Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *Chicago (+5) over MINNESOTA

Chicago’s offense is averaging 20.3 points when Andy Dalton takes more than half the snaps under center and 16.8 points per game during Justin Fields’ ten starts. Dalton is better for the Bears to win right now, and he will get help from the ground game as the Vikings rush defense ranks 27th. The major difference between the veteran Dalton and the rookie Fields is how quickly they make decisions. Dalton gets the ball out a half second quicker than Fields on average and has been pressured on 26.5% of his dropbacks while Fields was pressured on 42.8% of dropbacks. Fields make the Bears’ offensive line look worse than it actually is.

Vikings’ rookie LT Christian Darrisaw has surrendered 5 sacks in nine starts and he will not be able to block edge defender Robert Quinn, who ranks 10th in pass rushing efficiency. Kirk Cousins will not have time in the pocket, and we know Chicago’s defensive coordinator Sean Desai will have a good plan for taking away top receiver Justin Jefferson as the Pro Bowl WR was limited to only 4.7 yards per target when the Bears were missing half their secondary against Minnesota in week 15.

Our model favors the Vikings by just 2.0 points, with a predicted total of 45.4 points, and Chicago applies to a 73-24-3 ATS division road dog revenge situation and a 115-50-6 ATS late season contrary situation that plays on the team with the worse record. Chicago is a 1-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bears
Vikings

CHI

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 34.13 31.19
Succ Pass Plays 40.5% 44.9%
Sack Rate 9.5% 8.8%
Int Rate 3.6% 1.8%
Deep Pass Rate 17.5% 17.3%
Big Pass Yards 34.4% 39.2%
NYPP 5.38 6.06

Rush

Rush Plays 28.13 28.81
RB YPR 3.85 4.31
Stuff Rate 27.3% 23.9%
Succ Rush Plays 48.7% 49.2%
Big Rush Yards 42.4% 43.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.28 4.39

Game

All Snaps 62.25 60.00
Early Down Succ 48.7% 51.1%
Succ Rate 44.2% 47.0%
Big Yards Rate 37.4% 41.0%
Yards Per Play 4.88 5.26
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.73 30.06
Run Ratio 45.2% 48.0%
Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
Game Control -2.45 2.45

Points 18.19 23.69

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@LA	14 – 34 L	-10.93	55.8% / 55.6%	7.0% / 3.7%	2.5% / 0.0%	4.37 / 11.56	61.5% / 47.8%	26.9% / 34.8%	5.15 / 3.22	69 / 50	66.0% / 51.4%	58.0% / 52.0%	18.6% / 44.3%	4.67 / 7.72	1.4% / 0.0%	37.7% / 46.0%	28.38 / 32.44
2	CIN	17 – 20 L	6.62	25.9% / 41.2%	11.1% / 11.8%	4.2% / 10.0%	3.07 / 5.26	41.2% / 40.0%	32.4% / 15.0%	3.62 / 3.45	61 / 54	34.9% / 42.1%	34.4% / 40.7%	28.0% / 26.8%	3.38 / 4.59	0.0% / 1.9%	55.7% / 37.0%	39.70 / 26.64
3	@CLV	6 – 26 L	-5.84	13.8% / 47.2%	31.0% / 13.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	0.03 / 5.64	38.5% / 42.9%	23.1% / 21.4%	3.54 / 5.12	42 / 78	29.6% / 45.6%	21.4% / 44.9%	14.0% / 43.8%	1.12 / 5.36	0.0% / 0.0%	31.0% / 53.8%	26.09 / 33.55
4	DET	24 – 14 W	11.79	50.0% / 50.0%	5.6% / 9.5%	5.9% / 0.0%	10.28 / 6.14	53.8% / 52.0%	23.1% / 20.0%	4.82 / 3.60	57 / 67	59.6% / 56.9%	52.6% / 50.7%	65.5% / 40.1%	6.54 / 5.19	0.0% / 3.0%	68.4% / 37.3%	16.40 / 32.44
5	@LV	20 – 9 W	5.61	47.8% / 42.1%	8.7% / 7.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	4.74 / 4.95	45.9% / 54.5%	37.8% / 27.3%	3.86 / 3.23	60 / 60	48.9% / 55.0%	46.7% / 46.7%	9.5% / 24.9%	4.20 / 4.32	0.0% / 0.0%	61.7% / 36.7%	29.40 / 21.60
6	GB	14 – 24 L	-2.31	45.2% / 50.0%	12.9% / 11.5%	3.7% / 0.0%	4.42 / 6.50	57.7% / 51.6%	15.4% / 25.8%	5.38 / 4.97	57 / 57	55.8% / 55.3%	50.9% / 50.9%	44.6% / 43.8%	4.86 / 5.67	0.0% / 0.0%	45.6% / 54.4%	26.38 / 29.33
7	@TB	3 – 38 L	-23.96	50.0% / 43.6%	11.1% / 0.0%	9.4% / 0.0%	4.67 / 5.79	51.7% / 67.7%	31.0% / 12.9%	4.93 / 5.87	65 / 70	60.8% / 58.9%	50.8% / 54.3%	41.0% / 51.2%	4.78 / 5.83	3.1% / 1.4%	44.6% / 44.3%	23.69 / 43.58
8	SF	22 – 33 L	0.35	38.7% / 46.4%	12.9% / 0.0%	3.7% / 0.0%	4.77 / 11.50	41.7% / 42.3%	27.8% / 34.6%	4.89 / 5.58	67 / 54	37.5% / 44.2%	40.3% / 44.4%	41.9% / 67.7%	4.84 / 8.65	0.0% / 0.0%	53.7% / 48.1%	27.50 / 32.56
9	@PIT	27 – 29 L	-8.59	40.6% / 38.2%	9.4% / 11.8%	3.4% / 0.0%	8.69 / 5.15	50.0% / 43.8%	7.7% / 34.4%	5.23 / 3.28	58 / 66	50.0% / 43.2%	44.8% / 40.9%	56.4% / 47.4%	7.14 / 4.24	1.7% / 0.0%	44.8% / 48.5%	22.64 / 32.17
11	BLT	13 – 16 L	-0.47	32.4% / 40.5%	8.1% / 14.3%	0.0% / 2.8%	7.05 / 4.19	50.0% / 55.9%	25.0% / 17.6%	4.60 / 3.62	57 / 76	45.0% / 50.0%	38.6% / 47.4%	69.9% / 23.1%	6.19 / 3.93	1.8% / 0.0%	35.1% / 44.7%	22.25 / 30.91
12	@DET	16 – 14 W	-0.63	50.0% / 50.0%	2.5% / 3.8%	2.6% / 0.0%	7.75 / 6.27	34.5% / 47.4%	41.4% / 31.6%	2.34 / 4.00	69 / 45	45.5% / 52.9%	43.5% / 48.9%	25.2% / 27.9%	5.48 / 5.31	0.0% / 2.2%	42.0% / 42.2%	29.40 / 23.22
13	ARZ	22 – 33 L	-11.47	40.0% / 53.3%	8.9% / 0.0%	9.8% / 0.0%	4.76 / 8.20	55.6% / 48.6%	22.2% / 31.4%	4.04 / 3.91	72 / 50	46.9% / 51.4%	45.8% / 50.0%	28.1% / 37.7%	4.49 / 5.20	0.0% / 0.0%	37.5% / 70.0%	25.50 / 48.60
14	@GB	30 – 45 L	-2.44	28.6% / 62.5%	5.7% / 7.5%	6.1% / 0.0%	6.00 / 8.00	47.8% / 58.3%	13.0% / 20.8%	5.96 / 4.96	58 / 64	38.1% / 68.0%	36.2% / 60.9%	52.6% / 43.5%	5.98 / 6.86	1.7% / 0.0%	39.7% / 37.5%	30.25 / 30.73
15	MIN	9 – 17 L	-8.87	45.2% / 32.1%	7.1% / 14.3%	0.0% / 4.2%	6.07 / 2.18	42.9% / 36.4%	39.3% / 27.3%	4.11 / 4.00	70 / 61	52.9% / 39.0%	44.3% / 34.4%	28.3% / 22.8%	5.29 / 3.16	4.3% / 0.0%	40.0% / 54.1%	32.91 / 27.92
16	@SEA	25 – 24 W	-6.27	46.2% / 37.9%	10.3% / 6.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.87 / 5.55	50.0% / 50.0%	40.0% / 8.3%	2.93 / 7.08	69 / 53	52.1% / 47.6%	47.8% / 43.4%	21.6% / 54.1%	4.59 / 6.25	0.0% / 0.0%	43.5% / 45.3%	33.09 / 30.40
17	NYG	29 – 3 W	18.24	31.6% / 13.3%	5.3% / 26.7%	5.6% / 18.2%	4.26 / -0.67	55.6% / 50.0%	18.5% / 20.0%	3.22 / 4.03	65 / 55	42.2% / 51.2%	41.5% / 40.0%	12.7% / 12.4%	3.83 / 2.75	0.0% / 3.6%	41.5% / 72.7%	0.00 / 0.00

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CIN	24 – 27 L	-3.43	43.4% / 46.9%	5.7% / 15.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.34 / 6.78	36.4% / 52.8%	45.5% / 25.0%	3.05 / 4.14	75 / 68	41.1% / 60.4%	41.3% / 50.0%	37.3% / 40.0%	5.37 / 5.38	1.3% / 0.0%	29.3% / 52.9%	24.62 / 27.23
2	@ARZ	33 – 34 L	3.69	51.5% / 56.4%	3.0% / 7.7%	0.0% / 5.6%	7.33 / 9.51	51.9% / 66.7%	33.3% / 19.0%	6.56 / 4.90	60 / 60	58.0% / 66.7%	51.7% / 60.0%	43.7% / 44.9%	6.98 / 7.90	0.0% / 0.0%	45.0% / 35.0%	21.82 / 27.17
3	SEA	30 – 17 W	2.14	69.2% / 55.9%	2.6% / 5.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.03 / 8.32	47.1% / 55.6%	23.5% / 11.1%	4.12 / 5.89	73 / 52	57.6% / 63.4%	58.9% / 55.8%	36.1% / 39.6%	6.21 / 7.48	0.0% / 0.0%	46.6% / 34.6%	24.63 / 21.78
4	CLV	7 – 14 L	0.13	35.0% / 33.3%	5.0% / 8.3%	2.6% / 0.0%	4.75 / 3.97	34.8% / 47.4%	39.1% / 10.5%	2.83 / 4.84	63 / 74	37.2% / 42.6%	34.9% / 40.5%	47.4% / 34.2%	4.05 / 4.42	0.0% / 0.0%	36.5% / 51.4%	21.58 / 28.36
5	DET	19 – 17 W	4.04	47.2% / 41.0%	5.6% / 10.3%	2.9% / 2.9%	7.33 / 4.62	35.7% / 54.2%	35.7% / 25.0%	4.29 / 4.50	64 / 63	44.9% / 53.1%	42.2% / 46.0%	35.2% / 25.1%	6.00 / 4.57	1.6% / 1.6%	43.8% / 38.1%	25.58 / 30.55
6	@CAR	34 – 28 W	3.18	54.2% / 28.9%	0.0% / 8.9%	0.0% / 2.4%	7.77 / 4.18	44.4% / 65.2%	27.8% / 17.4%	5.50 / 5.13	84 / 68	51.5% / 48.0%	50.0% / 41.2%	56.9% / 40.0%	6.80 / 4.50	1.2% / 2.9%	42.9% / 33.8%	31.31 / 29.93
8	DAL	16 – 20 L	3.37	27.0% / 40.9%	2.7% / 6.8%	0.0% / 2.4%	4.78 / 7.75	37.5% / 41.7%	33.3% / 8.3%	4.21 / 3.25	61 / 68	37.0% / 39.6%	31.1% / 41.2%	45.6% / 43.4%	4.56 / 6.16	0.0% / 1.5%	39.3% / 35.3%	29.83 / 20.91
9	@BLT	34 – 31 W	5.83	39.3% / 52.3%	0.0% / 6.8%	0.0% / 4.9%	6.68 / 5.75	41.7% / 68.9%	54.2% / 2.2%	5.46 / 5.49	52 / 89	38.9% / 65.2%	40.4% / 60.7%	67.0% / 28.8%	6.12 / 5.62	0.0% / 0.0%	46.2% / 50.6%	29.80 / 23.00
10	@LAC	27 – 20 W	2.14	46.2% / 44.4%	5.1% / 5.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.13 / 4.75	57.6% / 57.9%	27.3% / 10.5%	3.12 / 4.32	72 / 55	54.5% / 52.4%	51.4% / 49.1%	36.0% / 23.5%	5.29 / 4.60	1.4% / 0.0%	45.8% / 34.5%	34.09 / 23.90
11	GB	34 – 31 W	5.00	59.5% / 62.9%	5.4% / 5.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.59 / 10.63	51.7% / 57.9%	31.0% / 15.8%	3.10 / 5.00	66 / 54	52.8% / 61.9%	56.1% / 61.1%	45.0% / 50.4%	6.18 / 8.65	0.0% / 0.0%	43.9% / 35.2%	22.67 / 24.11
12	@SF	26 – 34 L	-1.80	50.0% / 39.3%	2.9% / 7.1%	3.0% / 3.8%	7.53 / 7.68	33.3% / 59.0%	16.7% / 23.1%	3.72 / 5.33	52 / 67	50.0% / 52.7%	44.2% / 50.7%	47.4% / 58.0%	6.21 / 6.31	1.9% / 0.0%	34.6% / 58.2%	26.36 / 35.92
13	@DET	27 – 29 L	-4.06	47.7% / 54.5%	6.8% / 6.8%	0.0% / 2.4%	7.41 / 6.18	63.0% / 55.6%	18.5% / 25.9%	3.70 / 3.70	71 / 71	58.2% / 63.2%	53.5% / 54.9%	28.2% / 37.4%	6.00 / 5.24	1.4% / 1.4%	38.0% / 38.0%	36.33 / 26.58
14	PIT	36 – 28 W	13.54	32.3% / 44.4%	0.0% / 11.1%	6.5% / 2.5%	6.97 / 5.98	58.3% / 62.5%	22.2% / 20.8%	6.72 / 4.42	67 / 69	48.1% / 55.8%	46.3% / 50.7%	50.9% / 43.7%	6.84 / 5.43	0.0% / 0.0%	53.7% / 34.8%	35.08 / 29.93
15	@CHI	17 – 9 W	8.87	32.1% / 45.2%	14.3% / 7.1%	4.2% / 0.0%	2.18 / 6.07	36.4% / 42.9%	27.3% / 39.3%	4.00 / 4.11	61 / 70	39.0% / 52.9%	34.4% / 44.3%	22.8% / 28.3%	3.16 / 5.29	0.0% / 4.3%	54.1% / 40.0%	27.92 / 32.91
16	LA	23 – 30 L	-7.00	51.2% / 45.9%	7.3% / 0.0%	2.6% / 8.1%	7.20 / 5.32	40.9% / 63.6%	36.4% / 18.2%	3.00 / 4.82	63 / 70	57.4% / 54.5%	47.6% / 54.3%	37.5% / 28.4%	5.73 / 5.09	0.0% / 0.0%	34.9% / 47.1%	35.17 / 25.18
17	@GB	10 – 37 L	-13.96	31.7% / 61.9%	4.9% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.37 / 7.31	27.3% / 62.5%	27.3% / 12.5%	2.45 / 5.44	52 / 74	37.1% / 65.0%	30.8% / 62.2%	28.1% / 26.2%	3.96 / 6.50	0.0% / 0.0%	21.2% / 43.2%	0.00 / 0.00

Chicago Bears @

Minnesota Vikings

Sun, Jan 9

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis