Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (43.5) – Cincinnati (-3) at ARIZONA

Strong Opinion – Cincinnati (-3)

· Joe Burrow’s calf injury has forced him to get the ball out quickly because he doesn’t have his usual pocket mobility. Burrow has the fastest time to throw in the NFL at 2.30 seconds and Cincinnati’s offense has a league-low 10 plays of 15+ yards. However, the Bengals should get some chunk plays in this matchup.

· Arizona’s defense ranks 31st in explosive pass rate allowed as they are without Pro Bowl safety Budda Baker.

· Cardinals’ interior defender Jonathan Ledbetter ranks 25th in pass-rushing efficiency but he could also be sidelined. Arizona’s defense has the lowest pressure rate in the NFL at just 27%.

· Burrow will finally have time in the pocket to hit deep shots to Ja’Marr Chase in a favorable matchup. Cardinals’ cornerback Marco Wilson is surrendering 2.24 yards per cover snap ranking 59th of 61 qualifiers.

· Joshua Dobbs ranks around league-average against standard pass rushes, but he’s 7th in EPA/dropback versus the blitz and Cincinnati’s defense has a 36.6% blitz rate (6th-highest).

· The Bengals are surrendering a 64% success rate to tight ends (27th) which will be an issue versus a Cardinals offense targeting tight ends on 31.4% of passes (2nd-most).

· Cincinnati edge defender Trey Hendrickson has 17 pressures (12th) but he will be limited by left tackle DJ Humphries, who ranks 11th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Dobbs will have some clean pockets to look downfield for rookie WR Michael Wilson, who is one of the two receivers of the 2023 draft class to have 4 receptions on passes with at least 20 air yards. Wilson will line up across from backup cornerback DJ Turner as Bengals starting cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt is likely out with a concussion.

· Arizona’s offense has a 45% rush success rate (5th) and they will move the ball on the ground as Cincinnati’s defense ranks 26th in EPA/rush. The Bengals have missed 14 tackles (4th-most) and are allowing a 3.59-yard average depth of tackle (29th).

· Our model favors the Bengals by 2.5 points with a predicted total of 47.1 points.

The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 44 points or less.

While the model leans a bit against the Bengals, the situation is ideal for them to play their best game of the season. Arizona applies to a 46-116-5 ATS early season home team situation that is 1-6 so far this season and Cincinnati applies to a 95-34-5 ATS situation that plays on teams that lost to the spread by 25 points or more the previous week. The Bengals also apply to a 35-0-2 ATS situation that plays on teams that lost by double-digits as a road favorite in their last game.

Cincinnati is a Strong Opinion at -3 to -115 odds.