Game Analysis
Lean – Cincinnati (2.5) over DENVER
Lean – Under (38.5)
Cincinnati’s offensive line has been their Achilles heel all season, which is not a recipe for success in Denver. Two surface-level indicators of offensive line quality are sacks allowed rate and team yards per rush attempt, where the Bengals rank 26th and 31st respectively. Meanwhile, the Broncos defensive line ranks 17th sack rate and 3rd in yards per rush allowed. Denver’s pass rush has more talent than that 17th rank indicates finishing each of the past 2 seasons ranked in the top-5 and I expect Von Miller and Shane Ray to get after Andy Dalton.
Brock Osweiler threw for 6.7 yppp last week but I do not expect him to play at that level moving forward. The Patriots have one of the worst secondaries in the league and Osweiler did most of his damage after the game was already out of reach. The Bengals defense allows just 4.7 yppl (2nd) and I expect them to shut down Denver’s offense on Sunday. The math projects just 36 total points and I will lean with the Under at 38 or higher and I will also lean with Cincinnati on the basis of line value.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.9
37.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
40.8%
40.1%
-
Sack Rate
8.6%
7.3%
-
Int Rate
2.8%
2.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.8%
15.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.4%
37.8%
-
NYPP
6.2
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.6
31.8
-
RB YPR
3.0
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
26.3%
21.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
33.8%
47.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.9%
30.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.1
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
56.4
68.9
-
Early Down Succ
40.3%
43.9%
-
Succ Rate
37.1%
42.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.9%
36.3%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
4.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.7%
0.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.0
28.9
-
Run Ratio
41.5%
46.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.4
27.9
-
Game Control
-0.4
0.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.8
34.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.4%
44.9%
-
Sack Rate
8.1%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
3.9%
1.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.5%
15.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.4%
40.4%
-
NYPP
5.5
6.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.9
26.7
-
RB YPR
3.8
2.9
-
Stuff Rate
19.5%
34.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.3%
31.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
31.4%
36.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.2
Game
-
All Snaps
66.7
60.7
-
Early Down Succ
42.6%
43.2%
-
Succ Rate
41.1%
38.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.9%
41.6%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
4.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.5
28.5
-
Run Ratio
41.7%
43.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.1
34.5
-
Game Control
-4.9
4.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
BAL |
0 – 20 L |
-11.0 |
30.6% / 27.8% |
13.9% / 5.6% |
12.9% / 5.9% |
4.0 / 6.2 |
36.4% / 45.2% |
22.7% / 19.0% |
3.5 / 3.7 |
58 / 60 |
34.1% / 39.1% |
32.8% / 40.0% |
45.7% / 32.1% |
3.8 / 4.5 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
37.9% / 70.0% |
30.8 / 32.2 |
2 |
HOU |
9 – 13 L |
-1.4 |
31.6% / 40.7% |
7.9% / 11.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 3.6 |
54.2% / 51.4% |
16.7% / 31.4% |
3.4 / 4.8 |
62 / 62 |
44.4% / 53.2% |
40.3% / 46.8% |
41.0% / 39.1% |
4.8 / 4.3 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
38.7% / 56.5% |
31.2 / 24.1 |
3 |
@GB |
24 – 27 L |
6.6 |
53.3% / 43.8% |
10.0% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
6.4 / 5.8 |
32.3% / 47.1% |
29.0% / 29.4% |
3.6 / 3.8 |
61 / 65 |
46.8% / 44.0% |
42.6% / 44.6% |
31.8% / 58.1% |
5.0 / 5.3 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
50.8% / 26.2% |
26.5 / 25.8 |
4 |
@CLE |
31 – 7 W |
16.5 |
60.6% / 29.5% |
9.1% / 4.5% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
8.0 / 3.9 |
40.0% / 41.2% |
26.7% / 35.3% |
2.9 / 2.6 |
63 / 61 |
50.0% / 32.6% |
50.8% / 32.8% |
43.4% / 33.0% |
5.6 / 3.5 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
47.6% / 27.9% |
28.3 / 26.4 |
5 |
BUF |
20 – 16 W |
3.1 |
43.2% / 32.6% |
2.7% / 14.0% |
5.6% / 2.7% |
8.7 / 3.2 |
22.6% / 45.8% |
22.6% / 20.8% |
2.2 / 3.4 |
68 / 67 |
37.0% / 38.8% |
33.8% / 37.3% |
47.7% / 22.2% |
5.8 / 3.3 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
45.6% / 35.8% |
25.6 / 34.8 |
7 |
@PIT |
14 – 29 L |
-7.2 |
35.3% / 48.0% |
11.8% / 0.0% |
6.7% / 0.0% |
3.2 / 10.7 |
22.2% / 37.0% |
38.9% / 17.4% |
4.0 / 3.4 |
52 / 71 |
32.4% / 49.1% |
30.8% / 40.8% |
35.6% / 56.5% |
3.5 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.6% / 64.8% |
29.1 / 29.4 |
8 |
IND |
24 – 23 W |
-0.5 |
43.8% / 39.5% |
9.4% / 9.3% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
6.8 / 5.0 |
30.4% / 60.7% |
30.4% / 10.7% |
2.6 / 4.1 |
55 / 71 |
40.0% / 48.1% |
38.2% / 47.9% |
46.0% / 18.1% |
5.1 / 4.7 |
3.6% / 0.0% |
41.8% / 39.4% |
32.7 / 31.4 |
9 |
@JAC |
7 – 23 L |
-7.2 |
30.0% / 55.3% |
10.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.0 / 6.8 |
15.8% / 41.5% |
21.1% / 12.2% |
1.6 / 3.7 |
39 / 79 |
29.6% / 44.1% |
23.1% / 48.1% |
52.7% / 32.8% |
3.8 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
48.7% / 51.9% |
20.2 / 21.1 |
10 |
@TEN |
20 – 24 L |
-2.6 |
38.9% / 43.8% |
2.8% / 8.3% |
0.0% / 2.3% |
7.1 / 4.9 |
50.0% / 52.8% |
28.6% / 16.7% |
3.8 / 5.0 |
50 / 84 |
48.7% / 46.4% |
42.0% / 47.6% |
51.0% / 34.6% |
6.2 / 5.0 |
4.0% / 1.2% |
28.0% / 42.9% |
30.9 / 26.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
LAC |
24 – 21 W |
6.6 |
50.0% / 47.1% |
12.5% / 2.9% |
3.6% / 3.0% |
5.7 / 5.4 |
40.5% / 27.3% |
18.9% / 31.8% |
3.8 / 2.9 |
69 / 56 |
44.2% / 42.9% |
44.9% / 39.3% |
47.8% / 27.7% |
4.7 / 4.4 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
53.6% / 39.3% |
31.8 / 31.6 |
2 |
DAL |
42 – 17 W |
11.9 |
64.7% / 42.3% |
5.9% / 3.8% |
3.1% / 4.0% |
5.9 / 4.4 |
52.5% / 28.6% |
17.5% / 42.9% |
4.5 / 2.9 |
74 / 66 |
59.6% / 44.7% |
58.1% / 39.4% |
30.7% / 14.6% |
5.1 / 4.1 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
54.1% / 21.2% |
26.9 / 37.6 |
3 |
@BUF |
16 – 26 L |
-1.6 |
37.2% / 50.0% |
7.0% / 13.3% |
5.0% / 0.0% |
5.9 / 6.6 |
39.1% / 27.0% |
26.1% / 27.0% |
4.8 / 2.1 |
66 / 67 |
38.0% / 42.2% |
37.9% / 37.3% |
59.3% / 44.4% |
5.5 / 4.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.8% / 55.2% |
23.7 / 39.8 |
4 |
OAK |
16 – 10 W |
6.7 |
33.3% / 36.8% |
13.3% / 7.9% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
5.2 / 6.1 |
31.4% / 33.3% |
22.9% / 46.7% |
4.2 / 1.6 |
65 / 53 |
36.4% / 44.7% |
32.3% / 35.8% |
39.5% / 52.8% |
4.6 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
53.8% / 28.3% |
28.8 / 24.7 |
6 |
NYG |
10 – 23 L |
-10.4 |
35.1% / 40.9% |
7.0% / 13.6% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 5.4 |
44.4% / 18.8% |
11.1% / 40.6% |
2.6 / 4.6 |
75 / 54 |
40.0% / 27.5% |
37.3% / 27.8% |
47.0% / 53.4% |
5.5 / 4.9 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
24.0% / 59.3% |
27.0 / 31.2 |
7 |
@LAC |
0 – 21 L |
-11.1 |
35.0% / 34.5% |
12.5% / 10.3% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
4.6 / 5.6 |
21.1% / 19.2% |
21.1% / 42.3% |
3.6 / 3.1 |
59 / 55 |
32.6% / 28.6% |
30.5% / 27.3% |
13.5% / 44.6% |
4.3 / 4.4 |
3.4% / 0.0% |
32.2% / 47.3% |
23.2 / 29.8 |
8 |
@KC |
19 – 29 L |
-11.9 |
41.0% / 36.4% |
7.7% / 3.0% |
8.3% / 3.1% |
4.8 / 6.0 |
61.3% / 25.9% |
12.9% / 37.0% |
5.7 / 3.0 |
70 / 60 |
53.6% / 37.0% |
50.0% / 31.7% |
39.0% / 52.0% |
5.2 / 4.6 |
2.9% / 1.7% |
44.3% / 45.0% |
23.9 / 40.0 |
9 |
@PHI |
23 – 51 L |
-19.2 |
36.6% / 50.0% |
7.3% / 6.7% |
5.3% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 7.4 |
36.8% / 47.4% |
31.6% / 26.3% |
1.8 / 5.2 |
60 / 68 |
39.1% / 53.1% |
36.7% / 48.5% |
27.4% / 52.9% |
3.8 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
31.7% / 55.9% |
26.1 / 37.7 |
10 |
NE |
16 – 41 L |
-14.7 |
39.4% / 65.8% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
3.0% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 7.8 |
44.8% / 55.2% |
13.8% / 13.8% |
4.1 / 3.4 |
62 / 67 |
40.0% / 67.9% |
41.9% / 61.2% |
46.2% / 32.1% |
5.5 / 5.9 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
46.8% / 43.3% |
23.7 / 37.9 |