Chicago Bears @

Las Vegas Raiders

Sun, Oct 10
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 469
Odds: Las Vegas Raiders -5.5, Total: 44

Game Analysis

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Lean – Chicago (+5.5) over LAS VEGAS

Las Vegas started last Monday’s game with three straight three-and-outs and had zero yards in the first half with a struggling offensive line. Rookie RT Alex Leatherwood could not hold up across from Joey Bosa as the Pro Bowl edge defender finished with 7 pressures including a strip sack. Leatherwood will struggle again on Sunday across from another Pro Bowl edge defender Khalil Mack, who already has 4 sacks on the year (10th).

Bears’ interior defender Akiem Hicks ranked 15th in pass rushing efficiency last year but may be unavailable this week. Hicks is worth 0.8 points according to our metrics.

Derek Carr loves to look for TE Darren Waller, who has 274 receiving yards which ranks 2nd among tight ends. The Bears are only conceding 6.3 yards per target to opposing TEs so Carr may have to shift his attention to slot receiver Hunter Renfrow, who is averaging 2.16 yards per route run on inside (8th). Chicago’s Duke Shelley is allowing 1.43 yards per cover snap in the slot which ranks 20th out of 24 qualifying nickelbacks.

The Bears ground game ranks 9th according to our metrics and shouldn’t be noticeably worse without RB David Montgomery (out with sprained knee). Backup running back Damien Williams is averaging 0.25 avoided tackles per carry compared to Montgomery’s 0.22 missed tackles forced per rush. I expect Williams to gash the Raiders 26th-rated rush defense.

Justin Fields will be under center again this week. Chicago WR Allen Robinson is averaging only 1.32 yards per route run after finishing last year at 2.16 yards per route run (12th). This could be Robinson’s breakout week as Las Vegas CBs Trayvon Mullen (foot) and Damon Arnette (groin) are both potentially out. Meanwhile, Raiders CB Casey Hayward leads the league conceding a reception on only one out of every 36.1 cover snap and will shut down Bears WR Darnell Mooney, who had 125 receiving yards last week.

Our model makes Las Vegas a 5.0-point favorite, with a predicted total of 45.8 points, and the Raiders apply to a negative 45-107-4 ATS early season situation.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bears
  • Raiders
CHI
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 29.3 34.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 36.4% 48.5%
  • Sack Rate 13.7% 9.7%
  • Int Rate 3.1% 2.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 13.6% 22.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 25.1% 39.4%
  • NYPP 5.8 8.0



Rush


  • Rush Plays 28.0 27.5
  • RB YPR 3.9 3.9
  • Stuff Rate 26.4% 22.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 48.8% 45.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 41.9% 27.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.3 3.8




Game

  • All Snaps 57.3 62.3
  • Early Down Succ 47.5% 49.0%
  • Succ Rate 41.6% 47.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 31.5% 38.8%
  • Yards Per Play 4.7 6.2
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 1.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.0 30.0
  • Run Ratio 48.2% 43.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control 0.4 -0.4
 
  • Points 15.3 23.5
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