Game Analysis

BUFFALO (-5.5) vs Cincinnati

Strong Opinion – Stefon Diggs (BUF) Over 6.5 Receptions (-115) to (-125)

Lean – Over (48)

· Cincinnati’s win probability increased from 46% to 88% after Sam Hubbard’s fourth quarter fumble return last week and Buffalo nearly lost to Miami’s 3rd quarterback Skylar Thompson – although the Bills did average 2.6 more yards per play than the Dolphins.

· Four of Buffalo’s five starters on the offensive line surrendered at least three pressures against New England in the last week of regular season and then Josh Allen faced a career-high 48% pressure rate in the Wild Card round. The Bills’ pass protection certainly isn’t peaking for the playoffs.

· Allen was blitzed on 52% of his dropbacks by the Dolphins and countered by throwing 13 passes with at least 20 air yards, the most by any quarterback in 2022. Buffalo outside WRs Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs each had 4 deep targets against Miami’s defense, tied for the most among all wide receivers last week. Davis and Diggs combined for 227 receiving yards.

· Bengals nickelback Mike Hilton is conceding only 1.02 yards per slot cover snap (4th) but Cincinnati’s cornerbacks are precarious on the outside with rookie Cam Taylor-Britt and Eli Apple, who ranks 61st in coverage grade by PFF out of 67 qualifiers. The reason they are in this position is because the Bengals’ best cornerback, Chidobe Awuzie, tore his ACL on Halloween. Cincinnati’s outside CBs will struggle versus Davis and Diggs on Sunday.

· Bengals edge defender Sam Hubbard had 53 pressures this season (24th) and he will line up across from RT Spencer Brown, who ranked 52nd in pass blocking efficiency out of 56 qualifying tackles. Brown surrendered 5 pressures last week, but the Bills would rather him go against Hubbard instead of edge defender Trey Hendrickson, who is a little more dangerous with 62 pressures (12th).

· Left tackle Dion Dawkins was clearly the best player on Buffalo’s offensive line in 2022. He conceded only 30 pressures and ranked 21st in pass blocking efficiency. Dawkins should be able to hold his own versus Hendrickson this week.

· Cincinnati interior defender DJ Reader has 24 pressures in the 10 weeks he’s been available this season (14th) and he will wreak havoc on the inside against LG Rodger Saffold, who surrendered 36 pressures this season (9th-most).

· The Bengals are 5th against the run by EPA since week 11 when Reader came back into the lineup. The Bills had a 44% rush success rate this season (7th) and are likely to become more efficient as Josh Allen gets more carries in the playoffs. Allen averages 7.9 rushes per game in the postseason throughout his career.

· The story of Cincinnati’s offense this week will come down to whether Joe Burrow and the skill players can transcend the offensive line. The Bengals lost RT La’el Collins in week 16, then RG Alex Cappa was sidelined in the regular season finale, and disaster struck when LT Jonah Williams suffered a dislocated kneecap last week.

· The only remaining starters on Cincinnati’s offensive line are C Ted Karras and rookie LG Cordell Volson, who ranked 43rd in pass blocking efficiency this season out of 53 qualifiers.

· Bengals backup LT Jackson Carman played the final 28 snaps last week and surrendered a sack. It was his first action as a left tackle after playing exclusively guard as a rookie. Carman didn’t play a single offensive snap in the regular season.

· Cincinnati backup RG Max Scharping ranked 43rd in pass blocking efficiency through the first half of last season before the Texans benched him. Scharping allowed a sack in relief of Cappa last week.

· Bengals backup RT Hakeem Adeniji surrendered 6 sacks last year in the playoffs and already allowed another to start this postseason.

· Buffalo’s pass rush has looked lackluster without Von Miller, ranking 18th in pressure rate since his ACL tear. Edge defender Gregory Rousseau does have 8.0 sacks in 14 games, and I expect him to get another on Sunday.

· The Bills won’t make it simple for Burrow to dump it off when the pressure comes. RB Joe Mixon gained 1.47 yards per route run this year (6th) but Buffalo’s defense allowed only 4.7 yards per target to opposing running backs (4th).

· I do think Buffalo’s secondary can be beat deep. The perception is the Bills pass defense is one of the league’s best because they conceded just a 42% success rate in 2021 (2nd), but Buffalo allowed a 46% dropback success rate this season (18th) and will be without starting safety Micah Hyde for at least another week in addition to backup safety Damar Hamlin.

· Burrow should be able to hang in there against the pass rush, take some hits, and throw it to his league-best receiving trio. Tee Higgins is averaging 0.50 EPA/target (4th), Tyler Boyd has a 62% success rate (7th), and Ja’Marr Chase is gaining 2.02 yards per route run (15th).

· Chase has led the Bengals in target share every game since his week 13 return from injury and last week he had 6 receptions for 52 yards and a touchdown on hitch routes alone. Baltimore’s defense was giving Chase the underneath routes to try to avoid getting beat deep and I expect the Bills to employ similar soft coverage. Burrow posted only a 6.3-yard average depth of target last week.

· Cincinnati has not lost by more than one score in the last 22 games with Ja’Marr Chase on the field.

· Buffalo closed -2.5 in the Monday night game canceled three weeks ago and Bengals are now without two more starting offensive linemen along with this game being in Buffalo rather than Cincinnati. It makes sense we should see this line above a field goal.

· The Bengals led the NFL with a 66% early down pass play rate in neutral situations this season and the Bills are not far behind at 62% (3rd). This total touched 50 in week 17 and it is slightly lower for this game again due to Cincinnati’s offensive line.

· Our model makes Buffalo a 7.0-point favorite with a predicted total of 51.7 points. However, the Bengals are 10-0-1 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more since the beginning of last season.