Cincinnati Bengals @

Buffalo Bills

Sun, Sep 22
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 467
Odds: Buffalo Bills -6, Total: 44

Game Analysis

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BUFFALO (-6) vs Cincinnati

The Bengals have the second-worst defense in the league by our numbers, combining a lack of talent with an inexperienced coordinator, Lou Anarumo, calling plays. Dre Kirkpatrick and William Jackson are two of the nine cornerbacks allowing more than 2 yards per cover snap and I expect Josh Allen to take some deep shots to John Brown, who is gaining 2.79 yards per route run (8th). Despite the team’s defensive struggles, Geno Atkins still leads all interior defenders in pass rushing efficiency but the middle of Buffalo’s offensive line should provide a tough test. Cincinnati is more likely to have success of the edge against tackle Cody Ford, who was pulled after surrendering 2 sacks last week. Sam Hubbard and Carlos Dunlap have combined for 3 sacks in two weeks and they should add to that total on Sunday. Aging running back Frank Gore has just 2 avoided tackles in 30 rushing attempts and the Bills ground game is likely to suffer if rookie Devin Singletary is unable to suit up due to a hamstring injury.

Cincinnati’s offensive line is terrible, giving runners an average of -0.1 yards before contact, and the Bengals have our lowest rushing grade by far. John Ross is one of six wide receivers gaining more than 3 yards per route run but the third-year player is likely to be shut down this week by Tre’Davious White, who is one of the most underrated cornerbacks in the league and conceded just 0.68 yards per cover snap in 2018 (4th). Interior defender Ed Oliver ranks 14th in pass rushing efficiency and the first rounder could exploit fellow rookie Michael Jordan on the inside.

The Bills have a solid chance to go 3-0 with favorable matchup for their home opener this week but the line came in a bit high based on our model, which favors Buffalo by 4.9 with a predicted total of 46.7. I’ll pass.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bengals
  • Bills
CIN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 51.0 25.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 41.7% 51.4%
  • Sack Rate 8.8% 8.3%
  • Int Rate 1.2% 1.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 11.9% 23.5%
  • Big Pass Yards 54.6% 68.8%
  • NYPP 6.7 9.4



Rush


  • Rush Plays 16.5 33.5
  • RB YPR 1.9 4.5
  • Stuff Rate 44.2% 18.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 26.5% 50.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 16.2% 50.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 1.9 4.5




Game

  • All Snaps 67.5 58.5
  • Early Down Succ 36.5% 54.2%
  • Succ Rate 38.4% 50.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 51.5% 62.2%
  • Yards Per Play 5.5 6.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 2.1% 1.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.1 29.0
  • Run Ratio 24.6% 56.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.7 30.3
  • Game Control -7.9 7.9
 
  • Points 18.5 31.0
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