Cincinnati Bengals @

Denver Broncos

Sun, Nov 19
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 469
Odds: Denver Broncos -2.5, Total: 38.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Cincinnati (2.5) over DENVER

Lean – Under (38.5)

Cincinnati’s offensive line has been their Achilles heel all season, which is not a recipe for success in Denver. Two surface-level indicators of offensive line quality are sacks allowed rate and team yards per rush attempt, where the Bengals rank 26th and 31st respectively. Meanwhile, the Broncos defensive line ranks 17th sack rate and 3rd in yards per rush allowed. Denver’s pass rush has more talent than that 17th rank indicates finishing each of the past 2 seasons ranked in the top-5 and I expect Von Miller and Shane Ray to get after Andy Dalton.

Brock Osweiler threw for 6.7 yppp last week but I do not expect him to play at that level moving forward. The Patriots have one of the worst secondaries in the league and Osweiler did most of his damage after the game was already out of reach. The Bengals defense allows just 4.7 yppl (2nd) and I expect them to shut down Denver’s offense on Sunday. The math projects just 36 total points and I will lean with the Under at 38 or higher and I will also lean with Cincinnati on the basis of line value.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bengals
  • Broncos
CIN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 32.9 37.1
  • Succ Pass Plays 40.8% 40.1%
  • Sack Rate 8.6% 7.3%
  • Int Rate 2.8% 2.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 16.8% 15.7%
  • Big Pass Yards 43.4% 37.8%
  • NYPP 6.2 5.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 23.6 31.8
  • RB YPR 3.0 3.6
  • Stuff Rate 26.3% 21.4%
  • Succ Rush Plays 33.8% 47.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 39.9% 30.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.1 3.8




Game

  • All Snaps 56.4 68.9
  • Early Down Succ 40.3% 43.9%
  • Succ Rate 37.1% 42.9%
  • Big Yards Rate 43.9% 36.3%
  • Yards Per Play 4.8 4.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.7% 0.3%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.0 28.9
  • Run Ratio 41.5% 46.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.4 27.9
  • Game Control -0.4 0.4
 
  • Points 16.6 20.2
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