Chicago Bears @

New York Jets

Sun, Nov 27
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 263
Odds: New York Jets -6.5, Total: 38

Game Analysis

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NY JETS (-6.5/-7) vs Chicago

Lean – Over (38)

· Both offenses in this game will trot out a new quarterback this week. Mike White averaged 6.9 yppp last season and I don’t believe he is a downgrade from Zach Wilson.

· I can’t imagine a better week for White to make his first start. The Bears have the least effective pass rush in the NFL with just a 22% pressure rate.

· New York’s offense will get WR Corey Davis back on the field for this game giving White another dangerous weapon. Davis is averaging 0.32 EPA/target more than WR Elijah Moore and he will take snaps away from WR Denzel Mims, who has just a 27% success rate.

· Chicago starting safety Jaquan Brisker ranks 17th in coverage grade by PFF but he is out with a concussion. The Bears also won’t have starting nickelback Kyler Gordon on the backend due to a concussion.

· Jets rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson is averaging 1.94 yards per route run in the slot. Wilson has also forced 12 missed tackles this year (4th) and he has a favorable matchup on the inside versus Chicago backup nickelback Kindle Vildor.

· New York’s ground game should also be able to support White in his first start as the Bears are surrendering a 43.6% rush success rate (25th).

· Trevor Siemian’s lack of mobility will be a problem for the Bears on offense. I think Siemian is about 5 points worse than the level that Justin Fields has been playing recently. Chicago’s offense averaged +0.093 EPA/play throughout the last five weeks (6th).

· New York’s defense is allowing a 42.4% rush success rate (19th) and I expect the Bears to go to the ground game early and often as long as this game is close.

· Jets DT Quinnen Williams leads all interior defenders in pass rushing efficiency, but it won’t be a cakewalk for him as LG Cody Whitehair is Chicago’s only starting offensive linemen to not have allowed a sack this season.

· Our model favors the Jets by 6.2 with a predicted total of 39.6 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bears
  • Jets
CHI
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 0.00 0.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • NYPP 0.00 0.00



Rush


  • Rush Plays 0.00 0.00
  • RB YPR 0.00 0.00
  • Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 0.00 0.00




Game

  • All Snaps 0.00 0.00
  • Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 0.00 0.00
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 0.00 0.00
  • Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
 
  • Points 0.00 0.00
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