Game Analysis
Lean – Cincinnati (+7.5) over CLEVELAND
Cincinnati’s offense is underrated due to the Ryan Finley experiment at quarterback. Finley threw for just 3.9 yards per pass play in his 3 starts and under-performed his expected completion percentage by an average of 13.3 percentage points per game. Andy Dalton is gaining a pedestrian 5.7 yards per pass play but that is a huge upgrade over Finley. Tyler Boyd is averaging 1.66 yards per route run in the slot (7th) and will line up across from TJ Carrie, who has been excellent filling in at nickelback for the injured Eric Murray. Carrie has surrendered just 0.41 yards per cover snap in the slot since week 10 (2nd) but he was giving up more than 2 yards per cover snap on the outside and will likely regress moving forward. Receiver John Ross should return this week providing an additional weapon for Dalton.
Odell Beckham ranks outside the top 30 with only 1.84 yards per route run while Jarvis Landry is gaining 1.93 yards per route run in the slot (4th), but I’m expecting a role reversal on Sunday. Beckham has faced the most difficult set of opposing cornerbacks in the NFL this season but will line up across from the mediocre William Jackson this week. Landry will struggle versus nickelback Darqueze Dennard, who is conceding only 0.66 yards per cover snap in the slot since making his season debut in week 7. Kareem Hunt is averaging 5 receptions per game since joining the team in week 10 and he has a favorable matchup on Sunday as the Bengals have allowed 7.5 yards per target to opposing running backs (30th). Geno Atkins is the only player on Cincinnati’s defense with a shot at the Pro Bowl, as he ranks 7th in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders. However, Atkins will be neutralized in this game by left guard Joel Bitonio and center JC Tretter, who both have top 5 pass block win rates at their respective positions.
Our model favors the Browns by just 5.5 with a predicted total of 42.8 points. Cleveland’s passing attack is set up to have one of their better games of the season but Baker Mayfield’s thumb injury gives me pause and the model leans with Cincy. Plus, despite being 1-11 the Bengals have lost only 5 of their 12 games by more than 7 points and the Browns are a worse than average team.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.9
32.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
38.4%
49.8%
-
Sack Rate
8.1%
5.2%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
1.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
12.9%
18.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.7%
52.9%
-
NYPP
5.3
8.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.5
32.6
-
RB YPR
3.3
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
29.6%
22.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.4%
48.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.8%
46.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.5
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
63.4
64.8
-
Early Down Succ
42.1%
52.4%
-
Succ Rate
40.4%
49.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.2%
51.4%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
6.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.6%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.6
29.6
-
Run Ratio
34.0%
50.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.9
27.5
-
Game Control
-6.1
6.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.0
35.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.1%
43.3%
-
Sack Rate
7.2%
8.4%
-
Int Rate
3.5%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.2%
18.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
49.6%
44.2%
-
NYPP
6.1
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.3
26.5
-
RB YPR
4.9
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
21.6%
22.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.3%
44.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
48.3%
44.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.9
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
62.3
61.9
-
Early Down Succ
45.7%
47.8%
-
Succ Rate
42.8%
43.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
50.0%
45.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.5
28.6
-
Run Ratio
40.5%
42.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.1
28.1
-
Game Control
0.4
-0.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@SEA |
20 – 21 L |
0.8 |
46.4% /
37.5% |
8.9% /
16.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
6.7 |
21.4% /
36.0% |
35.7% /
28.0% |
2.4 /
2.9 |
70 /
49 |
42.6% /
40.0% |
41.4% /
36.7% |
49.9% /
61.4% |
6.1 /
4.8 |
4.3% /
2.0% |
20.0% /
51.0% |
27.8 /
31.0 |
| 2 |
SF |
17 – 41 L |
-16.7 |
37.0% /
65.4% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
2.4% /
3.8% |
6.3 /
12.0 |
31.6% /
64.3% |
52.6% /
9.5% |
1.3 /
6.2 |
65 /
68 |
30.4% /
68.4% |
35.4% /
64.7% |
53.2% /
63.1% |
4.9 /
8.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
29.2% /
61.8% |
25.6 /
29.6 |
| 3 |
@BUF |
17 – 21 L |
-6.7 |
44.7% /
45.9% |
5.3% /
2.7% |
5.6% /
2.8% |
6.3 /
6.5 |
36.8% /
55.6% |
31.6% /
19.4% |
3.5 /
4.9 |
57 /
73 |
46.7% /
55.2% |
42.1% /
50.7% |
52.9% /
40.6% |
5.4 /
5.7 |
3.5% /
1.4% |
33.3% /
49.3% |
30.5 /
29.6 |
| 4 |
@PIT |
3 – 27 L |
-10.4 |
24.4% /
71.0% |
17.8% /
0.0% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
2.3 /
8.4 |
57.9% /
36.0% |
21.1% /
40.0% |
3.8 /
2.6 |
64 /
56 |
36.2% /
63.6% |
34.4% /
55.4% |
21.7% /
39.9% |
2.7 /
5.8 |
1.6% /
1.8% |
29.7% /
44.6% |
30.3 /
32.9 |
| 5 |
ARI |
23 – 26 L |
-4.5 |
53.8% /
45.5% |
2.6% /
3.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
7.5 |
65.2% /
57.9% |
30.4% /
13.2% |
4.7 /
7.0 |
62 /
71 |
63.3% /
53.6% |
58.1% /
52.1% |
31.6% /
53.5% |
6.0 /
7.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.1% /
53.5% |
25.0 /
27.6 |
| 6 |
@BAL |
17 – 23 L |
-7.4 |
43.9% /
55.9% |
4.9% /
2.9% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
5.3 /
6.7 |
21.4% /
58.1% |
42.9% /
18.6% |
2.4 /
6.3 |
55 /
77 |
36.4% /
59.3% |
38.2% /
57.1% |
44.8% /
45.1% |
4.5 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
25.5% /
55.8% |
27.3 /
25.5 |
| 7 |
JAC |
17 – 27 L |
-2.4 |
37.8% /
38.2% |
4.4% /
5.9% |
7.0% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
7.2 |
30.0% /
52.3% |
50.0% /
25.0% |
1.7 /
4.9 |
65 /
78 |
34.0% /
53.4% |
35.4% /
46.2% |
53.6% /
66.7% |
4.5 /
5.9 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
30.8% /
56.4% |
29.1 /
28.6 |
| 8 |
@LA |
10 – 24 L |
-8.5 |
38.6% /
51.6% |
8.8% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
12.0 |
36.4% /
38.5% |
9.1% /
42.3% |
4.7 /
3.8 |
79 /
57 |
38.5% /
43.2% |
38.0% /
45.6% |
47.1% /
70.6% |
5.1 /
8.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
27.8% /
45.6% |
21.8 /
15.6 |
| 10 |
BAL |
13 – 49 L |
-22.7 |
40.6% /
69.6% |
6.3% /
4.3% |
3.3% /
4.5% |
4.7 /
10.6 |
62.5% /
65.2% |
30.0% /
17.4% |
3.9 /
5.9 |
72 /
46 |
56.6% /
70.3% |
52.8% /
67.4% |
29.6% /
46.4% |
4.3 /
8.2 |
2.8% /
0.0% |
55.6% /
50.0% |
31.4 /
31.1 |
| 11 |
@OAK |
10 – 17 L |
-1.9 |
22.2% /
50.0% |
13.9% /
9.4% |
3.2% /
3.4% |
2.0 /
8.5 |
59.1% /
41.2% |
9.1% /
23.5% |
7.9 /
3.3 |
58 /
66 |
39.5% /
46.8% |
36.2% /
45.5% |
58.5% /
56.7% |
4.2 /
5.8 |
1.7% /
1.5% |
37.9% /
51.5% |
26.4 /
30.7 |
| 12 |
PIT |
10 – 16 L |
-0.7 |
26.7% /
30.0% |
13.3% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
5.3 /
6.0 |
38.1% /
36.8% |
19.0% /
21.1% |
4.1 /
4.2 |
51 /
68 |
35.9% /
36.7% |
31.4% /
33.8% |
50.8% /
57.5% |
4.8 /
5.0 |
3.9% /
0.0% |
41.2% /
55.9% |
23.8 /
30.4 |
| 13 |
NYJ |
22 – 6 W |
7.8 |
44.7% /
36.5% |
2.6% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
4.0 |
36.0% /
41.2% |
24.0% /
11.8% |
1.8 /
3.6 |
63 /
69 |
45.7% /
38.8% |
41.3% /
37.7% |
0.0% /
14.8% |
4.4 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.7% /
24.6% |
36.1 /
17.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
TEN |
13 – 43 L |
-7.1 |
39.5% /
35.7% |
11.6% /
14.3% |
7.9% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
7.7 |
45.0% /
50.0% |
5.0% /
21.4% |
5.1 /
4.4 |
63 /
56 |
49.0% /
50.0% |
41.3% /
42.9% |
47.4% /
67.8% |
5.5 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.7% /
50.0% |
22.6 /
34.4 |
| 2 |
@NYJ |
23 – 3 W |
12.5 |
34.2% /
25.7% |
7.9% /
11.4% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
4.8 |
28.6% /
41.7% |
38.1% /
37.5% |
3.3 /
3.9 |
59 /
59 |
33.3% /
39.5% |
32.2% /
32.2% |
74.4% /
42.4% |
6.4 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
35.6% /
40.7% |
33.6 /
18.0 |
| 3 |
LA |
13 – 20 L |
-1.5 |
38.5% /
47.5% |
7.7% /
5.0% |
2.8% /
5.3% |
4.5 /
6.4 |
37.5% /
50.0% |
25.0% /
16.7% |
4.0 /
3.8 |
63 /
64 |
40.0% /
51.0% |
38.1% /
48.4% |
44.1% /
24.1% |
4.3 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
38.1% /
37.5% |
33.1 /
26.4 |
| 4 |
@BAL |
40 – 25 W |
7.4 |
50.0% /
52.6% |
3.1% /
10.5% |
3.2% /
5.9% |
10.5 /
5.8 |
51.7% /
58.6% |
24.1% /
13.8% |
6.7 /
6.0 |
61 /
67 |
52.2% /
59.3% |
50.8% /
55.2% |
55.3% /
39.7% |
8.7 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
47.5% /
43.3% |
26.2 /
27.8 |
| 5 |
@SF |
3 – 31 L |
-18.3 |
25.0% /
41.9% |
14.3% /
6.5% |
8.3% /
0.0% |
2.8 /
5.5 |
33.3% /
37.5% |
22.2% /
20.0% |
5.7 /
6.9 |
46 /
71 |
34.3% /
40.4% |
28.3% /
39.4% |
71.1% /
52.0% |
3.9 /
6.3 |
4.3% /
0.0% |
39.1% /
56.3% |
26.1 /
34.0 |
| 6 |
SEA |
28 – 32 L |
3.3 |
45.9% /
61.1% |
0.0% /
8.3% |
8.1% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
7.9 |
50.0% /
52.6% |
20.8% /
15.8% |
6.5 /
4.5 |
61 /
74 |
48.0% /
61.0% |
47.5% /
56.8% |
48.5% /
46.9% |
6.7 /
6.1 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
39.3% /
51.4% |
36.0 /
31.8 |
| 8 |
@NE |
13 – 27 L |
-12.1 |
38.9% /
43.6% |
13.9% /
7.7% |
3.2% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
6.1 |
59.1% /
33.3% |
22.7% /
40.7% |
7.2 /
2.9 |
58 /
66 |
53.3% /
39.6% |
46.6% /
39.4% |
59.7% /
52.8% |
5.3 /
4.8 |
3.4% /
0.0% |
37.9% /
40.9% |
25.2 /
36.2 |
| 9 |
@DEN |
19 – 24 L |
-6.2 |
45.5% /
39.1% |
4.5% /
13.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
7.6 |
37.9% /
45.0% |
20.7% /
15.0% |
3.1 /
6.4 |
73 /
43 |
44.6% /
46.9% |
42.5% /
41.9% |
38.2% /
71.9% |
4.8 /
7.0 |
0.0% /
2.3% |
39.7% /
46.5% |
34.2 /
23.4 |
| 10 |
BUF |
19 – 16 W |
2.5 |
47.5% /
42.9% |
5.0% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.5 /
6.2 |
53.8% /
40.0% |
30.8% /
15.0% |
5.7 /
4.2 |
66 /
62 |
53.8% /
46.8% |
50.0% /
41.9% |
32.1% /
42.4% |
5.6 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.4% /
32.3% |
24.8 /
24.5 |
| 11 |
PIT |
21 – 7 W |
9.7 |
30.3% /
41.7% |
3.0% /
8.3% |
0.0% /
9.1% |
5.7 /
3.7 |
37.1% /
37.5% |
31.4% /
37.5% |
3.0 /
3.6 |
68 /
64 |
33.3% /
48.0% |
33.8% /
40.6% |
54.6% /
28.8% |
4.3 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.5% /
25.0% |
41.5 /
21.8 |
| 12 |
MIA |
41 – 24 W |
16.5 |
60.0% /
37.2% |
2.9% /
9.3% |
2.9% /
5.1% |
9.1 /
4.5 |
59.4% /
40.0% |
6.3% /
15.0% |
4.6 /
4.6 |
67 /
63 |
62.1% /
38.3% |
59.7% /
38.1% |
35.3% /
25.7% |
7.0 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.8% /
31.7% |
32.2 /
28.5 |
| 13 |
@PIT |
13 – 20 L |
-1.7 |
38.5% /
50.0% |
12.8% /
4.5% |
2.9% /
4.8% |
4.4 /
9.0 |
50.0% /
46.9% |
12.5% /
18.8% |
4.4 /
3.9 |
63 /
54 |
44.9% /
52.4% |
42.9% /
48.1% |
39.1% /
54.2% |
4.4 /
6.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
38.1% /
59.3% |
26.4 /
30.8 |
Cincinnati Bengals
@ 
Cleveland Browns