Game Analysis

Lean – Chicago (+4) over SAN FRANCISCO

• Matt Eberflus not using Chicago’s final timeout as they set up for the final play on Thanksgiving was the last straw and he was fired.
• Chicago’s interim head coach Thomas Brown has called the plays for the offense since week 11 and the Bears have a 73% pass-play rate (5th) and are averaging 0.08 EPA/play (13th).
• San Francisco’s defense will likely be getting back CB Deommodore Lenoir, who is conceding 1.08 yards per cover snap in the slot (9th). Lenoir and other starting CB Charvarius Ward have missed a combined 5 games. Backup CB Renardo Green is allowing 1.43 yards per cover snap (9th-worst) and the 49ers will benefit from Green not being on the field.
• Chicago’s offense is averaging 11% more yppp against Cover 4 compared to other coverages (10th) and Caleb Williams has a favorable matchup as San Francisco leads the NFL with a 24% Cover 4 rate.
• Bears starting RT Darnell Wright was carted off last week, but he surprisingly might be available on Sunday to battle with edge defender Leonard Floyd, who ranks 13th in pass-rushing efficiency. Backup right tackle Larry Borom surrendered a 22% pressure rate against the Lions.
• The 49ers’ defense will likely be without edge defender Nick Bosa, who ranks 7th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• San Francisco’s offensive line did not allow a single sack or quarterback hit and was responsible for just two quarterback hurries on 22 snaps last week without LT Trent Williams and LG Aaron Banks, but I believe it was due to the weather. Defensive linemen were slipping out of their stances and neither side could pressure the quarterback.
• I expect Brock Purdy to be under more duress this week without All-Pro left tackle Williams, who ranks 17th in pass-blocking efficiency.
• The 49ers are averaging 4.9 yards per carry (6th) but they lost running backs Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason last week and the ground game should struggle as Chicago has the 8th-ranked rush defense by our metrics.
• Kyle Shanahan’s offense is averaging 0.05 EPA/play, the worst figure for San Francisco in 6 years, and Brock Purdy doesn’t seem to have the same zip on his throws since he hurt his shoulder during the loss to Seattle.
• Our model favors the 49ers by 2.5 points with a predicted total of 41.9 points.