Chicago Bears @

Washington Redskins

Mon, Sep 23
5:15 PM Pacific
Rotation: 489
Odds: Washington Redskins +5, Total: 41

Game Analysis

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Chicago (-5) vs WASHINGTON

Mitch Trubisky has been a major issue for the Bears to start the season, as 29% of his passes have been deemed as uncatchable (second-worst) and he didn’t even complete a pass more than 10 yards downfield until the final drive in Denver last week. Part of that is scheme as Chicago targets running backs on a league-high 37% of passes, but Trubisky must find ways to improve his deep ball accuracy or the Bears have no shot of returning to the playoffs, regardless of a dominate defense. I expect Chicago to pound the rock against a mediocre Redskins rush defense and look to build Trubisky’s confidence with play action and roll outs.

The Redskins target running backs on 31% of passes (3rd-most), but the Bears allowed just 5.4 yards per target to opposing running backs in 2018 (5th) and I do not think they will find success versus the speed of linebackers Danny Trevathan and Roquan Smith. Chicago was also good against tight ends last year, surrendering just 5.9 yards per target (2nd), but they have allowed the 8th most yards so far this year after losing safety Adrian Amos. That gives an opportunity for Skins’ tight ends Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis to have some success in this game. Reed is expected to make his season debut on Monday night and is worth about a half point to Washington’s offense according to our metrics. Terry McLaurin leads his team, as well as all rookie pass-catchers, in target share and the rookie wide receiver hasn’t disappointed in gaining 2.49 yards per route run (12th). Right tackle Morgan Moses ranks 7th-worst in pass blocking efficiency and stands little chance of staying in front of Bears elite pass-rusher Khalil Mack.

Our model makes the Bears a 3.1-point favorite with a predicted total of 39.8. While there is a bit of line value favoring Washington, the Skins apply to a 2-30 ATS Monday night home dog situation.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bears
  • Redskins
CHI
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.5 43.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 37.4% 45.0%
  • Sack Rate 5.0% 9.1%
  • Int Rate 1.1% 1.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.8% 15.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 33.7% 39.0%
  • NYPP 4.3 5.1



Rush


  • Rush Plays 22.0 23.0
  • RB YPR 4.0 2.8
  • Stuff Rate 23.7% 30.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 44.1% 36.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 23.5% 25.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.2 2.9




Game

  • All Snaps 60.5 66.5
  • Early Down Succ 44.7% 47.4%
  • Succ Rate 40.0% 41.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.9% 36.1%
  • Yards Per Play 4.4 4.3
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.8 29.3
  • Run Ratio 37.4% 35.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 21.6 27.7
  • Game Control -0.1 0.1
 
  • Points 9.5 12.0
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