Cincinnati Bengals @

Detroit Lions

Sun, Oct 17
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 263
Odds: Detroit Lions +3.5, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Cincinnati (-3.5 -105) over DETROIT

Jared Goff’s average completion last week went for just 2.5 air yards, which was the lowest of any quarterback this season except for the 2.1 Goff had in week 3. Lions WR Quintez Cephus suffered a broken collarbone last Sunday and WR Tyrell Williams is dealing with concussion symptoms – leaving Kalif Raymond as the only viable threat for Goff at wide receiver. However, Raymond will be shut down by Bengals CB Chidobe Awuzie, who conceded just three first downs on 12 targets last week.

Lions’ Center Frank Ragnow ranked 8th in pass blocking efficiency but he is done for the season and worth a half point to Detroit’s offense. Interior defender DJ Reader (18th in pass rushing efficiency) will breeze by backup C Evan Brown along with guards Halapoulivaati Vaitai and Jonah Jackson, who are combining to allow 6.4 pressures per game.

Lions’ rookie LT Penei Sewell is 53rd out of 60 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency and Taylor Decker is still out. That means Bengals’ edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, who has 4.5 sacks (10th), should have an easy time getting to the quarterback. Detroit’s pass attack is inept, but the Lions could find room on the ground versus Cincinnati’s 31st-rated rush defense.

Detroit’s secondary has no chance of keeping up with Joe Burrow’s top receivers as AJ Parker is surrendering 1.53 yards per cover snap in the slot, which ranks 19th out or 22 qualifying nickelbacks, and WR Tyler Boyd has 30 slot targets, which ranks 3rd in the league. WR Ja’Marr Chase leads the NFL with 6 deep receptions, and he should get behind Lions CB Amani Oruwariye, who surrendered 96 yards and four first downs last week.

Our model favors the Bengals by 5.9 points, with a predicted total of 47.2 points, and the matchup is very favorable for Cincy.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bengals
  • Lions
CIN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 31.6 41.6
  • Succ Pass Plays 49.4% 43.0%
  • Sack Rate 7.5% 6.4%
  • Int Rate 4.2% 2.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 14.1% 15.5%
  • Big Pass Yards 38.6% 37.0%
  • NYPP 8.2 6.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 25.2 24.6
  • RB YPR 4.0 3.8
  • Stuff Rate 22.5% 29.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 46.8% 37.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 29.2% 49.6%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.9 4.1




Game

  • All Snaps 56.8 66.2
  • Early Down Succ 51.7% 43.7%
  • Succ Rate 47.7% 42.2%
  • Big Yards Rate 37.3% 40.5%
  • Yards Per Play 6.2 5.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 0.3%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 32.5 30.5
  • Run Ratio 44.8% 38.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control -0.1 0.1
 
  • Points 23.4 19.4
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