Game Analysis

WASHINGTON (-6) vs Chicago

· Justin Fields is coming off his best game of the season, averaging 7.7 yppp versus the Broncos. Fields completed 9 passes with at least 10 air yards, tying his career-high. However, the Commanders’ defense uses Quarters coverage at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL and will take away the long ball from Fields.

· Fields will be much less comfortable in the pocket on Thursday night than he was against Denver. Bears backup LT Larry Borom will struggle across from edge defender Chase Young, who ranks 9th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Commanders’ interior defender Jonathan Allen has 16 pressures (6th) and he will walk all over LG Cody Whitehair, who ranks 10th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Chicago wide receiver DJ Moore is averaging 0.73 EPA/target (9th) but he will be contained by CB Kendall Fuller, who has conceded only 41 receiving yards from 14 targets this year.

· Washington nickelback Benjamin St-Juste is conceding just 0.52 yards per cover snap in the slot (2nd) and he will shut down WR Darnell Mooney.

· Bears TE Colt Kmet is averaging 0.43 EPA/target (4th) but he will be limited in this matchup as the Commanders are allowing just a 33% success rate to tight ends (3rd).

· Fields’ best hope in this game will be getting the screen game going. Washington’s defense is surrendering a 59% pass success rate to running backs (31st) and Chicago’s offense is targeting running backs on 26.7% of passes (3rd-most).

· Sam Howell ranks 31st in EPA/dropback versus the blitz but he’s 20th against a standard pass rush and the Bears have a league-low 17.3% blitz rate.

· However, Howell is averaging 41% more yards per attempt versus man coverage than zone this season and Chicago’s defense has an 84% zone rate (6th-most).

· The Bears are allowing 0.68 EPA/target to wide receivers and running backs compared to 0.36 EPA/target to tight ends which will be helpful this week as the Commanders target tight ends on 25.2% of passes (5th-most).

· LT Charles Leno is Washington’s best offensive lineman, and he will limit Chicago edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue, who has 14 pressures (19th).

· Howell will need to utilize the vertical passing game more this week. The Bears will be missing starting safety Eddie Jackson again as well as cornerback Jaylon Johnson, who hurt his hamstring defending a pass in the second quarter of week 3. Johnson is Chicago’s only cornerback above replacement level. Jackson and Johnson are worth 1.7 points above the backups.

· Bears CB Tyrique Stevenson is surrendering 1.62 yards per cover snap (9th-worst). Stevenson and backup CB Terell Smith have no chance of holding up versus Commanders wide receivers Jahan Dotson and Terry McLaurin, who had a season-high 86 yards last week and is fully healthy after a case of turf tow limited him to start the year.

· Our model makes Washington a 7.1-point favorite, with a predicted total of 43.6 points, but I’m using Chicago in my spread pool as the Bears apply to a 55-7-1 ATS winless underdog situation. In general, winless teams (0-4 or worse) are 116-70-6 ATS as road underdogs of more than 2 points, including 75-39-4 ATS against non-division opponents, who are more likely to letdown than a division rival would.