Game Analysis

Lean – LA CHARGERS (-8.5) over Chicago

Lean – Under (46.5)

· The Bears beat the Raiders by 18 in Tyson Bagent’s first start but I was not impressed by the undrafted rookie. Bagent had just a 2.1-yard average depth of target, which is the shortest of any quarterback this season. Bagent is averaging only 5.1 yppp and he has not proven he can beat a defense that doesn’t just give him the wide-open checkdown.

· Chicago wide receiver DJ Moore is averaging 0.66 EPA/target (6th) and he has 9 deep receptions this season (2nd), but Moore did not even get a target on a pass with 20+ air yards last week with Bagent under center.

· Bears rookie RT Darnell Wright is dealing with a shoulder injury, and he surrendered a sack last week against Maxx Crosby. Wright will get some snaps lined up across from Chargers edge defender Tuli Tuipulotu, who ranks 18th in pass-rushing efficiency. Also, edge rusher Joey Bosa got more than half the snaps last week after being limited in the previous few games due to a hamstring injury.

· Chicago backup LT Larry Borom ranks 5th-worst in pass blocking efficiency out of 58 qualifying tackles but it looks like starter Braxton Jones will suit up this week to battle against edge defender Khalil Mack, whose 28 pressures rank 14th.

· The Bears are allowing just a 27.9% rush success rate the last three weeks (3rd) and RB Austin Ekeler may have to do his damage as a receiver out of the backfield as Chicago’s defense is surrendering a 53% pass success rate to running backs (30th).

· Justin Herbert is averaging only 5.9 yppp in the last three games without starting C Corey Linsley and WR Mike Williams.

· Los Angeles backup center Will Clapp has been allowing a league-high 8.0% pressure rate since week 4, and Chargers’ backup wide receiver Joshua Palmer is averaging 0.48 EPA/target fewer than Mike Williams.

· Los Angeles WR Keenan Allen is averaging 0.55 EPA/target (8th) but Chicago starting nickelback Kyler Gordon is allowing 0.78 yards per slot cover snap fewer than backup Greg Stroman did in weeks 2 through 6.

· Our model favors the Chargers by 10.5 points, with a predicted total of 44.0 points.