28.2% /
42.9% |
5.5 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.9% /
46.0% |
26.8 /
22.8 |
| 4 |
@DEN |
27 – 23 W |
-1.9 |
50.0% /
32.4% |
2.2% /
10.8% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
6.6 /
6.1 |
66.7% /
72.7% |
14.8% /
18.2% |
5.3 /
7.2 |
73 /
59 |
59.3% /
53.3% |
56.2% /
47.5% |
48.8% /
59.7% |
6.1 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.0% /
37.3% |
30.6 /
24.2 |
| 5 |
JAC |
30 – 14 W |
14.4 |
87.0% /
73.7% |
4.3% /
13.2% |
9.1% /
12.1% |
13.0 /
10.6 |
28.1% /
70.6% |
25.0% /
5.9% |
4.0 /
5.9 |
55 /
55 |
45.5% /
48.4% |
52.7% /
72.7% |
49.3% /
49.8% |
7.7 /
9.1 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
58.2% /
30.9% |
21.3 /
28.3 |
| 6 |
@NE |
40 – 43 L |
-5.3 |
50.0% /
48.6% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
9.8 /
8.8 |
70.6% /
64.1% |
17.6% /
15.4% |
5.5 /
4.5 |
53 /
76 |
59.5% /
60.0% |
56.6% /
56.6% |
55.4% /
44.9% |
8.4 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
32.1% /
51.3% |
39.9 /
30.6 |
Cincinnati Bengals
@ 
Kansas City Chiefs