Game Analysis
GREEN BAY (-8) vs Chicago
Mitch Trubisky will be back under center on Sunday night his 5.4 yards per pass play this season is actually higher than Nick Foles’ 5.2 yppp. Thus, there is no adjustment for the change at quarterback. Packers’ elite CB Jaire Alexander held Adam Thielen, Calvin Ridley, Mike Evans, and Will Fuller to a combined 5.5 yards per target in shadow coverage so far this season and I’m expecting Alexander to shut down Allen Robinson on Sunday night.
With all the focus on Davante Adams, Allen Lazard has a chance to exploit Chicago’s defense in the slot. Lazard is averaging 13.0 yards per target this season but has only played in 4 games. Buster Skrine is surrendering 1.51 yards per slot cover snap, which ranks 22nd out of 27 qualifying nicklebacks and he is currently being hampered by an ankle injury. Rodgers will need to utilize Lazard on underneath routes because Chicago’s defense is conceding just 5 yards per target to opposing RBs and Roquan Smith will likely limit Aaron Jones from catching passes out of the backfield. Interior defender Akiem Hicks ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency but he didn’t practice all week and remains questionable for Sunday night’s game. Packers center Corey Linsley has allowed a league-low 2 pressures all season and he will help contain Hicks if the interior defender is cleared to play.
Our model favors the Packers by 8.3 points, with a predicted total of 46.7 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.7
37.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.4%
41.6%
-
Sack Rate
5.9%
5.9%
-
Int Rate
2.9%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.4%
15.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.7%
42.3%
-
NYPP
5.2
6.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.7
28.7
-
RB YPR
3.3
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
22.0%
21.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.7%
41.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
27.1%
50.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.4
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
64.4
65.8
-
Early Down Succ
47.1%
43.0%
-
Succ Rate
43.2%
40.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
33.9%
45.0%
-
Yards Per Play
4.6
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.2
27.9
-
Run Ratio
33.7%
43.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.7
29.6
-
Game Control
-3.1
3.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.4
34.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
53.3%
50.7%
-
Sack Rate
3.3%
6.0%
-
Int Rate
1.1%
1.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.6%
15.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
47.3%
33.7%
-
NYPP
7.7
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.5
25.6
-
RB YPR
4.2
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
21.0%
18.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.1%
51.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
34.3%
37.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
62.9
59.7
-
Early Down Succ
55.1%
53.8%
-
Succ Rate
52.4%
51.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.1%
36.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.0
27.8
-
Run Ratio
42.0%
43.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.8
28.7
-
Game Control
4.3
-4.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DET |
27 – 23 W |
-5.9 |
45.9% /
51.2% |
2.7% /
2.3% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
5.8 /
6.7 |
60.7% /
44.8% |
14.3% /
13.8% |
5.3 /
4.8 |
65 /
72 |
59.6% /
52.7% |
52.3% /
48.6% |
35.8% /
50.2% |
5.6 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
40.3% |
29.0 /
27.0 |
| 2 |
NYG |
17 – 13 W |
9.1 |
46.9% /
43.2% |
12.5% /
9.1% |
7.1% /
2.5% |
5.3 /
5.0 |
40.6% /
50.0% |
18.8% /
22.2% |
4.2 /
4.2 |
64 /
62 |
38.3% /
50.0% |
43.8% /
45.2% |
30.9% /
32.5% |
4.8 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
50.0% /
29.0% |
29.1 /
29.2 |
| 3 |
@ATL |
30 – 26 W |
-8.6 |
45.3% /
40.0% |
3.8% /
5.0% |
3.9% /
2.6% |
5.8 /
5.7 |
56.0% /
44.0% |
24.0% /
12.0% |
5.2 /
5.8 |
78 /
65 |
55.9% /
45.1% |
48.7% /
41.5% |
51.9% /
53.1% |
5.6 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.1% /
38.5% |
32.8 /
29.9 |
| 4 |
IND |
11 – 19 L |
-8.5 |
46.5% /
40.0% |
2.3% /
3.3% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
6.2 |
31.3% /
28.9% |
18.8% /
26.3% |
1.8 /
2.7 |
59 /
68 |
47.7% /
30.4% |
42.4% /
33.8% |
39.8% /
39.8% |
4.6 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
27.1% /
55.9% |
20.5 /
31.7 |
| 5 |
TB |
20 – 19 W |
-3.6 |
46.7% /
29.5% |
6.7% /
6.8% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
4.6 /
5.3 |
28.6% /
55.0% |
7.1% /
15.0% |
2.5 /
5.3 |
59 /
64 |
45.8% /
40.4% |
42.4% /
37.5% |
20.2% /
40.1% |
4.1 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
23.7% /
31.3% |
35.0 /
27.3 |
| 6 |
@CAR |
23 – 16 W |
6.6 |
46.2% /
27.3% |
0.0% /
12.1% |
2.6% /
6.9% |
5.1 /
5.8 |
36.0% /
41.4% |
24.0% /
20.7% |
2.5 /
3.9 |
64 /
62 |
42.6% /
36.2% |
42.2% /
33.9% |
17.6% /
60.4% |
4.1 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
39.1% /
46.8% |
43.8 /
18.0 |
| 7 |
@LA |
10 – 24 L |
-9.2 |
40.9% /
52.9% |
9.1% /
2.9% |
5.0% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
6.2 |
29.4% /
44.1% |
17.6% /
29.4% |
2.9 /
4.7 |
61 /
68 |
41.9% /
54.7% |
37.7% /
48.5% |
32.6% /
41.2% |
4.6 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
27.9% /
50.0% |
16.3 /
34.4 |
| 8 |
NO |
23 – 26 L |
-0.8 |
43.5% /
42.9% |
10.9% /
2.4% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
5.1 /
6.5 |
47.8% /
40.0% |
30.4% /
20.0% |
4.2 /
4.1 |
69 /
72 |
47.1% /
47.3% |
44.9% /
41.7% |
42.6% /
36.0% |
4.8 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
41.7% |
26.8 /
35.5 |
| 9 |
@TEN |
17 – 24 L |
-8.7 |
45.5% /
37.5% |
5.5% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
5.7 |
25.0% /
32.3% |
30.0% /
25.8% |
2.8 /
3.0 |
75 /
55 |
44.6% /
34.2% |
40.0% /
34.5% |
37.6% /
58.8% |
5.0 /
4.1 |
2.7% /
0.0% |
26.7% /
56.4% |
29.2 /
28.9 |
| 10 |
MIN |
13 – 19 L |
-1.9 |
36.4% /
51.4% |
6.1% /
2.7% |
3.2% /
2.8% |
3.3 /
7.7 |
41.2% /
30.3% |
35.3% /
33.3% |
2.4 /
3.0 |
50 /
70 |
47.2% /
38.9% |
38.0% /
41.4% |
30.2% /
38.2% |
3.0 /
5.5 |
2.0% /
1.4% |
34.0% /
47.1% |
34.6 /
33.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@MIN |
43 – 34 W |
6.6 |
56.8% /
59.3% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
0.0% /
4.0% |
8.3 /
9.2 |
65.6% /
72.7% |
6.3% /
9.1% |
4.9 /
6.1 |
76 /
49 |
63.9% /
69.0% |
60.5% /
65.3% |
48.5% /
51.8% |
6.9 /
7.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.1% /
44.9% |
33.6 /
22.8 |
| 2 |
DET |
42 – 21 W |
5.7 |
54.8% /
45.9% |
3.2% /
10.8% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
7.4 /
5.9 |
57.1% /
61.9% |
8.6% /
14.3% |
7.4 /
4.2 |
66 /
58 |
58.8% /
53.3% |
56.1% /
51.7% |
58.2% /
37.1% |
7.4 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.0% /
36.2% |
28.0 /
20.0 |
| 3 |
@NO |
37 – 30 W |
1.6 |
54.5% /
50.0% |
3.0% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
7.2 |
50.0% /
50.0% |
26.9% /
15.0% |
3.8 /
6.1 |
59 /
58 |
55.6% /
51.1% |
52.5% /
50.0% |
50.9% /
33.2% |
6.3 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
44.1% /
34.5% |
33.9 /
28.9 |
| 4 |
ATL |
30 – 16 W |
10.5 |
61.8% /
53.5% |
2.9% /
9.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.3 /
5.8 |
34.6% /
48.0% |
34.6% /
24.0% |
3.4 /
3.1 |
60 /
68 |
50.0% /
57.7% |
50.0% /
51.5% |
46.2% /
10.4% |
6.7 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.3% /
36.8% |
32.6 /
23.4 |
| 6 |
@TB |
10 – 38 L |
-13.0 |
35.0% /
46.4% |
12.5% /
0.0% |
5.7% /
0.0% |
2.7 /
5.9 |
38.1% /
45.7% |
42.9% /
8.6% |
4.5 /
4.5 |
61 /
63 |
34.1% /
49.0% |
36.1% /
46.0% |
32.3% /
42.3% |
3.3 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.4% /
55.6% |
23.6 /
32.9 |
| 7 |
@HOU |
35 – 20 W |
14.2 |
58.8% /
59.5% |
0.0% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.3 /
6.8 |
59.3% /
36.4% |
22.2% /
27.3% |
3.6 /
3.6 |
61 /
64 |
61.7% /
55.1% |
59.0% /
51.6% |
40.4% /
29.9% |
6.2 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
44.3% /
34.4% |
26.1 /
30.8 |
| 8 |
MIN |
22 – 28 L |
-3.6 |
52.4% /
60.0% |
2.4% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
10.1 |
58.3% /
55.9% |
8.3% /
20.6% |
4.5 /
5.1 |
66 /
49 |
57.1% /
57.5% |
54.5% /
57.1% |
27.0% /
42.3% |
6.1 /
6.6 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
36.4% /
69.4% |
27.8 /
24.6 |
| 9 |
@SF |
34 – 17 W |
15.7 |
53.1% /
41.7% |
3.1% /
2.8% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
9.2 /
7.8 |
41.9% /
52.9% |
19.4% /
23.5% |
3.6 /
3.2 |
63 /
53 |
46.9% /
50.0% |
47.6% /
45.3% |
53.6% /
52.8% |
6.4 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
49.2% /
32.1% |
29.0 /
27.8 |
| 10 |
JAC |
24 – 20 W |
0.5 |
51.4% /
39.5% |
2.9% /
7.9% |
2.9% /
2.9% |
9.0 /
4.0 |
44.0% /
47.8% |
24.0% /
8.7% |
3.2 /
4.7 |
60 /
61 |
54.5% /
46.8% |
48.3% /
42.6% |
49.6% /
23.8% |
6.6 /
4.3 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
41.7% /
37.7% |
24.7 /
34.1 |
| 11 |
@IND |
31 – 34 L |
5.0 |
53.8% /
51.4% |
2.6% /
2.7% |
2.6% /
2.8% |
7.7 /
7.6 |
72.2% /
45.9% |
16.7% /
32.4% |
3.7 /
3.8 |
57 /
74 |
68.2% /
48.2% |
59.6% /
48.6% |
44.4% /
37.9% |
6.4 /
5.7 |
5.3% /
1.4% |
31.6% /
50.0% |
28.6 /
41.6 |
Chicago Bears
@ 
Green Bay Packers