Chicago Bears
@ 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game Analysis
Lean – Chicago (+7) over TAMPA BAY
We won our best bet on Chicago +7 last week as they almost won outright with Jordan Howard dropping a potential game-winning pass on the goal line with less than a minute remaining. Howard and Tarik Cohen lead the league’s best rushing attack in week 1 with 0.41 adjEPA/rush – almost doubling the second place team, Kansas City.
The Bears defense also looked good even without top cornerback Prince Amukamara and would’ve held last year’s highest scoring offense to 16 points if it weren’t for an 88-yard busted play on 3rd down to Atlanta tight end Austin Hooper.
The Buccaneers didn’t play in week 1 due to Hurricane Irma so they’ve had more time to prepare, as they were able to move on to this game as soon as last week’s game was cancelled.
We played Chicago over 5.5 wins as our only NFL season win total and last week’s performance validates our thinking that the Bears have entered this season underrated. The line would be 9 points based on the implied wins model, which is based on Vegas season win totals, so there isn’t as much value now as there would have been before Chicago’s good performance last week. However, we still lean with Chicago at +7 points or more.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Bears
- Buccaneers
Pass
- Pass Plays 44.0 32.0
- Succ Pass Plays 31.8% 50.0%
- Sack Rate 9.1% 6.3%
- Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
- Deep Pass Rate 2.5% 10.0%
- Big Pass Yards 12.5% 56.2%
- NYPP 4.0 9.6
Rush
- Rush Plays 19.0 25.0
- RB YPR 6.6 2.2
- Stuff Rate 15.8% 24.0%
- Succ Rush Plays 52.6% 32.0%
- Big Rush Yards 57.6% 19.7%
- Yards Per Rush 6.6 2.6
Game
- All Snaps 63.0 57.0
- Early Down Succ 37.5% 45.2%
- Succ Rate 38.1% 42.1%
- Big Yards Rate 31.2% 49.7%
- Yards Per Play 4.8 6.6
- Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
- Time Per Play (sec) 28.1 32.1
- Run Ratio 30.2% 43.9%
- Starting Field Pos 28.1 18.3
- Game Control -2.5 2.5
- Points 17.0 23.0