Chicago Bears @

Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, Dec 27
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 467
Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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Chicago (-7.5) vs JACKSONVILLE

Mitch Trubisky has averaged 7.3 yards per pass play the last three weeks, albeit against the Lions, Texans, and Vikings. Trubisky will face another soft secondary on Sunday as the Jaguars are surrendering 7.8 yppp, the worst mark in the NFL during the past two seasons. To make matters worse, two of Jacksonville’s remaining top defenders aren’t playing well with linebackers Joe Schobert and Myles Jack combining to allow 152 receiving yards and two touchdowns last week. Nine of David Montgomery’s season-high 30 rushing attempts went for first downs or touchdowns last week for the Bears and he won’t face much resistance against a Jaguars rush defense ranked last by our numbers.

Gardner Minshew and Mike Glennon will both take reps and compete to start at quarterback this week. Interior defender Bilal Nichols and Akiem Hicks rank 12th and 13th respectively in pass rushing efficiency but guards Andrew Norwell and AJ Cann have conceded just 32 pressures combined this season and have been some of the bright spots on Jacksonville’s offense. However, RT Jawaan Taylor ranks 55th out of 57 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency and he has no chance of staying in front of Khalil Mack on Sunday.

Our model favors the Bears by 9.1 points, with a predicted total of 45.9 points, but while the model leans with Chicago the situation favor Jacksonville. The Jaguars apply to an 86-35-4 ATS late season home underdog situation while the Bears apply to a negative 32-70-5 ATS last road game angle. The record is 30-2-3 ATS for the home underdog when those two angles apply to the same game. I’ll probably use Jacksonville in my pool.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bears
  • Jaguars
CHI
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 40.7 37.1
  • Succ Pass Plays 48.3% 45.3%
  • Sack Rate 6.0% 6.5%
  • Int Rate 2.7% 1.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.8% 15.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 30.5% 41.7%
  • NYPP 5.6 6.3



Rush


  • Rush Plays 23.5 28.8
  • RB YPR 4.2 4.1
  • Stuff Rate 21.1% 20.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 44.7% 43.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 34.4% 47.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.1 4.2




Game

  • All Snaps 64.2 65.9
  • Early Down Succ 51.1% 46.3%
  • Succ Rate 47.3% 44.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 33.8% 44.2%
  • Yards Per Play 5.0 5.3
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.1 27.9
  • Run Ratio 36.6% 43.7%
  • Starting Field Pos 30.1 28.7
  • Game Control -1.1 1.1
 
  • Points 22.5 22.7
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