Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Chicago (+3) over MINNESOTA

• The Bears rank 4th in pass blocking efficiency, and they will limit the Vikings’ defense that is leading the NFL with a 44% pressure rate.
• Minnesota interior defenders Javon Hargrave and Jalen Redmond have combined for 43 pressures, but Chicago’s interior offensive line is at fault for only 37% of the allowed pressures (4th). Bears four-time All-Pro guard Joe Thuney has allowed pressure on 1.9% of pass plays this season, tying for the best rate of his career.
• Vikings Jonathan Greenard has 36 pressures (15th), but he is likely out this week. Greenard is worth half a point.
• Minnesota’s defense gets its pressure with a league-high 60% blitz rate, but it won’t work against the Bears, who are averaging 14% more yards per attempt against the blitz compared to a standard pass rush (3rd).
• Chicago head coach Ben Johnson’s offense is better against middle-field open coverages due to his ability to exploit lighter boxes and attack underneath zones. The Bears rank 5th relatively versus middle-field open coverages compared to middle-field closed, and Caleb Williams has a favorable matchup as the Vikings lead the NFL with a 69% middle-field open coverage rate.
• JJ McCarthy has not performed as well as the Vikings hoped he would this season, with just a 35% success rate outside of scripted plays. McCarthy is averaging only 5.0 yppp compared to Williams’ 6.7 yppp. Chicago has the decided advantage at quarterback this week.
• The Bears’ defense will again be without linebacker TJ Edwads, but they have improved since signing new primary slot defender CJ Gardner-Johnson, who had 2 sacks last game while leading the team in tackles. Gardner-Johnson is also conceding just 0.69 yards per cover snap in the slot.
• Our model makes Chicago a 1.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 47.9. There is a negative 55-107-5 ATS statistical indicator that applies to the Bears based on their extremely positive turnover margin and that will keep us from making Chicago a Best Bet even though the model accounts for turnover luck.

Chicago is a Strong Opinion at +3 -115 odds or better.