Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Chicago (+3 -105) over MINNESOTA

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (45)

· Justin Jefferson is out again for Monday night as the Vikings will rest him before the bye in week 13. Jefferson has a 58% success rate (14th) and is worth 1.9 points by our numbers.

· Chicago’s defense will be able to limit Joshua Dobbs’ remaining receivers without Jefferson on the field. Minnesota WR Jordan Addison is averaging 0.45 EPA/target (12th) but he will be limited by Bears CB Jaylon Johnson, who is allowing just 0.48 yards per cover snap (3rd).

· Chicago linebacker Tremaine Edmunds returned to the lineup for the first time since week 8 when he injured his knee and he will contain tight end TJ Hockenson, who is averaging 0.24 EPA/target (8th). Edmunds is conceding 1.7 yards per target fewer than backup LB Jack Sanborn.

· Dobbs has added a new dimension to the Vikings offense as they are averaging 148.7 rushing yards per game in his starts (5th) but Minnesota’s ground game will be contained this week as the Bears defense is allowing -0.18 EPA/rush (4th).

· Chicago’s offense has a 42.8% rush success rate (7th) but they will struggle versus a Vikings defense allowing -0.15 EPA/rush (6th).

· Bears TE Cole Kmet has a 67% success rate (2nd) and he will be the top outlet for Justin Fields in this favorable matchup. Minnesota’s defense is surrendering 0.31 EPA/target to tight ends (29th).

· Our model favors the Vikings by just 0.9 points, with a predicted total of 40.7 points, and Chicago applies to a 61-17 ATS situation.

Chicago is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 to -115 odds and the Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 44 or higher.