Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Chicago (-3) over DETROIT

Backup quarterback Tim Boyle made a great case for Jared Goff being a competent QB in a terrible situation last week. Boyle had only a 4.2-yard average depth of target against the Browns and averaged 3.4 yppp. Jared Goff is in line to return for the Thanksgiving game, but Chicago’s defense is built to stop the Lions passing attack. Roquan Smith leads all linebackers with 4 forced incompletions and is a wrecking ball against opposing tight ends/running backs. The Bears are conceding just 5.4 yards per target to opposing TEs (4th) and they’ve allowed only 317 receiving yards to opposing RBs all season. Tight end TJ Hockenson leads Detroit with 73 targets and the Lions target running backs on 27.9% of passes (2nd).

Andy Dalton is averaging only 5.5 yppp since the start of last season but that is an upgrade over Justin Fields, who was averaging 5.0 yards per pass play before being declared out due to an injury to his ribs. However, WR Allen Robinson (hamstring) is likely out, leaving Dalton short on weapons. Chicago has just a 51.8% pass rate (31st) and won’t have much success on the ground versus a Lions rush defense ranked 4th.

Our model favors the Bears by 5.7 points, with a predicted total of 43.9 points. It’s interesting to note that the favorite is 17-0 straight up and 15-2 ATS (with the 2 dog covers by just 0.5 points and 1.5 points) in Detroit’s Thanksgiving Day games since 2004.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bears
Lions

CHI

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 30.70 34.60
Succ Pass Plays 40.4% 45.1%
Sack Rate 11.7% 8.7%
Int Rate 3.3% 1.6%
Deep Pass Rate 20.0% 17.6%
Big Pass Yards 42.1% 41.3%
NYPP 5.07 6.38

Rush

Rush Plays 28.60 28.60
RB YPR 4.18 4.25
Stuff Rate 25.9% 24.1%
Succ Rush Plays 49.3% 50.0%
Big Rush Yards 44.2% 46.3%
Yards Per Rush 4.62 4.29

Game

All Snaps 59.30 63.20
Early Down Succ 50.1% 50.5%
Succ Rate 44.7% 47.3%
Big Yards Rate 43.0% 43.0%
Yards Per Play 4.85 5.44
Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.99 29.63
Run Ratio 48.2% 45.3%
Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
Game Control -2.77 2.77

Points 16.00 24.30

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@LA	14 – 34 L	-10.93	55.8% / 55.6%	7.0% / 3.7%	2.5% / 0.0%	4.37 / 11.56	61.5% / 47.8%	26.9% / 34.8%	5.15 / 3.22	69 / 50	66.0% / 51.4%	58.0% / 52.0%	18.6% / 44.3%	4.67 / 7.72	1.4% / 0.0%	37.7% / 46.0%	28.38 / 32.44
2	CIN	17 – 20 L	6.62	25.9% / 41.2%	11.1% / 11.8%	4.2% / 10.0%	3.07 / 5.26	41.2% / 40.0%	32.4% / 15.0%	3.62 / 3.45	61 / 54	34.9% / 42.1%	34.4% / 40.7%	28.0% / 26.8%	3.38 / 4.59	0.0% / 1.9%	55.7% / 37.0%	39.70 / 26.64
3	@CLV	6 – 26 L	-5.84	13.8% / 47.2%	31.0% / 13.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	0.03 / 5.64	38.5% / 42.9%	23.1% / 21.4%	3.54 / 5.12	42 / 78	29.6% / 45.6%	21.4% / 44.9%	14.0% / 43.8%	1.12 / 5.36	0.0% / 0.0%	31.0% / 53.8%	26.09 / 33.55
4	DET	24 – 14 W	11.79	50.0% / 50.0%	5.6% / 9.5%	5.9% / 0.0%	10.28 / 6.14	53.8% / 52.0%	23.1% / 20.0%	4.82 / 3.60	57 / 67	59.6% / 56.9%	52.6% / 50.7%	65.5% / 40.1%	6.54 / 5.19	0.0% / 3.0%	68.4% / 37.3%	16.40 / 32.44
5	@LV	20 – 9 W	5.61	47.8% / 42.1%	8.7% / 7.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	4.74 / 4.95	45.9% / 54.5%	37.8% / 27.3%	3.86 / 3.23	60 / 60	48.9% / 55.0%	46.7% / 46.7%	9.5% / 24.9%	4.20 / 4.32	0.0% / 0.0%	61.7% / 36.7%	29.40 / 21.60
6	GB	14 – 24 L	-2.31	45.2% / 50.0%	12.9% / 11.5%	3.7% / 0.0%	4.42 / 6.50	57.7% / 51.6%	15.4% / 25.8%	5.38 / 4.97	57 / 57	55.8% / 55.3%	50.9% / 50.9%	44.6% / 43.8%	4.86 / 5.67	0.0% / 0.0%	45.6% / 54.4%	26.38 / 29.33
7	@TB	3 – 38 L	-23.96	50.0% / 43.6%	11.1% / 0.0%	9.4% / 0.0%	4.67 / 5.79	51.7% / 67.7%	31.0% / 12.9%	4.93 / 5.87	65 / 70	60.8% / 58.9%	50.8% / 54.3%	41.0% / 51.2%	4.78 / 5.83	3.1% / 1.4%	44.6% / 44.3%	23.69 / 43.58
8	SF	22 – 33 L	0.35	38.7% / 46.4%	12.9% / 0.0%	3.7% / 0.0%	4.77 / 11.50	41.7% / 42.3%	27.8% / 34.6%	4.89 / 5.58	67 / 54	37.5% / 44.2%	40.3% / 44.4%	41.9% / 67.7%	4.84 / 8.65	0.0% / 0.0%	53.7% / 48.1%	27.50 / 32.56
9	@PIT	27 – 29 L	-8.59	40.6% / 38.2%	9.4% / 11.8%	3.4% / 0.0%	8.69 / 5.15	50.0% / 43.8%	7.7% / 34.4%	5.23 / 3.28	58 / 66	50.0% / 43.2%	44.8% / 40.9%	56.4% / 47.4%	7.14 / 4.24	1.7% / 0.0%	44.8% / 48.5%	22.64 / 32.17
11	BLT	13 – 16 L	-0.47	32.4% / 40.5%	8.1% / 14.3%	0.0% / 2.8%	7.05 / 4.19	50.0% / 55.9%	25.0% / 17.6%	4.60 / 3.62	57 / 76	45.0% / 50.0%	38.6% / 47.4%	69.9% / 23.1%	6.19 / 3.93	1.8% / 0.0%	35.1% / 44.7%	0.00 / 0.00

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SF	33 – 41 L	-9.15	41.7% / 55.6%	5.0% / 3.7%	1.8% / 0.0%	5.23 / 11.52	50.0% / 39.3%	20.8% / 32.1%	4.83 / 4.68	84 / 55	50.0% / 51.1%	44.0% / 47.3%	49.3% / 57.6%	5.12 / 8.04	0.0% / 3.6%	28.6% / 50.9%	28.00 / 31.25
2	@GB	17 – 35 L	-3.29	54.1% / 60.0%	2.7% / 10.0%	2.8% / 0.0%	6.38 / 7.57	57.9% / 41.9%	10.5% / 25.8%	5.68 / 3.10	56 / 61	60.0% / 51.0%	55.4% / 50.8%	41.0% / 26.8%	6.14 / 5.30	1.8% / 0.0%	33.9% / 50.8%	25.67 / 31.90
3	BLT	17 – 19 L	-4.64	54.5% / 37.1%	6.1% / 11.4%	0.0% / 3.2%	5.82 / 7.74	40.7% / 54.5%	33.3% / 22.7%	3.44 / 5.27	60 / 57	52.0% / 53.5%	48.3% / 43.9%	31.3% / 57.3%	4.75 / 6.79	0.0% / 0.0%	45.0% / 38.6%	25.00 / 26.20
4	@CHI	14 – 24 L	-11.79	50.0% / 50.0%	9.5% / 5.6%	0.0% / 5.9%	6.14 / 10.28	52.0% / 53.8%	20.0% / 23.1%	3.60 / 4.82	67 / 57	56.9% / 59.6%	50.7% / 52.6%	40.1% / 65.5%	5.19 / 6.54	3.0% / 0.0%	37.3% / 68.4%	32.44 / 16.40
5	@MIN	17 – 19 L	-4.04	41.0% / 47.2%	10.3% / 5.6%	2.9% / 2.9%	4.62 / 7.33	54.2% / 35.7%	25.0% / 35.7%	4.50 / 4.29	63 / 64	53.1% / 44.9%	46.0% / 42.2%	25.1% / 35.2%	4.57 / 6.00	1.6% / 1.6%	38.1% / 43.8%	30.55 / 25.58
6	CIN	11 – 34 L	-13.06	46.5% / 50.0%	2.3% / 6.3%	0.0% / 3.3%	4.47 / 8.00	33.3% / 55.6%	38.9% / 16.7%	2.00 / 3.94	61 / 68	45.5% / 52.0%	42.6% / 52.9%	13.9% / 49.0%	3.74 / 5.85	0.0% / 0.0%	29.5% / 52.9%	27.00 / 30.36
7	@LA	19 – 28 L	1.35	46.2% / 54.8%	5.1% / 2.4%	5.4% / 0.0%	7.13 / 7.79	42.9% / 36.8%	25.0% / 31.6%	4.89 / 2.47	67 / 61	45.8% / 44.7%	44.8% / 49.2%	52.1% / 44.4%	6.19 / 6.13	0.0% / 0.0%	41.8% / 31.1%	29.89 / 23.22
8	PHI	6 – 44 L	-18.08	40.0% / 43.8%	15.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.28 / 7.13	44.4% / 63.0%	27.8% / 17.4%	3.17 / 5.13	58 / 62	47.2% / 59.6%	41.4% / 58.1%	12.2% / 36.3%	3.93 / 5.65	1.7% / 0.0%	31.0% / 74.2%	29.80 / 33.11
10	@PIT	16 – 16 T	-0.63	24.1% / 38.0%	13.8% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.0%	2.66 / 4.84	38.5% / 45.2%	25.6% / 16.1%	5.87 / 4.32	68 / 81	34.8% / 42.2%	32.4% / 40.7%	61.2% / 27.9%	4.50 / 4.64	0.0% / 2.5%	57.4% / 38.3%	29.93 / 28.21
11	@CLV	10 – 13 L	-5.90	30.4% / 33.3%	0.0% / 3.3%	8.7% / 6.9%	3.35 / 5.50	47.8% / 52.8%	26.1% / 19.4%	7.30 / 5.11	46 / 66	42.9% / 45.3%	39.1% / 43.9%	59.6% / 58.3%	5.33 / 5.29	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 54.5%	0.00 / 0.00

Chicago Bears @

Detroit Lions

Thu, Nov 25

9:30 AM Pacific

Game Analysis