Game Analysis
Lean – Chicago (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH
Pittsburgh’s rush defense is not up to their usual standards with linebackers Joe Schobert and Devin Bush ranking 45th and 48th, respectively, out of 54 qualifying LBs in run stop rate. Linebacker Avery Williamson had a 10.7% run stop rate (2nd) for the Steelers last season while LB Vince Williams had an 8.7% run stop rate (13th). The Bears have a league-high 52% run play rate, which is 10 percentage points more than the second most run heavy team in the league (Cleveland).
Chicago’s offense will need to lean on the ground game as Justin Fields could be running for his life like he was last week, when he was pressured on 41% of his drop backs. Fields’ 14.1% sack rate is on pace to be the highest of any qualifying quarterback since Raiders Andrew Walter in 2006. Edge defender TJ Watt has 8.5 sacks (2nd) and it looks like Bears starting RT Germain Ifedi is on track to miss his fourth game in a row.
Khalil Mack has dealt with a foot injury for most of the season and Chicago opted to rest him last week. Bears safety Eddie Jackson suffered a hamstring injury on the second play from scrimmage versus the 49ers and did not return. Chicago’s defense surrendered 9.0 yards per play to San Francisco without Mack and Jackson on the field.
Our model favors the Steelers by 5.0 with a predicted total of 38.2 if Mack and Jackson are unable to suit up. Even in that worst case for the Bears’ defense, the value is on the side of the Bears.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
29.75
33.75
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.6%
46.7%
-
Sack Rate
12.6%
7.4%
-
Int Rate
3.8%
1.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.9%
19.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
28.5%
43.1%
-
NYPP
4.28
6.88
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.00
27.50
-
RB YPR
4.09
4.55
-
Stuff Rate
27.9%
23.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.2%
50.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
45.2%
48.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.55
4.55
Game
-
All Snaps
59.75
61.25
-
Early Down Succ
49.1%
51.2%
-
Succ Rate
44.4%
48.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
32.9%
42.8%
-
Yards Per Play
4.42
5.83
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.03
29.32
-
Run Ratio
49.8%
44.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-2.33
2.33
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.57
37.43
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.7%
49.6%
-
Sack Rate
4.9%
7.3%
-
Int Rate
1.5%
0.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.8%
17.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.4%
33.6%
-
NYPP
6.02
6.40
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.29
25.14
-
RB YPR
3.70
4.16
-
Stuff Rate
26.4%
25.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.3%
46.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.5%
51.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.69
4.22
Game
-
All Snaps
63.86
62.57
-
Early Down Succ
46.9%
52.8%
-
Succ Rate
44.1%
47.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.0%
38.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.17
5.53
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.20
29.35
-
Run Ratio
36.6%
41.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-1.23
1.23
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@LA |
14 – 34 L |
-10.93 |
55.8% /
55.6% |
7.0% /
3.7% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
4.37 /
11.56 |
61.5% /
47.8% |
26.9% /
34.8% |
5.15 /
3.22 |
69 /
50 |
66.0% /
51.4% |
58.0% /
52.0% |
18.6% /
44.3% |
4.67 /
7.72 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
37.7% /
46.0% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 2 |
CIN |
17 – 20 L |
6.62 |
25.9% /
41.2% |
11.1% /
11.8% |
4.2% /
10.0% |
3.07 /
5.26 |
41.2% /
40.0% |
32.4% /
15.0% |
3.62 /
3.45 |
61 /
54 |
34.9% /
42.1% |
34.4% /
40.7% |
28.0% /
26.8% |
3.38 /
4.59 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
55.7% /
37.0% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 3 |
@CLV |
6 – 26 L |
-5.84 |
13.8% /
47.2% |
31.0% /
13.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.03 /
5.64 |
38.5% /
42.9% |
23.1% /
21.4% |
3.54 /
5.12 |
42 /
78 |
29.6% /
45.6% |
21.4% /
44.9% |
14.0% /
43.8% |
1.12 /
5.36 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.0% /
53.8% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 4 |
DET |
24 – 14 W |
11.79 |
50.0% /
50.0% |
5.6% /
9.5% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
10.28 /
6.14 |
53.8% /
52.0% |
23.1% /
20.0% |
4.82 /
3.60 |
57 /
67 |
59.6% /
56.9% |
52.6% /
50.7% |
65.5% /
40.1% |
6.54 /
5.19 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
68.4% /
37.3% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 5 |
@LV |
20 – 9 W |
5.61 |
47.8% /
42.1% |
8.7% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
4.74 /
4.95 |
45.9% /
54.5% |
37.8% /
27.3% |
3.86 /
3.23 |
60 /
60 |
48.9% /
55.0% |
46.7% /
46.7% |
9.5% /
24.9% |
4.20 /
4.32 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
61.7% /
36.7% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 6 |
GB |
14 – 24 L |
-2.31 |
45.2% /
50.0% |
12.9% /
11.5% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
4.42 /
6.50 |
57.7% /
51.6% |
15.4% /
25.8% |
5.38 /
4.97 |
57 /
57 |
55.8% /
55.3% |
50.9% /
50.9% |
44.6% /
43.8% |
4.86 /
5.67 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.6% /
54.4% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 7 |
@TB |
3 – 38 L |
-23.96 |
50.0% /
43.6% |
11.1% /
0.0% |
9.4% /
0.0% |
4.67 /
5.79 |
51.7% /
67.7% |
31.0% /
12.9% |
4.93 /
5.87 |
65 /
70 |
60.8% /
58.9% |
50.8% /
54.3% |
41.0% /
51.2% |
4.78 /
5.83 |
3.1% /
1.4% |
44.6% /
44.3% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 8 |
SF |
22 – 33 L |
0.35 |
38.7% /
46.4% |
12.9% /
0.0% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
4.77 /
11.50 |
41.7% /
42.3% |
27.8% /
34.6% |
4.89 /
5.58 |
67 /
54 |
37.5% /
44.2% |
40.3% /
44.4% |
41.9% /
67.7% |
4.84 /
8.65 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.7% /
48.1% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@BUF |
23 – 16 W |
-2.06 |
44.1% /
44.4% |
5.9% /
5.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.21 /
4.70 |
33.3% /
48.0% |
42.9% /
16.0% |
3.57 /
4.68 |
55 /
79 |
42.9% /
47.4% |
40.0% /
45.6% |
43.0% /
22.7% |
4.58 /
4.70 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
38.2% /
31.6% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 2 |
LV |
17 – 26 L |
-3.62 |
47.6% /
59.0% |
4.8% /
5.1% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.95 /
9.56 |
35.7% /
40.0% |
35.7% /
32.0% |
2.79 /
2.08 |
56 /
64 |
48.8% /
56.3% |
44.6% /
51.6% |
43.7% /
43.3% |
5.91 /
6.64 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
25.0% /
39.1% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 3 |
CIN |
10 – 24 L |
-8.82 |
41.9% /
55.6% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
3.4% /
5.6% |
4.79 /
9.56 |
20.0% /
33.3% |
26.7% /
29.2% |
3.00 /
4.00 |
77 /
42 |
38.5% /
45.5% |
37.7% /
42.9% |
25.9% /
31.0% |
4.44 /
6.38 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
19.5% /
57.1% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 4 |
@GB |
17 – 27 L |
-6.20 |
45.2% /
48.7% |
4.8% /
7.7% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
5.24 /
6.05 |
62.5% /
57.6% |
12.5% /
21.2% |
3.88 /
3.97 |
58 /
72 |
56.8% /
52.7% |
50.0% /
52.8% |
32.7% /
43.0% |
4.86 /
5.10 |
1.7% /
1.4% |
27.6% /
45.8% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 5 |
DEN |
27 – 19 W |
8.83 |
53.8% /
47.5% |
3.8% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
9.38 /
6.70 |
45.7% /
38.9% |
20.0% /
27.8% |
4.20 /
5.89 |
61 /
58 |
47.9% /
52.5% |
49.2% /
44.8% |
51.3% /
45.7% |
6.41 /
6.45 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
57.4% /
31.0% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 6 |
SEA |
23 – 20 W |
3.85 |
43.9% /
45.9% |
2.4% /
13.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.51 /
4.46 |
53.3% /
63.0% |
23.3% /
25.9% |
3.97 /
5.33 |
71 /
64 |
51.8% /
62.0% |
47.9% /
53.1% |
22.7% /
48.4% |
4.86 /
4.83 |
1.4% /
1.6% |
42.3% /
42.2% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 8 |
@CLV |
15 – 10 W |
-0.58 |
40.5% /
51.4% |
5.4% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.89 /
6.00 |
37.5% /
33.3% |
28.1% /
29.2% |
3.59 /
4.00 |
69 /
59 |
42.0% /
53.5% |
39.1% /
44.1% |
40.2% /
35.2% |
5.36 /
5.19 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
46.4% /
40.7% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
Chicago Bears
@ 
Pittsburgh Steelers