Cincinnati Bengals @

Houston Texans

Sun, Dec 27
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 463
Odds: Houston Texans -7.5, Total: 46

Game Analysis

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HOUSTON (-7.5) vs Cincinnati

Lean – Under (46)

Don’t let Cincinnati’s upset win last week in Ryan Finley’s first start of the season fool you into thinking he’s anywhere near a competent backup quarterback. Finley is still averaging less than 3.5 yards per pass play for his career and I doubt Zac Taylor wants Finley to play a major role even versus a Texans secondary missing top CB Bradley Roby. RT Bobby Hart ranks 53rd out of 57 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency and he has a tough assignment across from JJ Watt, even though the edge defender is having a down season by his standards. Giovani Bernard had 25 carries last week against the Steelers and I expect the running back to be featured versus Houston’s 27th-rated rush defense.

Deshaun Watson has taken 16 sacks in the last three weeks as the loss of Will Fuller, Randall Cobb, and Kenny Stills is clearly being felt as the backup WRs struggle getting open. However, the script could be different this Sunday with LT Laremy Tunsil (ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency) limiting the Bengals’ main pass rushing threat DE Carl Lawson, who had 9 pressures last week versus the Steelers.

Our model favors the Texans by 7.0 points, with a predicted total of 43.2 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bengals
  • Texans
CIN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 42.7 35.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 43.9% 49.9%
  • Sack Rate 8.4% 3.3%
  • Int Rate 2.1% 2.1%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.8% 18.7%
  • Big Pass Yards 24.0% 38.9%
  • NYPP 5.3 7.1



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.5 28.4
  • RB YPR 3.5 4.6
  • Stuff Rate 22.2% 18.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 47.8% 48.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 29.4% 51.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.7 4.6




Game

  • All Snaps 67.2 64.2
  • Early Down Succ 46.8% 51.9%
  • Succ Rate 45.2% 50.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 26.5% 43.7%
  • Yards Per Play 4.7 6.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.6% 0.3%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.4 27.4
  • Run Ratio 36.4% 44.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.1 29.7
  • Game Control -2.7 2.7
 
  • Points 18.8 26.0
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