Game Analysis

GREEN BAY (-14) vs Cincinnati

• It looks like the Bengals plan to start Joe Flacco after trading for him earlier in the week, but I’m not convinced it’s an upgrade. Jake Browning was averaging -0.14 EPA/play, and I know some of it was in garbage time, but Flacco is averaging -0.29 EPA/play this season.
• Flacco has lost all pocket mobility in his older age, which will be disastrous behind Cincinnati’s last-ranked offensive line in pass blocking efficiency versus Green Bay’s defense with a 43% pressure rate (6th).
• The Packers will be without IDL Devonte Wyatt, who has a 13.3% pressure rate. Backup interior defender Colby Wooden has a 2.6% pressure rate. Wyatt is worth 0.4 points by our numbers.
• Green Bay’s offensive line ranks 31st in pass blocking efficiency, but it will improve with the likely return of starting RT Zach Tom and starting LG Aaron Banks. The Packers ranked 11th in pass blocking efficiency in 2024.
• Green Bay should get an early lead and be able to run out the clock in the second half, as the Bengals are one of 8 defenses allowing a positive EPA/rush.
• Our model favors the Packers by 13.3 points, with a predicted total of 45.6 points, but Green Bay applies to an 80-28-2 ATS favorite off a bye week angle while Cincy applies to a 16-51-2 ATS double-digit dog situation based on their recent horrible play. I used Green Bay in my spread pool.