Chicago Bears @

Philadelphia Eagles

Sun, Nov 3
10:00 AM Pacific
Odds: Philadelphia Eagles -5, Total: 42

Game Analysis

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Lean – PHILADELPHIA (-5) vs Chicago

Chicago’s rush defense ranks 2nd in the leagues so the Eagles will likely rely on the passing game, which will be greatly improved with speedster DeSean Jackson returning this week. Carson Wentz is targeting tight ends on more than a third of his passes but Zach Ertz has been disappointing gaining just 1.64 yards per route run (17th) with Jackson out most of this season. Jackson’s ability to stretch the field should open things up underneath. The Bears are below average defending tight ends and I expect Ertz to turn it around with Jackson back in the lineup. However, Wentz probably won’t have time to find Jackson downfield with left tackle Jason Peters likely to miss another game. Backup Andre Dillard is surrendering a pressure nearly every 5 pass blocking snaps and has no shot of staying in front of Khalil Mack, whose 27% pass rush win rate ranks 7th among edge rushers.

The Bears target running backs at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL but linebacker Nigel Bradham is conceding only 0.62 yards per cover snap (5th) so the Eagles should be able to defend a big part of Chicago’s offense. Fletcher Cox’s 33 pressures rank 3rd among interior defenders and the All Pro will wreak havoc on Mitch Trubisky with right guard Kyle Long out. WR Allen Robinson has added 42.3 points (10th) according to our metrics and has a favorable matchup versus Philadelphia’s weak secondary if Trubisky is able to extend plays and find him downfield.

Our model favors Philadelphia by 6.9 points with a predicted total of 41.8 points. I’ll lean slightly with the Eagles.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bears
  • Eagles


  • Pass Plays 39.1 39.6
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.0% 47.6%
  • Sack Rate 6.8% 6.7%
  • Int Rate 2.1% 1.8%
  • Deep Pass Rate 16.0% 13.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 33.7% 36.8%
  • NYPP 5.2 5.9


  • Rush Plays 23.3 24.1
  • RB YPR 3.4 3.2
  • Stuff Rate 26.0% 25.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 39.2% 43.2%
  • Big Rush Yards 18.6% 26.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.3 3.3


  • All Snaps 62.4 63.7
  • Early Down Succ 46.4% 50.4%
  • Succ Rate 43.7% 46.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 31.9% 34.4%
  • Yards Per Play 4.5 4.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 1.3%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.7 28.6
  • Run Ratio 37.0% 37.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.7 30.3
  • Game Control 1.9 -1.9
  • Points 18.3 17.4
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